Corpse, attempting a jump scare on me. I pray for those numbers to hold

All the best for tomorrow actuals...

Sharing the IMAX screen count for each would be cool. Since most are recent, they should be ~36-38 screens, I think. As would the JPY totals (if you got them) since comparing USD totals for films released after March 2022 to anything before has become subject to the awful exchange rate.

Also, this chart is very representative of how the market has really shifted away from Hollywood in general (which began roughly around 2009 or so), and how it strongly favors Japanese (animated) films in recent years. It takes major breakouts (TGM and Bohemian Rhapsody having very similar sort of runs that stretched out to a full year) for Hollywood to really achieve big grosses anymore, whereas the next big Japanese animated film keep putting up huge numbers.

Here are my daily estimates for the 4-day, by the way, and below vs what ComScore's weekend figure would roughly equal:

How Do You Live? - Daily Estimates:

¥450m (Fri) / 315,000
¥510m (Sat) / 350,000
¥565m (Sun) / 390,000
¥505m (Mon) / 370,000 *holiday*

3-Day OW: ¥1.525b ($11.1m) / 1,055,000
4-Day Holiday OW: ¥2.030b ($14.8m) / 1,425,000

*Versus what the ComScore numbers (revenue) would roughly equal*

¥540m (Fri)
¥605m (Sat)
¥670m (Sun)
¥600m (Mon) *holiday*

3-Day OW: ¥1.815b ($13.2m)
4-Day Holiday OW: ¥2.415b ($17.6m)

Actuals will be released tomorrow / *possibly* a little after noon today (or midnight for many here I think) in the news outlets.

How Do You Live?

¥2.14B / 1.35M admits (4-Days Total)

Yep just as I suspected and maybe feared.

The data from Mimorin didn't add up.

That's a really high ticket average though. 1585 yen

Yeah, don't be disappointed it didn't come in at that ComScore number. Would have been cool, but it also looked suspiciously high. Sort of does look like they added the IMAX gross to its opening twice now... Sorry for predicting that, Kanroji!

Breaking ¥2 billion (¥2.1b to boot) over four days is super impressive. That'll be, probably, right about ¥1.6 billion for the 3-day OW.

Far too early to make any total predictions... but it'll at least get over ¥10 billion with that, has a good shot at outgrossing his last film, The Wind Rises, and will probably be aiming for that ¥13/14 billion range that's become a popular end point for the uber-blockbusters in the past couple years. A whopping six films since 2021 have either ended or are currently looking to end in this range (Mario, Detective Conan, and Slam Dunk are still playing and in this range right now), excluding HDYL for now so it could be seven.

Can it gross more than that and go for ¥15 billion? It could, ¥15 billion+ earners are rarely predictable, so we need to see a lot more numbers before predicting that much. One very early good sign is that Tuesday is currently looking really strong coming off the holiday Monday. It's holding better than every film in the top 10 (and likely beyond) right now.

Quite Surprised as the film didn't debut on Top 10.

Well, a bit of annoyed though about the numbers of How Do You Live? But Avg. Ticket Price was as High as I expect though my second thought of strong rural performance came wrong to match ComScore Numbers.

And again, I will look into JPY total for IMAX numbers

FSS came ¥1.626B / 1.003M admits

4-Days - ¥2.149B / 1.353M admits

The First Slam Dunk is now surpass Suzume with ¥14.84B and counting, truly a great late leg.

Regarding if HDYL will breakthrough ¥15B barrier or not, yes it's too soon to say, but just like the movie's promotional strategy itself, the less you know about it, the more exciting you guess about it.
So I'll guess the answer is yes. I rely on the mid leg boost events, Venice film premiere (and with any luck it might win in some categories) and the decision to make this movie a representative of Japan's foreign picture oscar nominee. And the late leg events, which is the Oscar season, and the Japan Academy Prize awards.

「君たちはどう生きるか」が、空前の大ヒットである。７月１４日から１７日までの４日間で、興収２１億４９３１万円を記録した。「千と千尋の神隠し」の４日間成績を上回る。「宣伝なし」、数字からは成功と見ていい。

¥2,149.31M for 4-Days Total (We are slowly closing nearer to actual)

How do you know Ghibli intends to submit it for best foreign language film at the Oscars?
I seem to remember they put Pom Poko forward and Princess Mononoke, with no luck. I wonder what makes them think this will make it through to the final nomination list?
They had a better chance with Spirited Away but I don't know if they bothered submitting it for consideration in that category?

Ghibli knows this film is in high demand in western countries, especially among cinephile
The other rival for this year is Monster by Hirokazu Kore-eda, but unlike his previous film Shoplifters which won the biggest Cannes prize Palme d'Or and went on become Oscar's nominee, Monster only won best screenplay at Cannes. Also, Monster's box office performance is very bad, like less than a billion yen or something? Can't confirm since it had only 325M on the opening weekend and then flew out of radar.

Monster did ¥1.835B / 1.34M admits until 9 July. Until Mon, it has crossed ¥1.9B and more I believe

SLAM DUNK had 3% increase on 33rd Weekend over 32nd Weekend.

32nd Weekend - ¥34,379,150

Oh, that's double of my estimated upper limit but still HDYL made that amount in 4 days.

I'm pretty sure HDYL is not going to be at Venice though, correct me if I'm wrong

No official announcement yet but it seems you're right according to
https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2023/7 ... eg2ww5coj1

Though just two days ago this very source just said the opposite

Will edit with the full actual later.

Also, its opening (3-day) is very, very close to Weathering With You, and since both opened on the same weekend, it's probably the best film to track it against. (It would be Spirited Away for the same reason, plus also being Ghibli/Miyazaki, but I assume it won't be a good comparison for obvious reasons unless HDYL ends up being something crazy special like it.)

Biggest Opening Weekends Of All Time (3-Day):

01. ¥4,623,117,450 ($43.9 million) / 3,420,493 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Oct., 2020)
02. ¥3,146,387,340 ($23.5 million) / 2,176,407 - Detective Conan: The Black Iron Submarine (Apr., 2023)
03. ¥2,694,128,150 ($23.6 million) / 1,908,053 - Jujustu Kaisen 0 (Dec., 2021)
04. ¥2,279,300,000 ($18.7 million) / 1,625,000 - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (July, 2007) *previews incl.*
05. ¥2,218,130,800 ($20.4 million) / 1,533,054 - Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet (Apr., 2021)
06. ¥1,939,746,600 ($17.8 million) / 1,452,530 - Frozen II (Nov., 2019)
07. ¥1,938,977,200 ($15.9 million) / 1,486,413 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (May, 2007)
08. ¥1,907,461,750 ($15.1 million) / 1,321,944 - Detective Conan: The Bride of Halloween (Apr., 2022)
09. ¥1,886,292,700 ($17.0 million) / 1,458,000 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Apr., 2019)
10. ¥1,884,215,620 ($13.2 million) / 1,331,081 - Suzume (Nov., 2022)
11. ¥1,842,783,160 ($13.5 million) / 1,276,139 - The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Apr., 2023)
12. ¥1,787,960,000 ($15.5 million) / 544,126 - Arashi Anniversary Tour 5x20 FILM "Record of Memories" (Nov., 2021) *previews incl.*
13. ¥1,760,739,450 ($22.2 million) / 1,197,669 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (July, 2011)
14. ¥1,706,860,000 ($15.7 million) / 1,270,000 - Toy Story 4 (July, 2019)
15. ¥1,671,136,900 ($15.6 million) / 1,289,000 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018)
16. ¥1,645,187,050 ($14.4 million) / 1,231,349 - Spirited Away (July, 2001)
17. ¥1,643,809,400 ($15.2 million) / 1,159,202 - Weathering With You (July, 2019)
18. ¥1,626,000,000 ($11.7 million) / 1,003,000 - How Do You Live? (July, 2023)
19. ¥1,619,340,000 ($13.4 million) / 1,044,330 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015)
20. ¥1,617,174,500 ($14.4 million) / 1,058,269 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017)
21. ¥1,570,460,000 ($14.4 million) / 1,018,851 - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Dec., 2019)
22. ¥1,548,330,900 ($13.9 million) / 1,160,000 - Code Blue (July, 2018)
23. ¥1,518,433,400 ($18.6 million) / 969,007 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (May, 2011)
24. ¥1,474,675,000 ($12.9 million) / 997,076 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018)
25. ¥1,471,934,500 ($13.0 million) / 1,000,793 - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Nov., 2018)
26. ¥1,467,000,000 ($13.3 million) / 957,000 - Avengers: Endgame (Apr., 2019)
27. ¥1,430,954,460 ($16.7 million) / 939,950 - Umizaru: The Last Message (Sept., 2010)
28. ¥1,396,000,000 ($12.9 million) / 960,000 - Aladdin (June, 2019)
29. ¥1,378,765,600 ($12.6 million) / 951,214 - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017)
30. ¥1,367,174,950 ($11.9 million) / 900,173 - Spider-Man: No Way Home (Jan., 2022)
31. ¥1,295,123,510 ($9.7 million) / 840,487 - Jurassic World: Dominion (July, 2022)
32. ¥1,261,860,700 ($11.9 million) / 936,793 - One Piece: Stampede (Aug., 2019)
33. ¥1,176,047,100 ($14.1 million) / 961,961 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 1 (Nov., 2010)
34. ¥1,157,564,620 ($9.1 million) / 747,192 - Top Gun: Maverick (May, 2022)
35. ¥1,118,164,160 ($14.2 million) / 874,798 - Umizaru: Brave Hearts (July, 2012)
36. ¥1,093,932,650 ($7.9 million) / 725,000 - Kingdom II: To Distant Lands (July, 2022)
37. ¥1,055,733,460 ($8.5 million) / 685,197 - Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (Apr., 2022)
38. ¥1,050,805,000 ($9.3 million) / 824,208 - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Dec., 2018)
39. ¥1,009,949,700 ($9.3 million) / 669,304 - Spider-Man: Far From Home (June, 2019)


**********

Note: If we get a weekend breakdown, I'll include 2023-Present films on the retired Opening Weekend Chart below too, just not rank them since it's not an official ranking anymore.

Biggest Opening Weekends Of All Time (2-Day) [Past-2022] - RETIRED:

Biggest Animated Film Opening Weekends (1997-):

-Films released from 2022 or earlier = 2-Day
-Films released from 2023 or later = 3-Day

01. ¥3.354 billion ($31.9 million) / 2,509,986 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020)
02. ¥3.146 billion ($23.5 million) / 2,176,407 - Detective Conan: The Black Iron Submarine (2023)*
03. ¥2.254 billion ($16.7 million) / 1,579,552 - One Piece Film Red (2022)
04. ¥1.842 billion ($13.5 million) / 1,276,139 - The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023)*
05. ¥1.629 billion ($14.0 million) / 1,484,916 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
06. ¥1.626 billion ($11.7 million) / 1,003,000 - How Do You Live? (2023)*
07. ¥1.622 billion ($14.2 million) / 1,135,829 - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (2021)
08. ¥1.616 billion ($14.9 million) / 1,210,000 - Frozen II (2019)
09. ¥1.609 billion ($14.8 million) / 1,122,000 - Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet (2021)
10. ¥1.484 billion ($14.0 million) / 1,104,980 - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
11. ¥1.464 billion ($13.1 million) / 1,144,539 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
12. ¥1.386 billion ($9.9 million) / 982,631 - Suzume (2022)
13. ¥1.384 billion ($11.0 million) / 966,367 - Detective Conan: The Bride of Halloween (2022)
14. ¥1.377 billion ($12.7 million) / 1,031,000 - Toy Story 4 (2019)
15. ¥1.372 billion ($16.7 million) / 1,140,081 - One Piece Film Z (2012)
16. ¥1.296 billion ($12.1 million) / 1,012,000 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
17. ¥1.296 billion ($9.6 million) / 846,687 - The First Slam Dunk (2022)
18. ¥1.287 billion ($11.9 million) / 987,568 - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
19. ¥1.209 billion ($11.1 million) / 933,781 - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
20. ¥1.185 billion ($11.0 million) / 830,000 - Weathering With You (2019)
21. ¥1.177 billion ($10.8 million) / 760,882 - Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (2021)
22. ¥1.155 billion ($11.0 million) / 820,830 - One Piece Film Gold (2016)
23. ¥1.133 billion ($14.1 million) / 771,764 - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (2012)
24. ¥1.094 billion ($9.6 million) / 798,278 - Spirited Away (2001)
25. ¥1.058 billion ($8.7 million) / 974,557 - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
26. ¥1.038 billion ($11.9 million) / 819,738 - One Piece Film Strong World (2009)
27. ¥1.034 billion ($9.8 million) / 812,557 - Ponyo (2008)
28. ¥977.3 million ($11.1 million) / 649,249 - Toy Story 3 (2010)
29. ¥960.9 million ($9.8 million) / 747,451 - The Wind Rises (2013)
30. ¥960.6 million ($8.1 million) / 715,727 - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (2015)
31. ¥930.0 million ($9.2 million) / 688,079 - Your Name. (2016)
32. ¥907.4 million ($7.9 million) / 672,696 - Tales from Earthsea (2006)
33. ¥898.0 million ($8.4 million) / 724,000 - Finding Nemo (2003)
34. ¥895.6 million ($10.4 million) / 680,190 - Arrietty (2010)
35. ¥874.8 million ($7.4 million) / 688,623 - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (2015)
36. ¥847.5 million ($8.4 million) / 614,969 - Monsters University (2013)
37. ¥843.1 million ($7.9 million) / 716,629 - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (2018)
38. ¥812.7 million ($7.2 million) / 639,000 - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (2018)
39. ¥806.0 million ($7.9 million) / 598,000 - One Piece: Stampede (2019)
40. ¥789.3 million ($7.8 million) / 649,865 - Detective Conan: Dimensional Sniper (2014)
41. ¥780.9 million ($6.5 million) / 742,978 - Pokemon D&P: The Rise of Darkrai (2007)
42. ¥767.2 million ($7.6 million) / 554,991 - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)
43. ¥763.4 million ($7.5 million) / 602,347 - Frozen (2014)
44. ¥751.8 million ($7.3 million) / 604,355 - The Incredibles (2004)
45. ¥745.5 million ($7.1 million) / 553,066 - Finding Dory (2016)
46. ¥715.0 million ($6.1 million) / 540,000 - Princess Mononoke (1997)
47. ¥703.8 million ($6.7 million) / 670,285 - Pokemon D&P: Giratina and the Sky Warrior (2008)
48. ¥696.0 million ($6.2 million) / 586,000 - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (2019)
49. ¥691.8 million ($6.1 million) / 592,036 - Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic (2017)
50. ¥683.9 million ($7.3 million) / 561,098 - Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods (2013)
51. ¥679.9 million ($6.2 million) / 459,000 - Belle (2021)
52. ¥672.6 million ($7.1 million) / 641,700 - Pokemon D&P: Arceus and the Jewel of Life (2009)

*3-Day (2023-Present)

I had this one cut off at the Top 50, but I'm going to let it grow from here on out.

I haven't had much time to dedicate to getting the full top 10 actuals (plus all the other data) posted this week, but I'll at least get the 2023 charts updated tomorrow so we don't fall behind.

And no worries as expected about How Do You Live? possibly losing many seats to Mission: Impossible opening, because it didn't. It only saw a 10% or so drop in seating and even has slightly more seats than M:I.

M:I will take Friday (openers advantage), but HDYL will likely take Sat and Sun and win its second weekend at #1. From there, assuming it happens, I don't think anything will dethrone it throughout the rest of summer unless legs would happen to be bad (still too early to say) or something breaks out. But with typically good legs this time of year, it's going to be hard for anything to beat it for many weeks.

Thanks so much Corpse.

M:I did around ¥300 million on its OD, assuming premium showings were strong. HDYL did around ¥190 million or so.

Solid start for M:I, it has become a super consistent franchise in Japan, although it's probably going to open at #2 behind HDYL's second weekend. The Friday gives it a nice lead to start the weekend, of course, but I'm assuming HDYL will have the usual ~15/20% Sat/Sun drop last week that most animated films of this level enjoy in their second weekends to hold onto the top spot... although it'll be close.

Going to predict ~¥1.1 billion for HDYL and ~¥1 billion for M:I.

2023 Charts will be updated later this afternoon too.

Corpse, what is the potential for Barbie in Japan?

I said this last month:



So... it's got the big US/Intl box office and reviews to back it up now and help generate interest and marketing in Japan now. These are positives it didn't have which it now does.

Only question that remains now, IMO, is the status of the Barbie brand in Japan. And I don't know. I have never heard of Barbie being a known (or popular) brand, it feels much more of a Western brand to me, but I could be wrong.

The biggest negatives remain that it has no big names in the movie + Western comedies rarely find huge success due to how different the cultures are.

And did someone say the film is a musical and/or has musical elements? If so, and it's not just Western songs from the soundtrack playing during the film and is instead traditional musical numbers, that could play a positive role too.