Thursday was bigger across the board than what I was expecting. But remember, these are estimates, and a bit rougher than normal since United Cinemas has been acting up all week.

Super Mario is going to hit ¥5 billion on Saturday, its 9th day in release, tying it for third fastest film to ever reach the blockbuster milestone. It IS the fastest Hollywood film to ever reach the mark though (even if it's a co-Japanese production). And the 5 fastest films on this chart have all been released since 2020. It took 16 years for a film to finally beat Howl's Moving Castle's record to the mark, but now 5 films have done it.

This should lock up Detective Conan hitting ¥10 billion on Saturday, its 23rd day in release, to become the third fastest film to ever achieve uber-blockbuster status.

Yes, why?

Corpse, is Children day usually lower on atp. Mario has a bunch of extra seats tomorrow and I feel like it could see a bit of an increase again.

Yes. In general, holiday periods have lower avg. ticket prices (I've reduced them by a couple percent in the estimates already) since more families/children come out, but Children's Day will have lower still.

Nah, you wrote Thu as Toho Cinema Day.. so got confused.

Thank you! So maybe flatish in gross if it does indeed increase a bit in admits. We'll see what happens.

Oops. Fixed and reposted on the new page!

Golden Week 2023 - Daily Estimates

05/01: Discount Day; Aeon Cinema Day
¥339.6 million ($2.5 million), 0, ¥2.18 billion ($16.0 million) - The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Day 4)
¥244.8 million ($1.8 million), +54%, ¥7.97 billion ($59.5 million) - Detective Conan: The Black Iron Submarine (Day 18)
¥189.9 million ($1.4 million), 0, ¥982 million ($7.2 million) - Tokyo MER: Mobile Emergency Room (Day 4)
¥73 million ($0.54 million), +17%, ¥1.25 billion ($9.3 million) - Tokyo Revengers 2 (Day 11)
¥56.2 million ($0.41 million), +146%, ¥13.59 billion ($102.2 million) - The First Slam Dunk (Day 150)

05/02:
¥326 million ($2.4 million), 0, ¥2.51 billion ($18.4 million) - The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Day 5)
¥214 million ($1.6 million), +46%, ¥8.18 billion ($61.1 million) - Detective Conan: The Black Iron Submarine (Day 19)
¥158 million ($1.2 million), 0, ¥1.14 billion ($8.4 million) - Tokyo MER: Mobile Emergency Room (Day 5)
¥57 million ($0.42 million), -01%, ¥1.31 billion ($9.7 million) - Tokyo Revengers 2 (Day 12)
¥55 million ($0.40 million), +252%, ¥13.65 billion ($102.6 million) - The First Slam Dunk (Day 151)

05/03: Constitution Day (National Holiday); Toho Cinema Day
¥820 million ($6.0 million), 0, ¥3.33 billion ($24.4 million) - The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Day 6)
¥546 million ($4.0 million), +128%, ¥8.73 billion ($65.1 million) - Detective Conan: The Black Iron Submarine (Day 20)
¥303 million ($2.2 million), 0, ¥1.44 billion ($10.6 million) - Tokyo MER: Mobile Emergency Room (Day 6)
¥230 million ($1.7 million), 0, ¥230 million ($1.7 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (NEW)
¥161 million ($1.2 million), +47%, ¥1.47 billion ($10.9 million) - Tokyo Revengers 2 (Day 13)
¥70 million ($0.51 million), +112%, ¥13.72 billion ($103.1 million) - The First Slam Dunk (Day 152)

05/04: Greenery Day (National Holiday)
¥780 million ($5.7 million), 0, ¥4.11 billion ($30.1 million) - The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Day 7)
¥476 million ($3.5 million), +238%, ¥9.21 billion ($68.6 million) - Detective Conan: The Black Iron Submarine (Day 21)
¥239 million ($1.7 million), 0, ¥1.68 billion ($12.3 million) - Tokyo MER: Mobile Emergency Room (Day 7)
¥140 million ($1.0 million), 0, ¥370 million ($2.7 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Day 2)
¥112 million ($0.82 million), +145%, ¥1.58 billion ($11.7 million) - Tokyo Revengers 2 (Day 14)
¥54 million ($0.39 million), +262%, ¥13.77 billion ($103.5 million) - The First Slam Dunk (Day 153)

Upcoming:
05/05: Children's Day (National Holiday)

Practically locked to get there on Saturday (day 23) now.

Fastest Films to ¥10 billion (Uber-Blockbuster Milestone):

10 days - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020)
_____
20 days - One Piece Film Red (2022)
_____
23 days - Detective Conan: The Black Iron Submarine (2023) *Projection*
25 days - Spirited Away (2001)
28 days - Your Name. (2016)
28 days - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
30 days - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
_____
31 days - Ponyo (2008)
33 days - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
34 days - Weathering With You (2019)
35 days - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
37 days - Frozen (2014)
37 days - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
40 days - Frozen II (2019)
_____
41 days - Aladdin (2019)
42 days - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (2021)
42 days - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
43 days - Princess Mononoke (1997)
44 days - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
45 days - Suzume (2022)
45 days - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
47 days - Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (1999)
50 days - Avatar (2009)
_____
51 days - The Last Samurai (2003)
52 days - Toy Story 3 (2010)
52 days - Finding Nemo (2003)
53 days - The Wind Rises (2013)
53 days - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
53 days - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
57 days - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
65 days - Top Gun: Maverick (2022)
67 days - The First Slam Dunk (2022)
74 days - Toy Story 4 (2019)
74 days - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
78 days - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
82 days - Titanic (1997)
_____
107 days - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
132 days - Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (2021)

And Super Mario is locked to get there on Saturday (day 9).

Fastest Films to ¥5 billion (Blockbuster Milestone):

4 days - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020)
_____
8 days - One Piece Film Red (2022)
9 days - The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023) *Projection*
9 days - Detective Conan: The Black Iron Submarine (2023)
9 days - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (2021)
10 days - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
_____
11 days - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
12 days - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
13 days - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
13 days - Spirited Away (2001)
14 days - Suzume (2022)
14 days - Weathering With You (2019)
14 days - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
14 days - Your Name. (2016)
14 days - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
14 days - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
14 days - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
15 days - Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (2021)
15 days - Jurassic World (2015)
15 days - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
15 days - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
15 days - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
_____
16 days - Frozen II (2019)
16 days - Toy Story 4 (2019)
16 days - Aladdin (2019)
16 days - Ponyo (2008)
16 days - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
16 days - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
16 days - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
16 days - Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (1999)
17 days - Detective Conan: The Bride of Halloween (2022)
17 days - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019)
17 days - Code Blue (2018)
17 days - Frozen (2014)
17 days - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
17 days - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
17 days - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005)
18 days - Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet (2021)
18 days - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
18 days - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
18 days - Rookies (2009)
18 days - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
18 days - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
19 days - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
20 days - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
_____
21 days - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
21 days - The Wind Rises (2013)
21 days - One Piece Film Z (2012)
21 days - Hero (2007)
22 days - Top Gun: Mavierick (2022)
22 days - Avengers: Endgame (2019)
22 days - Avatar (2009)
22 days - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
22 days - Finding Nemo (2003)
22 days - Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (2003)
22 days - Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones (2002)
23 days - The First Slam Dunk (2022)
23 days - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
23 days - Big Hero 6 (2014)
23 days - Arrietty (2010)
24 days - Toy Story 3 (2010)
24 days - The Last Samurai (2003)

Also, quick mention for Tokyo MER. It's playing a distant third, but it's doing very well still. Looks like it'll gross over ¥3 billion based on its first week numbers so far. And if it holds up well post-Golden Week, maybe it can make a run at even ¥4 billion (too early to predict this yet).

That's not especially exceptional (would likely miss the Top 10 of 2023 for example), but this would be strong for a local live-action film these days, or even just live-action films in general, which have struggled in recent years.

I thought Thursday would have been flat or had a small increase for Mario given the higher ATP compared to Wednesday.

Nah. Wednesday is already the biggest weekday under normal circumstances, so being the biggest of a holiday period when a national holidays falls on it is normal. If anything, I'm surprised by its (and everything else, minus Guardians perhaps) hold on Thursday. But also note, Thursday might be even closer to Wednesday than estimate too. We've been missing United Cinemas (at least partially) which makes it more difficult to make estimates.

Also, while we're discussing days, remember that Saturday and Sunday will not see big gains over Wed., Thur., and Fri. since we're in a major holiday period. They'll either be about the same as Thursday/Friday, or a bit lower.

Looking at the size of Mario's daily grosses, this weekend could increase over OW or at least stay flat?

Everything will be way up this weekend vs last weekend since Friday is a holiday. I haven't seen you post in a little while, so if you didn't know, Japan moved to 3-day weekends (Fri.-Sun.) at the beginning of the year. Sat/Sun itself will probably be about flat for most films, and Mario might go up since it's gaining more seating.

Note: Because of Japan being 3-day weekends now, Super Mario and Detective Conan are likely going to achieve the second biggest 2nd weekend ever (Mario) and second biggest 4th weekend ever (Conan) with Friday being a holiday, behind Demon Slayer's weekends, of course.

Thanks for the explanation, Corpse! I was indeed talking about just Saturday + Sunday. That change in reporting does make it a little annoying to compare weekend numbers against older films.

This is probably the most exciting Golden Week I've seen since following this site though. I wonder if Mario can outgross Conan by the end of its run. If it does, I guess it's a favorite to win the year. Or I guess that title could go to Miyazaki's How Do You Live?

Yeah, this is a huge Golden Week. Mario and Conan are putting up some crazy numbers and could be the two films fighting for #1 of 2023.

But we also have to remember Slam Dunk (I know, Dec. release, so not in the calendar year, but it's still counted as a 2023 release). The numbers it's still doing, even taking into account giveaways, after 5 months is super impressive, and it's going to get close to ¥15 billion it appears, which is probably too much for Conan to reach (assuming it slows down post-GW) and too early to say with Mario.

And, as you mentioned, there's the return of Miyazaki after 10 years with How Do You Live? It has to be at least a ¥10 billion candidate, but can it get up closer to ¥15 billion that may be required to take #1? His last film (The Wind Rises) didn't, but we just don't really know what will happen this time.

And finally, these last few years have shown that a major breakout (sometimes multiple) can happen unexpectedly. There's been at least one film every year since Demon Slayer in 2020 that has grossed FAR more than even the highest expectations. There could be something unexpected happen this year too, besides Slam Dunk, Detective Conan, and now Super Mario which all look to fall into this category too.

I think one thing going for Miyazaki is that anime films seem to be hitting a new wave of popularity ever since Demon Slayer. When Miyazaki "retired" after The Wind Rises, I believe no other non-Ghibli anime film had even passed ¥10 billion. Now, we are seeing more and more anime films from various animation studios/franchises pass this mark and by a decent margin too. Especially impressive how longstanding franchises like One Piece and Conan have exploded in growth to hit heights unseen before.

Another massive day. What I did for Friday's estimates was just compare the admissions change vs Thursday, and then knocked off 5% in revenue since it was Children's Day which should have brought out more families and kids to lower the avg. ticket prices. This wouldn't apply to every film, like Tokyo MER, but I just used it universally to make it a little easier to do.

And remember, these are rougher estimates than usual and could come in either higher/lower than above, though I feel they should be reasonably close either way.

Per Disney

$1.75M
$0.75M // $2.5M through out THU

Pretty yikes Thursday there if their number is right. It seems way too low though. Admissions were down less than half, and since the avg. ticket price would have been higher, I have hard time seeing Thursday decline the 57% there. The ~40% I estimated is pretty bad too, but 57% would be pretty devastating.

It dropped on Friday, and will likely drop again on Saturday and maybe Sunday as well, so if their numbers are right, I don't think it'd finish above ¥1 billion ($7.5 million). Ant-Man 3 stopped being tracked before it got to ¥1 billion, and may have missed that mark too.

The only Disney film this calendar year to gross over ¥1 billion has been the 25th Anniversary re-release of Titanic at ¥1.09 billion ($8.1 million)...

is 10B likely for Mario at this point.

I'd say ¥10 billion is locked based on Mario's total so far. Looking at its dailies, it's clear there is a lot of built-up demand still. I know it's a major holiday period, but averaging ¥800 million for the past 3 days (and maybe similar over the next two days) is incredible. That suggests to me it won't just collapse after the holidays are over even though weekdays will become much weaker. But I don't think we've ever had such a huge opener right before Golden Week, so I'm not sure what kind of mulitplier to expect.

Yeah, it'll clear ¥10 billion with no effort. We need to see what the post-Golden Week numbers look like to maybe get an idea of where it could be aiming for above that, but I'd say ¥12/13 billion is probably super likely right now too, with potential for more.

It's taking months in release these days before we get a clearer picture of where the uber-blockbusters may finish (they're all having very long runs stretching up to 6 months or more), so we may have to wait a long time before knowing with Super Mario too.

Is Mario likely to be in theaters that long? I noticed Universal already has the digital release date set for next week.