Projections:

I expect Ray to increase more into the night. Both had fake reviews early which should have an impact, but I expect Ray to reach 1050 and Saw to reach 980.

That looks like 5.1-6.2 for Saw. For Ray my original ratio projection would mean about 9.5m-13.3m even when adjusted for the fake reviews. That's probably very unlikely. However, even if the ratio is high at around 130, that would still 7.7m. I'd sat 8m-10m as of now.

However, this might be one of those weeks where everything drops at night (Resident Evil 2-Cellular weekend) in which case everything would change.

So...theoretically Ray could get a $25+ million weekend?

Yes, I think it's very likely actually as I expect a good internal mutliplier.

Well, Halloween will hurt it as people will flock to see The Grudge and SAW and adult themed movies will drop hard. Furthermore, the African American audiences will make it somewhat frontloaded. I think it'd need to get at least $8.7-9 million on Friday to get a $25 million weekend.

I don't think so. Last time holloween was like this, most films dropped 40%-50%. Also, African-American audeinces don't tend to rush out on Friday at any time of the year but possibly summer or during a holiday period. If I remember correctly movies like Barbershop and The Fighting Temptations had good internal multipliers. This film also has an older audience. It should be one of the oldest this year. That will reduce the Friday number. Also, I'm willing to bet it will have great legs, and that makes a good Saturday increase even more likely.

I see it increasing at least 30% on Sat.

It will have very good legs, I agree there. It is also very likely to cross $100 million. I see a Friday of around $8 million with a 35% increase on Saturday, but a 50-55% drop on Sunday. That will leave the movie with around $24 million over the weekend, ebough to get the top spot of the charts. I see a more or less big expansion next weekend (hey, if Barbershop 2 can get 2700+ theatres, hehe!) resulting in a drop of under 35%. Heck, it could even have over $60 million after 3 weekends, hehe.

Ray-635, +75, B+

Saw-631, +90, B

Birth-63, C

Ray 635, +75, B+
Saw 631, +90, B

Next update in a few minutes. Looks like I might be wrong about Ray getting more reviews. However, it would seem nearly certain to get mroe at the BO since it should have a much lower ratio.

Go figure, after 50 minutes we both decide to do it at the same time. :wink:

Anyway, do you know when they started alowing reviews for Birth?

Ray 655, +17, B+
Saw 664, +33, B

I didn't realize they weren't allowing reviews for Birth at one point. I just thought that you weren't posting Birth numbers because it wasn't in wide release. I guess they updated it when they updated all the other movies.

We usually track stuff in over 400 theaters if it's an opener or if it is getting a major enough expansion.

Yeah, earlier today they had the release date as Nov. 5, so they were not allowing reviews for it.

Anyway:
Birth - 67, +4, C

Should reach around 85.

Saw - 675, +11, B
Ray - 655, +3, B+
Birth - 67, +0, C

We should probably see big increases next hour.

EDIT: Nevermind. :wink:

Saw - 772, +97, B
Ray - 736, +81, B+
Birth - 78, +11, C

Great friday numbers for Ray and Saw, looks like they will outperform my derby numbers.

Saw - 863, +91, B
Ray - 797, +61, B+
Birth - 83, +5, C

Final update:

Saw - 893, +30, B
Ray - 818, +21, B+
Birth - 87, +4, C

Both Ray and Saw prove to be fairly frontloaded over the course of the day, moreso Ray then Saw. You can see the flood of fake reviews with the 3:30 AM update.

Ray
Daily Total Hourly Increase % of Daily Total
12:30 AM 9 9 1.10%
1:30 AM 12 3 1.47%
2:30 AM 12 0 1.47%
3:30 AM 57 45 6.97%
4:30 AM 66 9 8.07%
5:30 AM
6:30 AM
7:30 AM
8:30 AM 189 23.11%
9:30 AM 206 17 25.18%
10:30 AM 265 59 32.40%
11:30 AM 327 62 39.98%
12:30 PM 366 39 44.74%
1:30 PM 371 5 45.35%
2:30 PM
3:30 PM 484 59.17%
4:30 PM 524 40 64.06%
5:30 PM 532 8 65.04%
6:30 PM 560 28 68.46%
7:30 PM 635 75 77.63%
8:30 PM 652 17 79.71%
9:30 PM 655 3 80.07%
10:30 PM 736 81 89.98%
11:30 PM 797 61 97.43%
12:30 AM 818 21 100.00%

Saw
Daily Total Hourly Increase % of Daily Total
12:30 AM 5 5 0.56%
1:30 AM 8 3 0.90%
2:30 AM 8 0 0.90%
3:30 AM 61 53 6.83%
4:30 AM 66 5 7.39%
5:30 AM
6:30 AM
7:30 AM
8:30 AM 143 16.01%
9:30 AM 159 16 17.81%
10:30 AM 215 56 24.08%
11:30 AM 270 55 30.24%
12:30 PM 312 42 34.94%
1:30 PM 324 12 36.28%
2:30 PM
3:30 PM 447 50.06%
4:30 PM 495 48 55.43%
5:30 PM 505 10 56.55%
6:30 PM 541 36 60.58%
7:30 PM 631 90 70.66%
8:30 PM 664 33 74.36%
9:30 PM 675 11 75.59%
10:30 PM 772 97 86.45%
11:30 PM 863 91 96.64%
12:30 AM 893 30 100.00%

Birth
Daily Total Hourly Increase % of Daily Total
12:30 AM
1:30 AM
2:30 AM
3:30 AM
4:30 AM
5:30 AM
6:30 AM
7:30 AM
8:30 AM
9:30 AM
10:30 AM
11:30 AM
12:30 PM
1:30 PM
2:30 PM
3:30 PM
4:30 PM
5:30 PM
6:30 PM
7:30 PM 63 72.41%
8:30 PM 67 4 77.01%
9:30 PM 67 0 77.01%
10:30 PM 78 11 89.66%
11:30 PM 83 5 95.40%
12:30 AM 87 4 100.00%

The much weaker then expected increases into the night for Ray make me think that it will get a ratio of 95-125. Since Saw did relatively better, I would lower my projection to 140-170 as xiayun originally predicted. To adjust for the fake reviews, I'm going to subtract 45 reviews from Saw and 35 from Ray.

Projections:
Ray - 6.3m-8.2m
Saw - 5m-6.1m

Birth lost some reviews due to there not being any for early in the day. This is a rough estimate, but it would likely be about 105. With the poor grade and very low theater count I could see it having a ratio of 300 (or higher) even with an older audience. With a 200-300 ratio:

Birth - .35m-.53m

Relatively good hold for The Grudge from last week. The Fri-Fri drop at the BO should be at about the same level or a little higher though with the low ratio last Friday.

Surviving Christmas should hold up better then its 65% drop since the ratio has been declining. 60% drop at the BO is probably the max.

Also looks like the theater losses are having their impact on RYV.

Nice hold for I Heart Huckabees. The ratio has increased a bit, so drop should be larger then that.

Friday 10/29
Beginning of Day End of Day Daily Total
1 ) Saw 0 863 863
2 ) The Grudge 12085 12886 801
3 ) Ray 0 797 797
4 ) Team America: World Police 9148 9366 218
5 ) Shark Tale 12058 12260 202
6 ) Friday Night Lights 7188 7341 153
7 ) Shall We Dance? 3584 3732 148
8 ) Ladder 49 8376 8510 134
9 ) Surviving Christmas 1783 1901 118
10 ) Taxi 4958 5075 117
11 ) The Forgotten 8440 8543 103
12 ) Birth 0 83 83
13 ) I Heart Huckabees 947 1021 74
14 ) Raise Your Voice 6571 6629 58

Previous Day Daily Increase/Decrease
The Grudge 624 28.37%
Team America: World Police 191 14.14%
Shark Tale 165 22.42%
Friday Night Lights 130 17.69%
Shall We Dance? 74 100.00%
Ladder 49 86 55.81%
Surviving Christmas 86 37.21%
Taxi 85 37.65%
The Forgotten 73 41.10%
I Heart Huckabees 50 48.00%
Raise Your Voice 50 16.00%

7 days eariler Weekly Increase/Decrease
Shall We Dance? 172 -13.95%
Ladder 49 156 -14.10%
I Heart Huckabees 91 -18.68%
Taxi 159 -26.42%
Friday Night Lights 215 -28.84%
The Forgotten 156 -33.97%
Shark Tale 312 -35.26%
Team America: World Police 408 -46.57%
The Grudge 1825 -56.11%
Raise Your Voice 156 -62.82%
Surviving Christmas 337 -64.99%

Ok, forgive me for saying this, but I can't help myself. We are now the second most viewed thread on the forums, behind only the conversation thread.

Seems Ray and Saw are doing QUITE well.

WOW! Ray has an A- now, thats fantastic. This movie might not be #1 this week, but it'll have some fantastic wom.

Once Yahoo weeded out the fake reviews and the reviews from actual viewers started to mount, the Rating has constantly risen. That is an indicator of great WOM.