updated based on weekend estimates and more thought:

Borat - $170 (better than The Waterboy, but can't see it beating Elf just yet)
The Departed - $157 (after Mystic River had a $7.8 million weekend, it made $65 million more)

Both movie will make the top ten of 2006.

This is really close and I have no clue currently. After Borat's second weekend things will be more clear. Currently, I am guessing Borat will win this.

It won't be able to hold onto theaters against the Nov competition with a PTA that will be under $2,500. It needs a multiplier of nearly 5 for here on just to reach my prediction. I'm assuming that they are smart enough to have it on DVD in Feb (where they will sell a huge number of DVDs) rather than theaters (where they will earn an extra 30m-40m or so).



About 35m of that with an Oscar re-release.

WB faked the numbers so far anyway, so why should they stop?

Best argument in support of The Departed yet.

I give up.

It's Borat. I waited until the weekend actuals to see if there was anything that might make me think Departed might win, but there is nothing left. Departed will end up around $130-135m on its current projectory and without outside help can't expect much more. I personally don't see another oscar expansion rerelease, but I don't even think that will help it. Borat looks poised to make a strong run at $200m+ if this week's expansion pans out. Even if it is less than I expect, I don't see Borat falling below $160m. Blair Witch and F 9/11 are comparable films after the first week and Borat will blow past them, because the WOM is just phenomonal compared to those two movies, also being comedy has better repeat value. We could have a movie on our hands like the comedies of the 70s (Animal House, Young Frankenstein, Blazing Saddles), I doubt it makes it to $300m which those movies did adjusted for inflation, but it might get close in the $250-270m range. The yahoo and IMDB scores are just like nothing I have seen for a comedy (I didn't follow these things that closely when Something About Mary was rereleased).

Well, The Departed has probably about 20-30 mil left to go in it's run. So it's gonna fall at about $135 mil or a little less.

Borat is gonna jump up to about $30 or so mil next weekend. That's gonna bring it's total to probably about $70 mil. Then a third weekend of let's say $20 mil and a 2nd week of $20 mil... that's $110 mil...

It's gonna be an easy knockout by Borat.

The Departed is going to get squeezed this weeekend with 6 movies going wide or expanding to over 800+ theaters. So, it may not drop many actual theaters. I am guessing approx. 300-400, but it could be much worse. However, it will lose showings and screens in the theaters it retains. It will have a hard time keeping the low drops it has had since it opened and after this weekend it will be looking at approx. a $5million weekend at best and trying to fight for screen space in a crowded field.

Not much worse, but not real good either (this was a brutal weekend). It is starting to drop theaters and it will fall behind the numbers needed to build up a solid lead on Borat if it is unable to retain theaters.

Borat
Nov 3–5 1 $26,455,463 - 837 - $31,607 $26,455,463 1
Day 6-$35,683,797

The Departed
Oct 6–8 1 $26,887,467 - 3,017 - $8,911 $26,887,467 1
Day 6-$35,632,521

The Departed had a $0.4m lead over the 1st weekend and has already given it up. The Departed had the advantage of Columbus Day its first Monday too. Considering Borat was able to do all this on 837 theaters, I just don't see it how the Departed can continue to compete with Borat. Unless, Borat bombs this weekend, which can not be completely discarded until we see some Friday numbers.

On Friday, its 36th day of release, Borat outgrossed The Departed.

11 7 Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan Fox $2,571,596 -45.8% 1,594 -643 $1,613 $120,266,165 $18 6

20 18 The Departed WB $438,302 -46.9% 355 -217 $1,234 $118,740,373 $90 10

Unless The Departed's awards run is pretty successful (which I highly doubt), I don't think The Departed will be able to catch up with Borat.

No way Borat will make more than Departed, because it won't have any boost in January. Departed is going to get a wide expansion before Oscar nominations, so 130M is a lock for it. And 130M is also Borat's ceiling.

How much do you think a re-release could possibly earn The Departed?

Besides, they're looking at maybe one major nomination (Director) and possibly a screenplay nom. I'd be shocked if Best Picture was a possibility.

Departed will almost for sure be nominated for BP. And the expansion it'll get is a wide one. That means at least 800 theatres, but most likely something between 1000 and 2000. Add a PTA of 2000+ and February legs, which are always good for movies awaiting Oscar results.

Still, the films that have typically gotten the biggest bump from Oscar noms are those that underperformed in their initial run. Babel or Flags of Our Fathers would probably double their current take if they were to earn a nomination.

The Departed reminds me more of WB's reissue of The Fugitive back in early 94.

With a DVD release in Feb (a week before the Oscars), I just can't see it pulling in big numbers.

Wait...do you consider 10M+ a big number?

If The Departed made 10 million in a re-issue - absolutely. That would be a massive number.

Okay, then it'll do massively well.

I personally think with that release Departed will obtain something like 20/35M. I expect a 2,000 TC with a 3,000PTA on the first weekend of expansion, then some great hold until the end of February followed by strong drops (unless it wins BP). 130M is a lock for it, imo.

Borat will end up with $128-$130m.

I see The Departed beating it once its re-released in January.

I wouldn't be so confident about The Departed being re-released...I'd love to see it, but I'm just not sure it will happen, at least on a scale larger than 500-600 theaters or so...

I doubt they will release it. WB would make more money putting it on DVD in Janurary or Feburary than re-releasing. Studios don't care about stuff like that anymore, especially with DVD profits involved.

In modern times, what non arthouse/non-under performing films have made that much in an Oscar-time rerelease? I'm drawing a blank.

Well it is scheduled for a re-release. Though how many theatres it will get is unknown.

January 5:
Home of the Brave MGM- Wide
Breaking and Entering Weinstein Company - LA, NYC
Miss Potter MGM (Weinstein) - Limited
The Painted Veil Warner Independent - Expansion
Venus Miramax - Expansion

January 12:
Miss Potter MGM (Weinstein) - Wide
Letters from Iwo Jima Warner Bros. - Wave 2 - Limited
The Painted Veil Warner Independent - Expansion

January 19:
The Last King of Scotland Fox Searchlight - Wide
The Departed Warner Bros. - Wide Academy Run
Dreamgirls Paramount (DreamWorks) - Expansion
The Good German Warner Bros. - Expansion
The Painted Veil Warner Independent - Expansion

January 26:
Breaking and Entering Weinstein Company - Wide
Letters from Iwo Jima Warner Bros. - Wave 3 - Limited

I need some comparisions. Though I still think 130M are in the bag, whatever the comparison.