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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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Weak numbers in general for this Saturday. Both the openers had weak increases even when you consider this however. Normally the openers get a large increase on their first Saturday due to reviews from people who saw it opening day.
The Grudge meanwhile had a great increase all things considered. That's despite the 81% drop from last week. That's the result of the huge number of reviews it got last Saturday (4641).
Saturday 10/30
Beginning of Day End of Day Daily Total
1 ) Saw 863 1760 897
2 ) The Grudge 12886 13758 872
3 ) Ray 797 1654 857
4 ) Shark Tale 12260 12500 240
5 ) Team America: World Police 9366 9586 220
6 ) Friday Night Lights 7341 7491 150
7 ) Ladder 49 8510 8648 138
8 ) Shall We Dance? 3732 3862 130
9 ) Taxi 5075 5192 117
10 ) Birth 83 189 106
11 ) Surviving Christmas 1901 2000 99
12 ) The Forgotten 8543 8639 96
13 ) I Heart Huckabees 1021 1093 72
14 ) Raise Your Voice 6629 6700 71
Previous Day Daily Increase/Decrease
Saw 863 3.94%
The Grudge 801 8.86%
Ray 797 7.53%
Shark Tale 202 18.81%
Team America: World Police 218 0.92%
Friday Night Lights 153 -1.96%
Ladder 49 134 2.99%
Shall We Dance? 148 -12.16%
Taxi 117 0.00%
Birth 83 27.71%
Surviving Christmas 118 -16.10%
The Forgotten 103 -6.80%
I Heart Huckabees 74 -2.70%
Raise Your Voice 58 22.41%
7 days eariler Weekly Increase/Decrease
I Heart Huckabees 106 -32.08%
Ladder 49 229 -39.74%
Shall We Dance? 230 -43.48%
Taxi 256 -54.30%
Friday Night Lights 330 -54.55%
The Forgotten 234 -58.97%
Shark Tale 623 -61.48%
Team America: World Police 703 -68.71%
Raise Your Voice 279 -74.55%
The Grudge 4641 -81.21%
Surviving Christmas 773 -87.19%
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Sun Oct 31, 2004 3:21 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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DP07 wrote: The much weaker then expected increases into the night for Ray make me think that it will get a ratio of 95-125. Since Saw did relatively better, I would lower my projection to 140-170 as xiayun originally predicted. To adjust for the fake reviews, I'm going to subtract 45 reviews from Saw and 35 from Ray.
Projections: Ray - 6.3m-8.2m Saw - 5m-6.1m
Birth lost some reviews due to there not being any for early in the day. This is a rough estimate, but it would likely be about 105. With the poor grade and very low theater count I could see it having a ratio of 300 (or higher) even with an older audience. With a 200-300 ratio:
Birth - .35m-.53m
Good job again!  Pretty much dead on three weeks in a row now. Sorry I wasn't able to be around on Friday.
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Sun Oct 31, 2004 4:22 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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Sunday 10/31
Beginning of Day End of Day Daily Total
1 ) Saw 1760 2570 810
2 ) The Grudge 13758 14531 773
3 ) Ray 1654 2333 679
4 ) Team America: World Police 9586 9824 238
5 ) Shark Tale 12500 12660 160
6 ) Friday Night Lights 7491 7637 146
7 ) Ladder 49 8648 8762 114
8 ) Birth 189 300 111
9 ) Surviving Christmas 2000 2107 107
10 ) Shall We Dance? 3862 3957 95
11 ) The Forgotten 8639 8732 93
12 ) Taxi 5192 5273 81
13 ) I Heart Huckabees 1093 1157 64
14 ) Raise Your Voice 6700 6749 49
Previous Day Daily Increase/Decrease
Saw 897 -9.70%
The Grudge 872 -11.35%
Ray 857 -20.77%
Team America: World Police 220 8.18%
Shark Tale 240 -33.33%
Friday Night Lights 150 -2.67%
Ladder 49 138 -17.39%
Birth 106 4.72%
Surviving Christmas 99 8.08%
Shall We Dance? 130 -26.92%
The Forgotten 96 -3.13%
Taxi 117 -30.77%
I Heart Huckabees 72 -11.11%
Raise Your Voice 71 -30.99%
7 days eariler Weekly Increase/Decrease
Friday Night Lights 238 -38.66%
Ladder 49 209 -45.45%
The Forgotten 176 -47.16%
Shark Tale 320 -50.00%
Team America: World Police 494 -51.82%
Shall We Dance? 200 -52.50%
I Heart Huckabees 137 -53.28%
Taxi 191 -57.59%
Surviving Christmas 272 -60.66%
The Grudge 2225 -65.26%
Raise Your Voice 173 -71.68%
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Mon Nov 01, 2004 4:41 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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Ratios With Estimates
# of reviews Box Office (In Millions) Ratio
Saw 893 $6.800000 131.32
Ray 818 $6.550000 124.89
4 Hour Ratios
Saw 229 $6.800000 33.68
Ray 166 $6.550000 25.34
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Mon Nov 01, 2004 4:47 am |
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JURiNG
ef star star kay
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 7:45 pm Posts: 3016 Location: Cairo, Egypt
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I can't wait to see incredible numbers this friday..
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Mon Nov 01, 2004 10:38 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Ratios With Actuals
# of reviews Box Office (In Millions) Ratio
Saw 893 $6,658,304 134.12
Ray 818 $6,649,890 123.01
Birth 87 $565,000 153.98
4 Hour Ratios
Saw 229 $6,658,304 34.39
Ray 166 $6,649,890 24.96
Birth 20 $565,000 35.40
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Mon Nov 01, 2004 9:28 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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Very strong numbers all around for a Monday. I guess people had extra time at work to grade movies today.
Monday 11/1
Beginning of Day End of Day Daily Total
1 ) Saw 2570 3505 935
2 ) The Grudge 14531 15442 911
3 ) Ray 2333 3162 829
4 ) Team America: World Police 9824 10074 250
5 ) Shark Tale 12660 12868 208
6 ) Friday Night Lights 7637 7798 161
7 ) Ladder 49 8762 8917 155
8 ) Shall We Dance? 3957 4098 141
9 ) Surviving Christmas 2107 2212 105
10 ) Taxi 5273 5378 105
11 ) Birth 300 401 101
12 ) The Forgotten 8732 8809 77
13 ) I Heart Huckabees 1157 1226 69
14 ) Raise Your Voice 6749 6789 40
Previous Day Daily Increase/Decrease
Saw 810 15.43%
The Grudge 773 17.85%
Ray 679 22.09%
Team America: World Police 238 5.04%
Shark Tale 160 30.00%
Friday Night Lights 146 10.27%
Ladder 49 114 35.96%
Shall We Dance? 95 48.42%
Surviving Christmas 107 -1.87%
Taxi 81 29.63%
Birth 111 -9.01%
The Forgotten 93 -17.20%
I Heart Huckabees 64 7.81%
Raise Your Voice 49 -18.37%
7 days eariler Weekly Increase/Decrease
Shark Tale 184 13.04%
Ladder 49 140 10.71%
Taxi 108 -2.78%
Shall We Dance? 150 -6.00%
Friday Night Lights 179 -10.06%
Team America: World Police 340 -26.47%
The Grudge 1294 -29.60%
The Forgotten 115 -33.04%
Surviving Christmas 165 -36.36%
I Heart Huckabees 109 -36.70%
Raise Your Voice 68 -41.18%
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Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:39 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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All Saints Day. That explains the high Monday numbers here and at the BO. Shark Tale had weekly increases at both.
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Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:36 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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After 4 days at #1 on yahoo reviews, Saw fell behind The Grudge for today. We will have to see if the same might happen at the BO for Tuesday. Meanwhile, I'm suprised to see that Shark Tale was still up weekly for the second day in a row.
Tuesday 11/2
Beginning of Day End of Day Daily Total
1 ) The Grudge 15442 16022 580
2 ) Saw 3505 3929 424
3 ) Ray 3162 3509 347
4 ) Shark Tale 12868 13025 157
5 ) Team America: World Police 10074 10220 146
6 ) Friday Night Lights 7798 7912 114
7 ) Ladder 49 8917 9008 91
8 ) Taxi 5378 5468 90
9 ) Shall We Dance? 4098 4182 84
10 ) Surviving Christmas 2212 2292 80
11 ) The Forgotten 8809 8871 62
12 ) Birth 401 448 47
13 ) I Heart Huckabees 1226 1264 38
14 ) Raise Your Voice 6789 6823 34
Previous Day Daily Increase/Decrease
The Grudge 911 -36.33%
Saw 935 -54.65%
Ray 829 -58.14%
Shark Tale 208 -24.52%
Team America: World Police 250 -41.60%
Friday Night Lights 161 -29.19%
Ladder 49 155 -41.29%
Taxi 105 -14.29%
Shall We Dance? 141 -40.43%
Surviving Christmas 105 -23.81%
The Forgotten 77 -19.48%
Birth 101 -53.47%
I Heart Huckabees 69 -44.93%
Raise Your Voice 40 -15.00%
7 days eariler Weekly Increase/Decrease
Shark Tale 138 13.77%
Ladder 49 92 -1.09%
Surviving Christmas 84 -4.76%
Taxi 106 -15.09%
Friday Night Lights 138 -17.39%
Shall We Dance? 104 -19.23%
The Forgotten 83 -25.30%
The Grudge 804 -27.86%
Team America: World Police 229 -36.24%
I Heart Huckabees 63 -39.68%
Raise Your Voice 73 -53.42%
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Wed Nov 03, 2004 4:22 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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Generally large decreases after election day.
Wednesday 11/3
Beginning of Day End of Day Daily Total
1 ) The Grudge 16022 16291 269
2 ) Saw 3929 4150 221
3 ) Ray 3509 3664 155
4 ) Team America: World Police 10220 10301 81
5 ) Shark Tale 13025 13084 59
6 ) Ladder 49 9008 9064 56
7 ) Friday Night Lights 7912 7963 51
8 ) Shall We Dance? 4182 4224 42
9 ) Taxi 5468 5507 39
10 ) Surviving Christmas 2292 2328 36
11 ) The Forgotten 8871 8900 29
12 ) Birth 448 470 22
13 ) Raise Your Voice 6823 6835 12
14 ) I Heart Huckabees 1264 1275 11
Previous Day Daily Increase/Decrease
The Grudge 580 -53.62%
Saw 424 -47.88%
Ray 347 -55.33%
Team America: World Police 146 -44.52%
Shark Tale 157 -62.42%
Ladder 49 91 -38.46%
Friday Night Lights 114 -55.26%
Shall We Dance? 84 -50.00%
Taxi 90 -56.67%
Surviving Christmas 80 -55.00%
The Forgotten 62 -53.23%
Birth 47 -53.19%
Raise Your Voice 34 -64.71%
I Heart Huckabees 38 -71.05%
7 days eariler Weekly Increase/Decrease
Ladder 49 76 -26.32%
Surviving Christmas 66 -45.45%
Friday Night Lights 103 -50.49%
Shall We Dance? 86 -51.16%
Taxi 81 -51.85%
Team America: World Police 170 -52.35%
Shark Tale 141 -58.16%
The Grudge 672 -59.97%
The Forgotten 85 -65.88%
I Heart Huckabees 37 -70.27%
Raise Your Voice 57 -78.95%
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Thu Nov 04, 2004 7:58 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Ratio predictions:
The Incredibles - Two obvious comparisons are Shark Tale and Shrek 2. The former has less hype(smaller ratio), while the latter is during the summer(bigger ratio), so I expect the ratio for The Incredibles to fall right in between the two. 70-90. PG-13 rating could push it to the higher end.
Alfie - I'm interested to see what DP thinks about this because I'm not so sure. It's R-rated, but its audience should be more toward older women like Stepford Wives and Shall We Dance. I expect the grade to be in the B-/C+ range. Overall a ratio of 150-200?
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Thu Nov 04, 2004 11:12 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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xiayun wrote: Ratio predictions:
The Incredibles - Two obvious comparisons are Shark Tale and Shrek 2. The former has less hype(smaller ratio), while the latter is during the summer(bigger ratio), so I expect the ratio for The Incredibles to fall right in between the two. 70-90. PG-13 rating could push it to the higher end.
Alfie - I'm interested to see what DP thinks about this because I'm not so sure. It's R-rated, but its audience should be more toward older women like Stepford Wives and Shall We Dance. I expect the grade to be in the B-/C+ range. Overall a ratio of 150-200?
The Incredibles is PG, not PG-13. If I'm not mistaken.
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Thu Nov 04, 2004 11:22 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Zingaling wrote: xiayun wrote: Ratio predictions:
The Incredibles - Two obvious comparisons are Shark Tale and Shrek 2. The former has less hype(smaller ratio), while the latter is during the summer(bigger ratio), so I expect the ratio for The Incredibles to fall right in between the two. 70-90. PG-13 rating could push it to the higher end.
Alfie - I'm interested to see what DP thinks about this because I'm not so sure. It's R-rated, but its audience should be more toward older women like Stepford Wives and Shall We Dance. I expect the grade to be in the B-/C+ range. Overall a ratio of 150-200? The Incredibles is PG, not PG-13. If I'm not mistaken.
Sorry, yeah, it's PG. Still, it will attract more older kids and thus have a little higher ratio than G.
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Thu Nov 04, 2004 11:42 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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xiayun wrote: Ratio predictions:
The Incredibles - Two obvious comparisons are Shark Tale and Shrek 2. The former has less hype(smaller ratio), while the latter is during the summer(bigger ratio), so I expect the ratio for The Incredibles to fall right in between the two. 70-90. PG-13 rating could push it to the higher end.
Alfie - I'm interested to see what DP thinks about this because I'm not so sure. It's R-rated, but its audience should be more toward older women like Stepford Wives and Shall We Dance. I expect the grade to be in the B-/C+ range. Overall a ratio of 150-200?
I'm not sure hype will cause a higher ratio. After all, blockbusters often have the lower ratios, while films with very little hype, like First Daughter, often have the high ones.
I believe just about the entire difference between the opening day ratios of Shrek 2 and Shark Tale can be explained by the fact that Shrek 2 opened on a Wednesday. ST's current total ratio is about 87.9, and at this point in its run Shrek 2's ratio was actually slightly lower at about 86.5. In the long run there hasn't really been any difference, and had it opened on a Friday I believe Shrek 2 would have had a ratio of 80 at the very most, and likely under 70.
I expect something very similar to ST for the Incredibles. 60-70, although this is always the chance it might be higher or lower. While it might seem to have more appeal to older kids, I would have thought the same about Shrek 2, but the ratio pattern over the course of its run has been remarkably similar to Shark Tale's.
For Alfie, I have to say that I am not entirely sure what to make of it either. I'll guess somewhere in 130-200 is probable. Shall We Dance did have a 122 ratio even with its theater count, so it may be on the low side.
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Fri Nov 05, 2004 3:41 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Fri Nov 05, 2004 4:40 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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Still no reviews. The Grudge has 12 in the last 2 hours, so, it isn't that yahoo isn't adding any reviews. Maybe it's just the openers for some reason. I would have a hard time believing that neither films has yet recieved a single review.
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Fri Nov 05, 2004 5:44 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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The wild fluctuations in the numbers continue as most films have large increases for reasons I don't know.
Thursday 11/4
Beginning of Day End of Day Daily Total
1 ) The Grudge 16291 16646 355
2 ) Saw 4150 4441 291
3 ) Ray 3664 3883 219
4 ) Team America: World Police 10301 10425 124
5 ) Friday Night Lights 7963 8055 92
6 ) Shark Tale 13084 13169 85
7 ) Ladder 49 9064 9122 58
8 ) Shall We Dance? 4224 4280 56
9 ) Taxi 5507 5561 54
10 ) Surviving Christmas 2328 2380 52
11 ) The Forgotten 8900 8939 39
12 ) I Heart Huckabees 1275 1310 35
13 ) Birth 470 503 33
14 ) Raise Your Voice 6835 6861 26
Previous Day Daily Increase/Decrease
The Grudge 269 31.97%
Saw 221 31.67%
Ray 155 41.29%
Team America: World Police 81 53.09%
Friday Night Lights 51 80.39%
Shark Tale 59 44.07%
Ladder 49 56 3.57%
Shall We Dance? 42 33.33%
Taxi 39 38.46%
Surviving Christmas 36 44.44%
The Forgotten 29 34.48%
I Heart Huckabees 11 218.18%
Birth 22 50.00%
Raise Your Voice 12 116.67%
7 days eariler Weekly Increase/Decrease
Shall We Dance? 74 -24.32%
Friday Night Lights 130 -29.23%
I Heart Huckabees 50 -30.00%
Ladder 49 86 -32.56%
Team America: World Police 191 -35.08%
Taxi 85 -36.47%
Surviving Christmas 86 -39.53%
The Grudge 624 -43.11%
The Forgotten 73 -46.58%
Raise Your Voice 50 -48.00%
Shark Tale 165 -48.48%
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Fri Nov 05, 2004 5:58 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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Still nothing.
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Fri Nov 05, 2004 6:57 am |
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JURiNG
ef star star kay
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 7:45 pm Posts: 3016 Location: Cairo, Egypt
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still waiting 
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Fri Nov 05, 2004 7:35 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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There has to be a problem. It's impossible for neither of them to have nothing have 3 whole hours. Especially The Incredibles, considering it did have midnight shows.
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Fri Nov 05, 2004 7:38 am |
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Samweis Gamdschie
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:35 pm Posts: 2077 Location: At the edge of reality
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The Incredibles 7, +7, B+
Alfie 7, +7, B
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Fri Nov 05, 2004 7:45 am |
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Horlicks
Angels & Demons
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 8:37 am Posts: 240 Location: Toronto
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Hmm...still at 7's. Something is definitely up at Yahoo. Wonder if they have finally become tired of all the bogus hits we generate 
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Fri Nov 05, 2004 8:45 am |
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JURiNG
ef star star kay
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 7:45 pm Posts: 3016 Location: Cairo, Egypt
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We're looking for USER's review, aren't we??
still nothing..
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Fri Nov 05, 2004 9:11 am |
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Passionate Thug
Top Poster
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:01 am Posts: 5264 Location: Wakanda
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Incredibles- 52 A-
Alfie- 6 C
Problem seems to be with the movies front page, if you click on the left column on users reviews the total comes up.
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Fri Nov 05, 2004 12:26 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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BOYFRESH wrote: Incredibles- 52 A- Alfie- 6 C Problem seems to be with the movies front page, if you click on the left column on users reviews the total comes up.
52 isn't the total number of reviews. It's only the number of users who wrote something besides just grading it, so the total number so far should be higher.
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Fri Nov 05, 2004 12:30 pm |
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