Total Recall: 23
Wimpy Kid: 20

TDKR: -42%

TR definitely should have been the film to move back a week, this should be Bourne's weekend to anchor the end of the summer, they shouldn't have been so scared of DKR.

I think there's a very strong chance Diary upsets, I see:
Wimpy Kid- 24m
Total Recall- 21m

It would be pretty pathetic to miss JC and BS by millions, but it's about as unappealing, mediocre, and unexciting as those were and seems in a similar position of being overshadowed by more accessible less risky options for movie-goers.

The part with Kate looks weak, if they were to do anything interesting with the concept you would expect a hint in the trailer, and the more I see of it the more generic it looks. Still that's enough for venom towards a movie you will never see.

TR - 31m
WK - 22m

MTC
Total Recall: 31
Diary: 17
mtc 31 total 17 diary aurora effect continues {nm} notfabio on Jul 30, 14:57

What is RS? Hopefully lower for TR.

RS:



http://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=195369

Hmm.

To make more clear:
He meant that Total recall is in the mid 30s for Rs, and Wimpy is slightly higher.

Taking Pelham 123 tracked at 30 for MTC and similar numbers to TR for RS, but debuted with $23 million. I see similar numbers to it. Still, not good if the $200M budget rumor is true.

Hm... would be interesting if Total Recall somehow didn't do so bad. I think I've seen the trailer for every movie I've seen in the last 3 months besides Ruby Sparks and Brave.

TR 25m
DWK3 15m

TDKR 40m (fingers crossed)

Any RS future?

Does that mean Wimpy is a slightly higher than mid-30's for RS tracking? If that is the case then it sounds trouble for Wimpy. I haven't seen much marketing for this one but I believe the audience that have invested in previous two movies will surely catch this one, which make $23m highly likely maybe a little more. But RS>> MTC generally does not mean good in most of the cases.

No, he meant RS is $1m higher on Wimpy than MTC, so $18m.

Yeah that makes more sense, which is still kinda disappointing for it IMO. I thought given the previous two movies opening consistently we will see a slight increase in summer for $25m opening. Could still happen though given the tracking is not very accurate with family movies.

Just looked at the Fandango 5 (http://www.fandango.com/top10fanratedmovies), both openers appeared on there as of 2:34PM EST Today. They definitely look good for $20M+ openers for now. Good for Wimpy Kid 3 but not for Total Recall as Sony reported a $100M+ budget.

Final Derby predictions:

1. The Dark Knight Rises - 34.5 million
2. Total Recall - 24.06
3. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days - 19.4
4. Ice Age: Continental Drift - 8.8
5. The Watch - 6.7
6. Ted - 5.4
7. Step Up Revolution - 5.3
8. The Amazing Spider-Man - 4.2
9. Brave - 2.9
10. Magic Mike - 1.6

I just hope IA4 holds up well this weekend otherwise chances of $150m are looking quite slim.

Recall sucks, according to critics. Seems obvious now, but I was really hoping we'd get another Rise of the Apes here.

Diary of a Wimpy Kid - 17.13M

Total Recall - 28.88M

My Predictions for this weekend:

1. The Dark Knight Rises - 36.66M (-41.0%)
2. Total Recall - 24.41M (NEW)
3. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days - 20.99M (NEW)
4. Ice Age: Continental Drift - 9.07M (-32.1%)
5. The Watch - 7.21M (-43.5%)
6. Ted - 5.33M (-27.5%)
7. Step Up Revolution - 5.84M (-50.2%)
8. The Amazing Spider-Man - 4.15M (-38.1%)
9. Brave - 3.18M (-26.1%)
10. Magic Mike - 1.29M (-50.7%)