BD2 180m
Honest Abe 20m
David wrote:
jmovies wrote:
I'm not in a place filled with the 12-18 female demographic.
By court order, no doubt.
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| November 16-18 Predictions http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=68304 |
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| Author: | David [ Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
So, in a strange twist, the final Twilight might be fairly hard to predict. |
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| Author: | movies35 [ Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
It might disappoint opening weekend and have fairly decent holds but I really think it will do GREAT opening weekend and then just nose dive, unless it is actually good and fans see it more than once. |
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| Author: | The Dark Shape [ Sun Nov 11, 2012 7:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
movies35 wrote: unless it is actually good and fans see it more than once. Which is never what happens. Deathly Hallows Part 2 had incredible reviews and managed an A CinemaScore, but it still barely pulled over a 2.0 multiplier. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Sun Nov 11, 2012 7:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
BD2 180m Honest Abe 20m David wrote: jmovies wrote: I'm not in a place filled with the 12-18 female demographic. By court order, no doubt.
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| Author: | bl1222 [ Sun Nov 11, 2012 9:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
I believe Skyfall's breakout may have put a dent a little bit into Twilight's opening. It will open better than part 1 but won't exceed $150M OW. |
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| Author: | movies35 [ Mon Nov 12, 2012 8:16 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
Why would that put a dent in Breaking Dawn? Most people seeing Skyfall wouldn't be seeing Breaking Dawn. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Mon Nov 12, 2012 8:28 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
Yeah Skyfall have 0 impact on BD. They could have opened on the same weekend and the effect would still be minimal. |
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| Author: | CowboyFromHell [ Mon Nov 12, 2012 8:48 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
I agree with Jack Sparrow and movies35, Skyfall won't affect BD's OW - completely different audience. Skyfall skewed older male anyhow. 60% male, 75% over age 25. |
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| Author: | movies35 [ Mon Nov 12, 2012 10:04 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
I don't know about you, but I've seen PLENTY of Grandpas on bro dates seeing the previous Twilight films. 
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| Author: | CowboyFromHell [ Mon Nov 12, 2012 10:08 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Mon Nov 12, 2012 12:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
movies35 wrote: I don't know about you, but I've seen PLENTY of Grandpas on bro dates seeing the previous Twilight films. All kidding aside, I believe there's a certain older niche demographic that will come out for this, but only for the late shows. 
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| Author: | Crux [ Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
Magic Mike wrote: movies35 wrote: I don't know about you, but I've seen PLENTY of Grandpas on bro dates seeing the previous Twilight films. All kidding aside, I believe there's a certain older niche demographic that will come out for this, but only for the late shows. Is that because they don't want to seem creepy for liking a tween vampire-werewolf movie? |
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| Author: | bl1222 [ Tue Nov 13, 2012 11:17 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
mtc 150 twilight 17 lincoln {nm} notfabio on Nov 12, 18:29 rs twilight mid 160s {nm} notfabio on Nov 12, 18:30 No RS number available for Lincoln. |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Tue Nov 13, 2012 12:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
Hm, percentage-wise the difference isn't much for Breaking Dawn, so that's still pretty good. That'd be a really nice opening for Lincoln. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Tue Nov 13, 2012 2:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
Tracking has proved to be useless when it comes to HUGE movies. Still those are concerning signs for Twilight but then again the probability does state that the numbers are close to MTC most of the times and even with those numbers BD2 will become biggest opener of the series. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Tue Nov 13, 2012 3:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
The MTC vs RS difference could indicate anything as low as $140m or as high as $160m. Will probably be close to the MTC number. Who is more accurate for these mega openers? |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Tue Nov 13, 2012 5:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
There is no way it opens lower than BD1. I think a slightly bigger opening from New Moon for $145m (still a decrease of audience) |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Tue Nov 13, 2012 7:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
I don't believe BD2 will end up very high in the end but it looks like the first 6 reviews are positive including THR and Variety. Would be interesting to see if there is any slight impact on the legs if this movie turns out good. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Tue Nov 13, 2012 7:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
Crux wrote: Magic Mike wrote: movies35 wrote: I don't know about you, but I've seen PLENTY of Grandpas on bro dates seeing the previous Twilight films. All kidding aside, I believe there's a certain older niche demographic that will come out for this, but only for the late shows. Is that because they don't want to seem creepy for liking a tween vampire-werewolf movie? It's because they're grampires, duh .
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Tue Nov 13, 2012 8:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
Jack Sparrow wrote: I don't believe BD2 will end up very high in the end but it looks like the first 6 reviews are positive including THR and Variety. Would be interesting to see if there is any slight impact on the legs if this movie turns out good. Legs will likely be no better than they were for any of the sequels. But I am impressed the first 6 reviews are positive. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Tue Nov 13, 2012 8:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
1. BREAKING DAWN: PART 2 - 138.96 MILLION (New) 2. SKYFALL - 46.83 MILLION (-47%) 3. WRECK-IT RALPH - 23.77 MILLION (-28%) 4. LINCOLN - 17 MILLION (New - To wide release anyway) 5. FLIGHT - 9.9 MILLION (-33%) 6. ARGO - 4.7 MILLION (-29%) 7. TAKEN 2 - 2.648 MILLION (-34%) 8. PITCH PERFECT - 1.749 MILLION (-32%) 9. HERE COMES THE BOOM - 1.69 MILLION (-33%) 10. CLOUD ATLAS - 1.3 MILLION (-51%) I hope Summit fudges the numbers for PERKS a bit and gives it enough to place it at #10 . It actually could be if it weren't for CLOUD ATLAS. Should be able to do above $900,000 for the weekend which will be better than the other holdovers, IMO.
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Wed Nov 14, 2012 4:45 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
I still can't believe people are doing the same mistake of underestimating BD2's OW. The same thing happened with DH2. I think this will out open New Moon for sure. May not breakout as big as HP (because of 3D) but the opening day will be huge. |
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| Author: | Riggs [ Wed Nov 14, 2012 5:23 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
I know this will probably open bigger but right now BD2 feels like a ~120M opener to me. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Wed Nov 14, 2012 5:36 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
I don't really sense an insane amount of buzz. It will do great but I only see a slight increase in opening over the last. I do think Thursday night showings will do better than for the last because 10:00 is a much more reasonable time for a school night than midnight. |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Wed Nov 14, 2012 6:08 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: November 16-18 Predictions |
BTW, Pitch Perfect will probably drop big. It held this well last weekend because there is literally nothing out there for female audiences. But with Twilight out now... |
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