Every member of this club seems to be saying "I know it doesn't make any sense, and I'm actually predicting less than 300 million, but because there's no consequence if this ship inevitably fails, I'm in!"

Nothing personal, fellas, but I don't think this thing stands a snowball's chance in hell. Super 8 could still be a hit, but it could be a hit if it makes it to 160 million, let alone 300.

I'm predicting 300 mil.

I have a very scientific reason, too: It's going to fucking happen!

This really doesn't have as much going for it as Inception, though. We're all banking on phenomenal WOM, but isn't it possible that won't be the case?

I doubt it.

Sure, there's always the chance word-of-mouth won't be through-the-roof. Anything can happen (cue sinister music). But this one...just from its "vibe" and the people involved, I'm convinced it'll be a W.O.M. hit.

Super 8 registered only 800 tweets last week, down 55% from the week prior. For a film that allegedly has "vibe", it's going in the wrong direction.

Super 8 has to face two more alien blockbusters in it's first month. I have it at $175M in the summer game, which to me seemed like a great total until you came up with $300M.

I was referring to its hypothetical W.O.M., not its current buzz. My point: this movie, with its whole classic-Spielberg angle and Abrams' track record, will probably get amazing word-of-mouth.

And, people, it's just a club. It's fun. Maybe this will gross 150 mil. or so. A solid, undeniable hit, nothing to be ashamed of, etc. But maybe every element--reviews, W.O.M., staying power, the performance of other movies--will, as if by magic, click into place and this will be one of those out-of-the-blue, bigger-than-expected hits (Jurassic Park, ID4, Iron Man).

Sure, this club is a stretch and shit, but all you people shuffling your papers and saying, "I don't know, Bernie, Twitter tracking just isn't where it should be this far out. This won't pass muster with the shareholders!" are being boring.

It could happen. It's just a club.

Then it'll fail as BKB's usually do, and we'll all have to a Scarlet Letter or some shit. But right now it's fun to be in this club because I have faith Super 8 will be a massive breakout hit, even if 300 mil. ends up being too distant a finish line.

The "Bad Twitter numbers!" card this early is ridiculous, though.

Again, I'm fine with a ballsy club. These threads are a way for someone to say a movie is being underpredicted, and I like specifically talking about one film in detail.

just saying that when there's no stakes, it's easy to say "Fuck logic, I'm in!" And that's why it's so fun to bring up the possible fallacies in such a 'club.'

I guess every schoolyard needs its spoilsports...

No, no, I get what you're saying.

Out. I don't think this will get half way to 300M. The reason is every time I've seen the trailer with a substantial crowd, it has gotten either a WTF? reaction, or no reaction at all. It was the same last night for Thor. I think best case scenario is it opening to 50M and legging it out to 200M. But I think a 30-40M opening with a 100-130M finish is more likely.

Early buzz...

For the most part, pretty gloving reactions.

Great so far, and im not suprised Devin is the lone hater.

As for me this movie is expected to have good reviews and strong legs, the opening is a bit concerning for this club. If this opens below $60m I don't see it making more than multiplier of 5 with such strong competition.

This movie will go up and up by the minute!!!
300 mil - Im in!!!

it does not feel like trek at all. That was buzzing at this point.

Marketing here hasn't been very strong. I don't think people really know what is coming that weekend and if this movie is infact from Spielberg. The trailers keeping suspense might not be a good thing as these kind of movies can get lost very soon in OS markets.

I'm not seeing 300 Million. After all it's an original movie with no major stars.

Having said that: After seeing the movie today, I am pretty convinced this will have tremendous legs. I hope it will be a monster hit, so I am in...

I'm in. Can I still be in? I want in.

I can tell this is going to be the Plan B film of 2011.