June 23 Predictions

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		June 23
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Green Lantern 3D	6376	5153	-19.2%
2	Beginning Of The Great Revival	--	2545	--
3	X-Men: First Class	1658	1103	-33.5%
4	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	--	682	--
5	Treasure Inn	--	657	--

That number for Green Lantern looks way off. Maybe they mixed it up with Beginning Of The Great Revival. Oh well, it'll fix itself out by the end of the day anyways.

Thursday's numbers so far are significantly down from last week. It looks like people prefer to stay home as a tropical storm's gaining strength in the area.

The slate of new releases being uninteresting also helps bring down the number.

State-financed Beginning Of The Great Revival (known as The Founding of a Party in Hong Kong) should have some upfront demand as pro-Beijing interest groups can't wait to kiss granddad some ass by group-booking theaters showing the film. Also, Hong Kong Democrats, educators and news commentators alike are interested in how the film portrays modern Chinese history.

As for other new releases, Treasure Inn, a Chinese-language adventure comedy based on a folktale, is unlikely to get much attention opening opposite The Founding of a Party. Really bad scheduling. British film London Boulevard, Japanese imports Tomorrow's Joe and SP: The Motion Picture 2 are also-runs in this supposedly quiet weekend in the box office.

	Thursday adm.			June 23
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Green Lantern 3D	15032	8721	-42.0%
2	Beginning Of The Great Revival	--	8248	--
3	X-Men: First Class	7484	5065	-32.3%
4	Treasure Inn	--	3512	--
5	Hangover 2	3235	2549	-21.2%

That is more in line with what I was seeing. It still looks a bit suspicious that Green Lantern ended up falling less than 50%. Beginning of the Great Revival did quite poor. Looks like audiences didn't fall for the starpower this time around. Very good drop for X-Men. Treasure Inn didn't do too badly given that it only went semi-wide. Excellent drop for Hangover 2. I thought screen cuts would kill it but good WOM is still fueling it.

	Friday adm.	(so far)			June 24
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Green Lantern 3D	7623	5647	-25.9%	+9.6%
2	Beginning Of The Great Revival	--	3017	--	+18.5%
3	X-Men: First Class	2864	1775	-38.0%	+60.9%
4	Treasure Inn	--	927	--	+41.1%
5	Hangover 2	--	821	--	--

Men's Wimbledon Semi-finals as well as both Men and Women's Finals will be shown in select theaters at $250 a pop in 3D. Each theater has their own set menu that patrons can choose to have throughout the match(es).

		Thursday Actuals				June 23
LW	TW	Title	Last Thur. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Total
1	1	Green Lantern 3D	$137,885	$55,331	-59.9%	$1,040,808
--	2	Beginning Of The Great Revival		$55,129	--	$55,129
2	3	X-Men: First Class	$51,343	$35,682	-30.5%	$3,011,055
--	4	Treasure Inn		$28,216	--	$28,216
5	5	Hangover 2	$22,404	$17,383	-22.4%	$1,433,680
3	6	Super 8	$39,687	$15,034	-62.1%	$1,116,771
4	7	Something Borrowed	$24,262	$14,129	-41.8%	$224,671
8	8	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	$12,630	$9,910	-21.5%	$5,723,047
9	9	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D	$6,803	$5,280	-22.4%	$5,184,128
7	10	Love For Life	$14,911	$5,110	-65.7%	$112,977

I knew there was something funky with those admissions for Green Lantern. What a tight race between it and Great Revival. I put the weekend at 65-35 for Green Lantern. The weekend schedules for Green Lantern are full day while Great Revival's are either full day or half day. Besides that, Green Lantern should perform better on the weekend. Very good drops for X-Men and Hangover 2. Treasure Inn should cross $100,000 for the weekend. Super 8's drop is ugly. Not great for Something Borrowed. Pirates is so close yet so far to 5.8m. Its return to IMAX helped out its gross. Sex will cross 5.2m this weekend. Awful drop for Love For Life.

Release Date	Movie Title
July 7	Bridesmaids Mr Popper's Penguins Beach Spike The Tree Of Life Mysterious Island
July 14	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
July 15	May'n The Movie: Phonic Nation 3D
July 21	Kung Fu Panda 2
July 28	Wu Xia The Beaver Dylan Dog: Dead Of Night Love Is The Only Answer Doraemon: Nobita And The New Steel Troops

July will be bookended by 5 new openers but it's the movies in the middle that will garner the most attention.

I have said my piece about Harry Potter and Kung Fu Panda 2 so let's look at the two other weekends.

July 7 will be the more interesting of the two as the horror movie Mysterious Island finally makes its debut and Bridesmaids should do fairly decent business. Mr Popper's Penguins will do ok as well. #2 will be a dogfight. I can see reasons why both will/won't be #2 but we'll know more once schedules and early pre-sales come out.

July 28 will be fairly light with only Wu Xia expected to seriously contend for #2. I think it's a bit risky putting it so close to Harry Potter/Panda and they should have stuck it with the August 18 release date. This will do some serious damage though...upwards of 1 million possibly.

Rest of the weekend admissions will be posted on Monday.

Last day to get your votes in or change your vote before the poll closes!

	Friday adm.				June 24
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Green Lantern 3D	16560	9976	-39.8%	+14.4%
2	Beginning Of The Great Revival	--	7945	--	-3.7%
3	X-Men: First Class	10872	6763	-37.8%	+33.5%
4	Hangover 2	4669	3326	-28.8%	+30.5%
5	Treasure Inn	--	3271	--	-6.9%

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			June 25
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Green Lantern 3D	10931	7186	-34.3%	+27.3%
2	Beginning Of The Great Revival	--	5555	--	+84.1%
3	X-Men: First Class	3620	2425	-33.0%	+36.6%
4	Treasure Inn	--	1363	--	+47.0%
5	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	--	1233	--	--

	Saturday adm.				June 25
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Beginning Of The Great Revival	--	15959	--	+100.9%
2	Green Lantern 3D	27952	15142	-45.8%	+51.8%
3	X-Men: First Class	17788	12089	-32.0%	+78.8%
4	Treasure Inn	--	6116	--	+87.0%
5	Super 8	12562	5231	-58.4%	--

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			June 26
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Green Lantern 3D	12677	7619	-39.9%	+6.0%
2	Beginning Of The Great Revival	--	7389	--	+33.0%
3	X-Men: First Class	5267	2965	-43.7%	+22.3%
4	Treasure Inn	--	1625	--	+19.2%
5	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	1915	1624	-15.2%	+31.7%

	Sunday adm.				June 26
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Beginning Of The Great Revival	--	17510	--	+9.7%
2	Green Lantern 3D	25488	14245	-44.1%	-5.9%
3	X-Men: First Class	16223	10721	-33.9%	-11.3%
4	Treasure Inn	--	5747	--	-6.0%
5	Super 8	9934	4687	-52.8%	-10.4%

	Weekend adm.			June 23-26
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Beginning Of The Great Revival	--	49662	--
2	Green Lantern 3D	85032	48084	-43.5%
3	X-Men: First Class	52367	34638	-33.9%
4	Treasure Inn	--	18646	--

June 23 Weekend Recap

A quick change for Transformers: Dark Of The Moon as it will open here June 28 with 11:15 PM showtimes. First time this has ever happened here.

I will talk more about this and others when I post the schedules tomorrow.

Weekend Actuals:

2. Beginning Of The Great Revival - $287,513
Treasure Inn - $143,756

Others (total):

1. Green Lantern - $1,325,900
X-Men: First Class - $3,188,322
Super 8 - $1,197,546

Wednesday schedules

Note: The number of showtimes in parentheses for holdovers is from Tuesday.

Palace IFC
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D - 16 showings	Beginning of the Great Revival - 4 showings (▼ 5)	X-Men: First Class
	Green Lantern 3D - 1 showing (▼ 5)	Submarine
	Love For Life - 1 showing (▼ 4)	Super 8
	Something Borrowed - 1 showing (▼ 3)
	Hangover 2 - 1 showing (▼ 4)

Pacific Place
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D - 19 showings	Beginning of the Great Revival - 3 showings (▼ 5)	X-Men: First Class
	London Boulevard - 3 showings (▼ 5)	Green Lantern 3D
	Hangover 2 - 1 showing (▼ 2)	Something Borrowed
	The Conspirator - 2 showings (▼ 5)	Super 8
		Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D

Olympian City
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D - 22 showings	Beginning of the Great Revival - 4 showings (▼ 5)	London Boulevard
Transformers: Dark of the Moon - 4 showings	A Beautiful Life - 1 showing (-)	Green Lantern 3D
	Treasure Inn - 1 showing (▼ 4)	Something Borrowed
	X-Men: First Class - 1 showing (▼ 5)	The Conspirator
		Super 8
		Hangover 2
		Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D

Palace APM
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D - 23 showings	Beginning of the Great Revival - 4 showings (-)	London Boulevard
Transformers: Dark of the Moon - 4 showings	Treasure Inn - 2 showings (▼ 4)	Love For Life
	X-Men: First Class - 1 showing (▼ 7)	Something Borrowed
	Green Lantern 3D - 1 showing (▼ 5)	Super 8
		Hangover 2
		A Beautiful Life
		Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D

Festival Walk
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D - 22 showings	Beginning of the Great Revival - 5 showings (-)	Love For Life
Transformers: Dark of the Moon - 4 showings	London Boulevard - 4 showings (▼ 6)	Something Borrowed
	Treasure Inn - 2 showings (▼ 3)	The Conspirator
	Green Lantern 3D - 1 showing (▼ 6)	Super 8
	Hangover 2 - 1 showing (▼ 4)	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D
		X-Men: First Class

It's getting more screens than Pirates 4. Not as many as Toy Story 3 in most places, however.



It's somewhat disappointing that it's not getting more than 20 screens in the business sector. Part of it has to do with the long runtime but I don't think it has as much universal appeal as Toy Story 3 does. I don't see it breaking the OW record especially with 6 days to gross instead of the usual 4 although the holiday will keep it quite competitive.

This is the first time that theaters are showing the movie in 2D in more than 10% of the locations. It stands to reason that moviegoers are getting tired of paying premium prices for an inferior 3D product. We will finally be able to get the % share of 2D to 3D this weekend.

As with any big movie, holdovers get their shows cut and sometimes they are cut completely to make room for the big release. Super 8, Pirates 4 look to be the main casualties of this while X-Men, Green Lantern, Hangover 2 get reprieves at different locations. Beginning Of The Great Revival has the most showtimes of any holdover so it will probably fall the weakest unless if it collapses this weekend.

Also, the 11:15 PM showtimes on Tuesday evening are the first of its kind here. We've seen night time previews (Pirates 4, after 7 PM, Ip Man 2 -> 7 PM) but never late night advanced screenings. Usually theaters like to open a movie with a morning show since tickets are discounted 40-45% (30-35% for 3D movies) off the regular price.

I really don't see Tuesday as being a big money maker day as many people do not like to go to midnight movies here so $20,000 is expected while $40,000 is possible. I will post an update with the Tuesday pre-sales later tonight so check back in a few.

	Tuesday adm.	(so far)			June 28
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Green Lantern 3D	--	4318	--	--
2	Beginning Of The Great Revival	--	2734	--	--
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	--	1922	--	--
4	X-Men: First Class	--	1132	--	--
5	Treasure Inn	--	718	--	--

Keep in mind that these Transformers admissions are for shows that begin at or after 11:15 PM.

These are very good numbers for Transformers 3. Looks like it will hit $35,000 upwards of $50,000 if it has a good surge in last minute walk-ins.

	# of Showtimes
	Transformers: DotM 3D	Transformers: DotM 2D	Beginning Of The Great Revival	Green Lantern 3D	Treasure Inn	X-Men: First Class
Olympian City
Wednesday	22	4	4		1	1
Thursday	24	6	2			1
Palace APM
Wednesday	23	4	5	1	2	1
Thursday	27 (3 midnights)	4	1		1	1
Langham Place
Wednesday	20 (3)	3	7	5		2
Thursday	19 (3)	2	6	3	2	2
The One
Wednesday	21	2	3	1	3	1
Thursday	24 (3)	3	2		2	2
Pacific Place
Wednesday	19		3
Thursday	21 (2)		2			1
Palace IFC
Wednesday	16		4	1
Thursday	20 (2)		1
Festival Walk
Wednesday	22	4	5	1	2
Thursday	21	5	3			1
Times Square
Wednesday	13 (2)	2	6	3
Thursday	12 (2)	4	5

I didn't know theaters were contractually obligated to show movies for the full week. Green Lantern's losses are very interesting. Movies getting showtimes on Thursday but not Wednesday isn't just exclusive to X-Men. Pirates 4, Super 8, Hangover 2 are all getting the same treatment at different locations.

June 30 Predictions

	Tuesday adm.				June 28
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Green Lantern 3D	--	7164	--	--
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	--	6838	--	--
3	Beginning Of The Great Revival	--	6534	--	--
4	X-Men: First Class	--	4588	--	--
5	Treasure Inn	--	3433	--	--

Those are magnificent late night admissions for Transformers 3. Wow, it should be around $65,000 for the previews alone.

	Wednesday adm.	(so far)		June 29
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	--	40320	--
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 2D	--	3841	--
3	SP: The Motion Picture II	--	2295	--
4	Fireworks From The Heart	--	1543	--
5	Something Borrowed	--	1487	--

Transformers 3 OD pre-sales: 44,161

Ignore the bottom 3. Those movies are being inflated by group bookings. Wednesday's are when studios/people inflate a struggling movie's gross and buy full houses in certain theaters.

Transformers 3 Comparisions

Harry Potter 7 OD - 47,168
Toy Story 3 OD pre-sales - 32,294 (Cantonese only) -> 71,663 OD (both)
Iron Man 2 OD pre-sales - 31,977 -> 56,582 OD
Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy pre-sales - 22,280 -> 41,967 OD
Ip Man 2 (2nd day) - 47,608

So far it is well ahead of Toy Story 3 in pre-sales and it almost matched Harry Potter 7's OD with pre-sales alone! It also has beaten Sex & Zen and is close to Ip Man 2's 2nd day total.

It will need to do some work if it wants to beat Toy Story 3's OD. Excellent start though!

Transformers 3 3D share - 91.30%
Transformers 3 2D share - 8.70%

Very encouraging sign for 2D. Hopefully, this is the start of something that theaters will want to schedule freely in the future.

Transformers 3 Opening Day Watch -- Palace IFC

10:00 AM - 46/90
10:30 AM - 79/181 (morning shows)
----------------------
11:30 AM - 20/94
12:45 PM - 16/90
1:20 PM - 42/181
2:00 PM - 30/95
3:35 PM - 49/90
4:10 PM - 63/181
4:45 PM - 19/95
5:10 PM - 31/84
6:25 PM - 40/90
7:00 PM - 147/181
7:05 PM - 47/94
7:30 PM - 72/95
9:50 PM - 115/181
9:55 PM - 17/84
10:15 PM - 23/95

Total - 856/2001 = 42.8% full

While Transformers 3 is beating Toy Story 3 pre-sales at Palace IFC, I took TS3's pre-sales 12 hours earlier before its opening than I did with Transformers 3. Looking at these numbers, they are quite solid but Toy Story 3's biggest days were Saturday/Sunday. Transformers 3 will need a very strong performance on the holiday/Saturday/Sunday to even have a sniff at the opening weekend title.

Thanks for the report.

Transformers 3 is the sole wide opener of the holiday weekend (July 1-4) (The other openers are arthouse flicks "Certified Copy" and "Night Market Hero", playing in limited release.). It should easily own the long weekend. Its multiple bookings in most cinemas suggest it has already annihilated pics catering to the same audiences (Green Lantern, First Class, and Hangover II) before it actually makes a killing. People looking for cheap popcorn entertainment will see it during the weekend. Like I said it in previous posts, Pirates 4 had the benefit of an empty May schedule while T3 had the benefit of an extended long weekend all to itself. And I think T3 can still play well against Harry Potter next weekend as both flicks are going after different audiences.

The Founding of a Party has good showings in the financial district of the area. The state-financed history pic offers good counter-programming to summer blockbusters. People may still want to check out the controversial subject matter dealt with in the film, especially during this particular time (Hong Kong's Handover Anniversary).

To Bluebomb: are you going to the protest rally this year?

Harry Potter comes out on July 14th, although I wish it would have been released next weekend to get away from Panda.

And no, I'm not going to the rally.

Thanks.

Then T3 should have a smooth sailing until mid-July. I still have doubt about Panda 2 being a gigantic blockbuster. It's marketed as a kid film. It's not going to have an appeal as wide as Toy Story 3 or Pirates 4.

Do you think the rally will be big this year?

Summer movies, especially sequels, have been holding up well this year. Transformers could hold very well next week, below 55%.

Kung Fu Panda had extremely good WOM here. KFP2 will be a huge hit for several reasons: the first one was BELOVED, the sequel is being heavily promoted (more than Transformers, way more than Harry Potter), and it has performed well in Asia (China in particular). This will do extremely well. Adults love kids films as much as children. Strange but true.

I never pay attention to protests but it probably will. Probably not more than the hostage crisis protest from last year though.

	Wednesday adm.			May 18
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	--	69,581	--
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 2D	--	8,845	--
3	Beginning Of The Great Revival	--	3,724	--
4	Fireworks From The Heart	--	3,492	--
5	SP: The Motion Picture II	--	2,565	--

Transformers 3 total OD admissions - 78,426

3D share - 88.72%
2D share - 11.28%

HOLY FUCK!!!

It beats out Toy Story 3. Actuals will come out tomorrow and confirm it. Now, it won't beat out Toy Story 3's OW since only the 4-day is counted but it could make 3.7m in 5 days. Wow.

We'll get a good sense of where it is headed with tomorrow's admissions...

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		June 30
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	--	42,692	--
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	--	5,215	--
3	Beginning Of The Great Revival	2,545	1,154	-54.7%
4	X-Men: First Class	1,103	369	-66.5%
5	The Way We Were	--	360	--

Day-to-day increases for the 3D version and 2D version of Transformers 3 were 6% and 36% respectively.

Looks frontloaded to me. Maybe it will increase a bit with the night shows being affected by the holiday.

Beginning Of The Great Revival held up quite well. It lost screens at half the places (now on a shared screen) while it is keeping it in the other half. X-Men: First Class did ok considering the screen loss.

Tuesday (Late-night and midnights):

2D - $2,569
3D - $61,284
Total - $63,853

Wednesday (Opening Day):

2D - $75,417
3D - $633,918
Total - $709,335

Total (including midnights): $773,188

It does not beat Toy Story 3's opening day. TS3 (HK 5.92 million = $762,081)

TF2-TF3 Comparison

Transformers 2 (without midnights): $491,612
Transformers 2 (with midnights): $513,548

Midnights: $21,936
TF3 Midnights: $61,284 (+179.4%)

Opening day (no midnights): $491,612
TF3 Opening day (no midnights/late-night): $633,918 (+28.9%)

Opening day (includes midnights): $513,548
TF3 Opening day (includes late-night/midnights): $773,188 (+50.6%)

Notes:

- Bridesmaids has been rescheduled. No new date has been set. It looks like it won't be released here on July 7.

- Pre-selling for Harry Potter 7-2 has just started in both IMAX and regular theaters. In just one day, it is already more than half full at peak showtimes in both IMAX theaters. It comes out July 14.

- Advanced ticketing for Kung Fu Panda 2 is now available. It comes out July 21.

	Thursday adm.			June 30
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	--	72,697	--
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	--	13,030	--
3	Beginning Of The Great Revival	8,248	3,375	-59.1%
4	X-Men: First Class	5,065	1,773	-65.0%
5	Treasure Inn	3,512	682	-80.6%

Day-to-day increases for the 3D version and 2D version of Transformers 3 were 5% and 47% respectively.

My Thursday estimates:

Transformers: Dark Of The Moon 3D - $662,306
Transformers: Dark Of The Moon - $111,100
Total - $773,406

2-day total - $1,546,594

That increase is a very good sign for Transformers. It will come close to or pass 1m for the holiday. These two days have been very fun to watch. The next month will be very interesting.

This opening for Transformers 3 makes me very optimistic for Harry Potter. I feel like its chances of breaking the OW record just went up.

	Friday adm.	(so far)			July 1
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	--	78,185	--	+83.1%
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	--	13,993	--	+168.3%
3	Beginning Of The Great Revival	3,017	2,718	-9.9%	+135.5%
4	X-Men: First Class	1,775	1,026	-42.2%	+178.0%
5	Treasure Inn	927	585	-36.9%	--

OMG. This is just for pre-sales ALONE.

Yeah, this is cracking 1m for today. Spider Man 3's record is gone...



Transformers 3 Saturday showings watch

Pacific Place - 28 showings (4 morning shows) 3D
Palace APM - 32 showings (5 morning shows) 3D; 3 showings 2D; 35 showings combined
Tsuen Wan - 20 showings (3 morning shows) 3D; 2 showings 2D; 22 showings combined
Palace IFC - 24 showings (3 morning shows) 3D
Festival Walk - 26 showings (5 morning shows) 3D; 7 showings (1 morning show) 2D; 33 showings combined

WOW. That is a lot of shows for Transformers...35 showings in one day...are you kidding me?!

Normally, I don't update midday but it's a special day.

4 PM Update:

Transformers 3 3D - 103,754
Transformers 3 - 20,443

Yes, the 3D version has just cracked 100,000 admissions with 8 hours to go. At this rate, the 3D version could see 120,000-125,000 admissions for the day, while 2D should be around 25,000-30,000.

Estimates could reach 1.306-1.394 million for the day which would beat Spider-Man 3's record by at least $360,000. Yeah, the HK market is definitely expanding. At this rate, we could potentially see a $10m grosser every year from now on if the growth continues.

If TF3 makes an estimate in the above range for Friday, 4m 5-day just became a serious possbility.

	Friday adm.				July 1
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	--	131,994	--	+81.6%
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	--	25,382	--	+94.8%
3	Beginning Of The Great Revival	7,945	7,870	-0.9%	+133.2%
4	X-Men: First Class	6,763	3,364	-50.3%	+89.7%
5	Treasure Inn	3,271	1,492	-54.4%	+118.8%

July 1 Total admissions - 157,376

3D share - 83.87%
2D share - 16.13%

WOW. A record breaking day for sure. It beat Toy Story 3's opening Sunday admissions by almost 40,000. While 50,000 people went out to protest, Transformers 3 broke records. It not only broke the single day record held by Spider-Man 3 but is the first film to break 1m in a day. 2D share of Transformers 3 has been growing throughout the weekend. It's a testament to how well it's been performing in most places.

Now, the number you've been waiting for...

Friday Estimate: $1,418,952

If these estimates hold, it will have clobbered Spider-Man 3's record by over $460,000.

3-day estimate - $2,965,546

As for the weekend, Transformers 3 saw huge demand being met on Friday so expect a fall of more than 55% on Saturday. 4m for the 5-day weekend is a lock now.

Holdovers, meanwhile, didn't fare quite as well. Beginning of the Great Revival's drop looks great on paper but Saturday and Sunday will see huge drops of over 65%. X-Men finally had a horrible drop. After weeks of great support, Transformers 3 killed it. It will fall over 70% on Saturday/Sunday. Treasure Inn will fall over 70% as well.

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			July 2
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	--	65,471	--	-16.3%
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	--	12,292	--	-12.2%
3	Beginning Of The Great Revival	5,555	2,623	-52.8%	-3.5%
4	Certified Copy	--	468	--	--
5	Dangerous Encounters Of The First Kind	--	265	--	--

What...?

Is this a joke?

Is 5m actually possible? I give up. See you all next week.

(Just kidding.)

I stand corrected. It's not falling over 55% today.

TF3 has already passed Fast Five, Hangover II, and Green Lantern in total gross and is looking to take over First Class by the end of Saturday. As expected, opening against nothing on a holiday weekend really helped it. The question is why no other movies are willing to put up a fight against it.

Because the 3D Transformers 3 version stole their screens? All the holdovers are either left with morning shows, 1 noon and one night show or none at all.

Even the 2D version of Transformers 3 is getting less showtimes this weekend.

This is why X-Men is going to fall more than 90% today and tomorrow from last weekend while Treasure Inn will fall more than 85%. Beginning Of The Great Revival may be able to luck out with a 60% drop today and a 65% drop tomorrow. Overall, if you weren't Transformers, you got showtimes slashed.

This is common among event movies on their opening weekend. They will cut the showtimes of others even if it's not really justified with business. They will completely dominate the marketplace until another shows up or if there's a number of smaller sized hits that comes out on the same weekend.

Friday Actuals
Transformers 3 - $1,286,235
Beginning Of The Great Revival - $38,552

More than 20 theaters reported a PSA of higher than $12,850. UA iSquare IMAX posted close to a $38,552 PSA.

	Saturday adm.				July 2
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	--	110,853	--	-16.0%
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	--	21,982	--	-13.4%
3	Beginning Of The Great Revival	15,959	6,190	-61.2%	-21.3%
4	X-Men: First Class	12,089	1,328	-89.0%	-60.5%
5	Certified Copy	--	1,264	--	--

3D - 83.45%
2D - 16.55%

Very good drop for Transformers. Horrible drop for Beginning Of The Great Revival. Horrendous for X-Men. Good number for Certified Copy.

Transformers 3 could still hit 5m although the adjustment downwards makes 5.5m a longshot at the moment.

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			July 3
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	--	64,849	--	-1.0%
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	--	11,506	--	-6.4%
3	Beginning Of The Great Revival	7,389	2,317	-68.6%	-11.7%
4	Certified Copy	--	718	--	+53.4%
5	Treasure Inn	1,625	682	-58.0%	--

Still great for Transformers 3. Beginning Of The Great Revival collapsed. Very good for Certified Copy. Treasure Inn will drop down during the day.

Already at more than $2.5m 3-Day, with Saturday and sunday still to come it'll blow past Spiderman 3's US$ opening record of $3.7m (6-Day opening) and last year's Toy Story 3 ($3.2m)

IMO, Bridesmaids should have opened last week to court young audiences who are not interested in The Founding of a Party. Good WOM would have saved it from screen losses this week.

Chinese-speaking adventure comedy Treasure Inn should have opened this weekend as it would offer a good alternative to the English-speaking robotics.

June 30 Recap



I doubt it. Transformers breaking out was not just related to lack of competition but moreso because people are spending more and want to see the big Hollywood flicks.

Good WOM would not have saved Bridesmaids. Transformers would have stolen almost all of its screens on the weekend. It's a shame that Hong Kong is a blockbuster-driven market. We simply don't have the screens to accommodate more than 1 film if an event movie opens. At this point, it's moot given that Bridesmaids doesn't even have a release date anymore.

Treasure Inn would have received the same fate. It would have done even worse this weekend due to market demand for Transformers. At least it had a chance last week to earn some money.

	Sunday adm.				July 3
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	--	104,319	--	-5.9%
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	--	21,406	--	-2.6%
3	Beginning Of The Great Revival	17,510	6,179	-64.7%	-0.2%
4	Treasure Inn	5,747	1,458	-74.6%	--
5	Certified Copy	--	1,285	--	+1.7%

Transformers 3 admissions for Sunday - 125,725

3D - 82.97%
2D - 17.03%

	Weekend adm.			June 30-July 3
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	--	419,863	--
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	--	81,800	--
3	Beginning Of The Great Revival	49,662	23,614	-52.5%

Transformers 3 admissions for the weekend - 501,663

3D - 83.69%
2D - 16.31%

Let's get straight to the facts, shall we? Records broken by Transformers 3

Biggest non-holiday day (debatable...but Paramount is calling it as such...)
4-day record (Thu-Sun only)
5-day record (Wed-Sun)
Highest single day gross
First movie to break 4m in X days (4 or 5)
First movie to break 5m in X days (5 or 6)
First movie to gross more than 1m on 3 consecutive days (Fri-Sun)
First movie to break 500,000 admissions opening weekend (Thu-Sun)
First movie to break 500,000 admissions in one weekend (Thu-Sun)
Biggest opening all time
(Probable) Highest Per Screen Average ever?

No amount of superlatives is able to describe Transformers 3's performance this weekend.

Saturday Estimate

3D - $906,002
2D - $179,659
Total - $1,085,661

Sunday Estimate

3D - $852,600
2D - $174,951
Total - $1,027,551

4-day Estimate: $4,172,853
5-day Estimate: $4,946,041

Actuals will decide if this crosses 5m in 5 days.

TF2-TF3 Comparison

TF2 5-day: $2,819,774
TF3 5-day: $4,946,041 (+75.4%)

Beginning Of The Great Revival had an interesting 53% drop. While Friday saved it from dropping more than 55%, it dropped harder and harder throughout the weekend (excluding Friday). At this point, it might not make it to $550,000.

X-Men fell pretty hard on Saturday/Sunday but that was expected given that it was almost shut out from getting any showtimes on the weekend. Looks like it's dropping around 75% for the weekend.

Treasure Inn had an interesting weekend but will ultimately fall more than 80% when actuals come in.

From Hollywood Reporter about Transformers 3's opening weekend: