DP07 we just have to look at the MATRIX franchise to see what a bad idea filming back to back can be like. An advertisement doesn't make it the real thing.

LOTR

Really filming back to back isn't a good or bad thing for the films.

I don't know what your last sentence means.

Actually I think thats a stupid move for Pirates 3. Why put it on one week after Shrek 3 and on the same weekend of what I beleive will be a mega big Used Guys - when there is all of June and most of July to open it. Its foolish pushing all these big films in a 4 week window - when the first 3 weeks of June are EMPTY. Pirates would work better in an early June Nemo/Cars spot.

I smell a Matrix 3 like drop for Pirates 3.

Then in the space of 5 days (June 29-July 4) we have Ratatoullie, Evan Almighty, Fantastic Four 2 and Transformers all opening. It defies logic.

I cant see why Ratatouillie cant make a debut in mid to late July - the big animated film of the second half of summer.

Tranformers and FF42 will have to atleast have a week between them and Evan can move anywhere in June or July or even the first week of August.

These studios should be claiming the best dates for their films. What are they waiting for? Indy 4? rush Hour 3? These films arent even guaranteed.

Bourn Ultimatum should claim an early June or late July spot from here on.

Brilliant move for Meet the Roninsons though!! It would have been killed in December.

That is a huge move for Ratouille. It could outdo Finding Nemo if Cars does solid business, and if Rat. is good. But that is an excellent release date for it.

It's always like this early on though. At Van Helsing, Troy, and Mission Impossible 3 all went for the same date at one point I believe (before Shrek 2 took it).

They will spread out. Used Guys will move into June. FF2 will move a week once a Transformers trailer hits. After Pirates 2 opens I think Shrek 3 might move.

That summer will be extremely crowded though. We will likely have something like 10 weeks in a row with 50m openers.

True. I just dont want the studios to trample each other when there is no need.

I cant see Shrek moving. Though it only makes sense for Used Guys to move if POTC3 remains on Memorial Day. Shrek and Spidey are films that can co-exist with any film (AOTC, DAT, HP3 etc). Thats why I think POTC3 has the most to lose.

Still alot of prime dates left. Early June, Mid June, Mid July, Late July, early Aug.

If POTC has to stay where it is - IMO id like to see:

May 4 - Spiderman 3
May 11 - 1,000 BC
May 18 - Shrek 3
May 25 - POTC 3
June 1 -
June 8 - Used Guys, Surf's Up
June 15 - The Bourne Ultimatum
June 22 - Evan Almighty
June 29 - Ratatouillie
July 4 - Transformers
July 13 - Fantastic Four 2
July 20 - Avatar (Project 880)
July 27 - Indiana Jones 4
Aug 3 - Sin City 2, Underdog
Aug 10 - Rush Hour 3
Aug 17 -
Aug 24 -

What else is there??

LOTR had a solid and world-famous book-source to work off of, and all 3 were big-time Oscar quality films. It was planned from the beginning to release 3 Decembers straight, so there was no problem filming them back to back.

Pirates series...screams The Matrix to me. Apparantely it's ending on a cliffhanger, with the big competition, people won't want it that soon. They don't even have a finished screenplay yet, and they've started filming. I just don't like where it's headed. I think that factoring in competition, my guess is Pirates 3 opens to about 60-70 mil.

Shrek 3 will be the monster of summer. Now that's the one that I think will smash all opening records. Pirates 2 might barely take the record after this year, then Shrek 3 will come out and destroy it all with like 150 mil+ I believe.

But Pirates of the Caribbean 3 is coming out almost a year after the second one is, not six months like Revolutions did. And people didn't like Reloaded in general, not just because it ended in a cliffhanger.

If Dead Man's Chest can entertain and leave people wanting more with the cliffhanger, I don't think we'll see the same situation that we did with The Matrix Reloaded and Revolutions.

That's why I said 60-70 mil+, which is a lot more than 40 mil+ Revolutions. I don't expect Pirates 2 to smash all records like DP07 does. I'm hesitant to say it'll break 100 mil, I have it personally in high 90s. So a drop to 60 mil wouldn't be nearly as much, it'd be kind've decent.

SPIDERMAN 3 and SHREK 3 will pull the crowds in May.

Even if POTC 2 does $400 m +, Shrek 3 will NOT move. I mean, Shrek 2 by then will adjust to just under $500 m! Shrek 2 is the 3rd biggest film ever. They aren't going to move.

Shrek 3 will hurt POTC3. The Shrek franchise is far far stronger in pulling the mainstream audience than POTC series. The best i can see POTC3 doing is DAT opening weekend numbers (against Shrek 2) which would still be good. Better legs would get it to $200m+.

Yes, of course Shrek 3 won't move. It's the #1 player of the year, if anything POTC 3 would move. I expect Shrek 3 to do 140 mil+ opening weekend, so POTC3 will have trouble contending with it's second week. I wouldn't count out Pirates moving actually, I could see them not wrapping it up in time.

with all the competition i expect one to disappoint at the box office...or two...

I can't believe the stuff I'm reading. "Even if POTC 2 does $400 m +" "The Shrek franchise is far far stronger in pulling the mainstream audience than POTC series." "Shrek 3 won't move. It's the #1 player of the year" "The best i can see POTC3 doing is DAT opening weekend numbers (against Shrek 2) which would still be good."

POTC won't just do 400m, I really can't see how it won't hit 450m at this point. People had the same attitude towards Shrek 2 before it opened; many predictions were under 250m, even 200m. I don't remember anyone within even 50m of my prediction. At least BJ is here this time.

If WOM is solid for POTC 2, like I expect, I see Shrek 2 opening with as much over it's 3 day weekend as POTC 3 will have in it's first 2 days. I'd give POTC 3 over 200m for the 4 day weekend.

You may disagree with me on POTC 2, but if it opens with 162m like I expect, you have to admit it's quite possible that Shrek 3 will move.

And if POTC 2 is 2nd biggest ever by a large margin?

I don't see Pirates 2 opening to 160 mil+. That's my logic. The fanbase isn't FUCKING CRAZY enough to push it that high. Star Wars has an insane fanbase, and they only made it to 158 mil 4-day. People like the film, but demolishing the opening weekend record by almost +50%? Nah. I'm struggling to see it passing 100 mil on opening weekend.

I personally feel there was much more anticipation at this time last year for Star Wars than there is for Pirates 2 now. People like the film, but there won't be the ultra-cult campouts and week-long linesaving like there was for that film or the original Harry Potter. Some people will yes, but it won't be to the same velocity.

Pirates also doesn't have nearly the same adult backing as Shrek 2, Spiderman, Star Wars Episode III. To crush the opening weekend record by THAT much, with a handicapped demographic? It ain't happening.

It's not the hardcore fans that matter. Star Trek and Serentity have those, while Shrek does not. POTC doesn't need them whatsoever. They earn a few million, but it's the casual fans that create massive numbers. SW and HP don't do well because of their biggest fans.



POTC doesn't appeal to adults? Are you kidding me? It does so far, far more then Shrek.

Shrek get's tonnnsssss of adults. They all have to accompany their kids to watching the movie, and from what I know most of them generally love the comedy and animation aspect itself anyways. I don't think Pirates compares in that area. For example, older-ish women? Like most action or adventure movies, Pirates won't have any in that area.

And the reason we don't hear about the Shrek 2 diehard fans, is because they're all kids. If we go back to 2004 to right before the movie was released, and if we asked any kid about Shrek 2, they'd go nuts.

HP and SW rely very very heavily off of that group. Most people who go to HP opening weekend are readers, or people accompaning readers. If the Matrix didn't have such a cult, it's sequel wouldn't have made it to 90 mil+.

I agree that an opening weekend like $160 million will not happen, but I strongly disagree with your idea of Pirates' general audience. It appealed to kids, adults, teens - pretty much everyone. And, yeah, I'm including "older-ish" women.

Um, Shack?

I know more women who liked Pirates of the Caribbean then men (it's my mom's favorite movie, for example).

Uh guys? Just because one movie is going to make more then the other or is higher profile doesn't mean that it won't move for reasons beyond competition. And even so, it's not like some films can't survive together. Just look at this Memorial Day weekend. Madagascar, The Longest Yard and Star Wars 3 all managed to make what, around 50 million each that weekend despite having similar audineces. I don't expect Shrek and POTC to open right next to each other, and Narnia and Kong five days apart showed that no matter how big the movies are they can be hurt by opening too close. I'm sure they won't be just a week from each other, but it's not like either will need a holiday weekend to open over 100 million (assuming POTC 2 has good WOM).