The Avatar Prediction|Tracking Thread/ (Aug. 27 re-release)
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Nazgul9 wrote: Where are your sellout reports BJ? For $20m+ it needs a lot of these...  theaters just opened, sellouts should commence within the next hour  Only got two yesterday  _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:12 pm |
 
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Mesjarch
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 5:41 am
Posts: 2388
Location: Poland
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread It needs to go up 51% to make 20M. It's not that easy to have a 50% up for a PG-13 movie that makes 13.3M on friday.
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:12 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Mesjarch wrote: It needs to go up 51% to make 20M. It's not that easy to have a 50% up for a PG-13 movie that makes 13.3M on friday. avatar will pull a fewllowship and pump up 90% if it has to. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:13 pm |
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Mesjarch
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 5:41 am
Posts: 2388
Location: Poland
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Nazgul9 wrote: Where are your sellout reports BJ? For $20m+ it needs a lot of these... Well I saw 8 sold out IMAX shows that weren't sold out yesterday in Chicago, and 2 sold out shows in IMAX in New York + 2 more 3D Digital shows sold out at the same theater.
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:15 pm |
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Mesjarch
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 5:41 am
Posts: 2388
Location: Poland
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread BJ wrote: Mesjarch wrote: It needs to go up 51% to make 20M. It's not that easy to have a 50% up for a PG-13 movie that makes 13.3M on friday. avatar will pull a fewllowship and pump up 90% if it has to. Get back to Earth for once 
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:16 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Mesjarch wrote: Nazgul9 wrote: Where are your sellout reports BJ? For $20m+ it needs a lot of these... Well I saw 8 sold out IMAX shows that weren't sold out yesterday in Chicago, and 2 sold out shows in IMAX in New York + 2 more 3D Digital shows sold out at the same theater. I'm hopping for a 100% bump, the film died out last night after 8pm, I don't think it will have that problem today. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:18 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread BJ wrote: Mesjarch wrote: Nazgul9 wrote: Where are your sellout reports BJ? For $20m+ it needs a lot of these... Well I saw 8 sold out IMAX shows that weren't sold out yesterday in Chicago, and 2 sold out shows in IMAX in New York + 2 more 3D Digital shows sold out at the same theater. I'm hopping for a 100% bump, the film died out last night after 8pm, I don't think it will have that problem today. Why exactly did it die out ?
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:18 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread soagg wrote: BJ wrote: Mesjarch wrote: Nazgul9 wrote: Where are your sellout reports BJ? For $20m+ it needs a lot of these... Well I saw 8 sold out IMAX shows that weren't sold out yesterday in Chicago, and 2 sold out shows in IMAX in New York + 2 more 3D Digital shows sold out at the same theater. I'm hopping for a 100% bump, the film died out last night after 8pm, I don't think it will have that problem today. Why exactly did it die out ? I don't know, but it did. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:19 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
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Location: Germany
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread All i hear is IMAX, IMAX, IMAX...
It needs a lot of regular 3d shows to sell out.
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:20 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Nazgul9 wrote: All i hear is IMAX, IMAX, IMAX...
It needs a lot of regular 3d shows to sell out. indeed. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:25 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Mesjarch wrote: It needs to go up 51% to make 20M. It's not that easy to have a 50% up for a PG-13 movie that makes 13.3M on friday. If it doesn't make at least $19.5m today i'll throw a tantrum. _________________
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:29 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread BJ wrote: Nazgul9 wrote: All i hear is IMAX, IMAX, IMAX...
It needs a lot of regular 3d shows to sell out. indeed. i have seen about dozen 3d sellouts in nyc. sellouts since 3pm. 20m sat for shoo. http://www.fandango.com/avatarindigital ... tion=10010
_________________
The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:42 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread How does that compare to last friday (January 1st) or saturday (January 2nd)?
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:44 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
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Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread same here, I checked Brooklyn, over 10 sold out 3-D showings after 3pm excluding IMAX, all the IMAX was sold out. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:45 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Nazgul9 wrote: How does that compare to last friday (January 1st) or saturday (January 2nd)? I don't know, didn't monitor anything outside Alaska.  _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:46 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Vanilla better predict at least $21m tomorrow (he usually overpredicts by a little).
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:49 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Nazgul9 wrote: How does that compare to last friday (January 1st) or saturday (January 2nd)? sellouts started earlier last sat(around 130/2pm). key thing about last sat was every show sold out that night. we have to see if it can manage that.
_________________
The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:59 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Nazgul9 wrote: Vanilla better predict at least $21m tomorrow (he usually overpredicts by a little). And anchorage has started selling out, first show to do so was the 12pm, started a half hour earlier last saturday but we now have 3 showing before noon instead of the two we had last wk. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 5:11 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
| Day | Avatar | Return of the King | Dead Man's Chest | The Dark Knight | Titanic |
| Wed | - | $34,450,834
- / -
$34,450,834 / 1 | - | - | - |
| Thu | - | $17,019,987
-50.6% / -
$51,470,821 / 2 | - | - | - |
| Fri | $26,752,099
- / -
$26,752,099 / 1 | $21,811,549
+28.2% / -
$73,282,370 / 3 | $55,830,600
- / -
$55,830,600 / 1 | $67,165,092
- / -
$67,165,092 / 1 | $8,658,814
- / -
$8,658,814 / 1 |
| Sat | $25,529,036
-4.6% / -
$52,281,135 / 2 | $27,492,053
+26% / -
$100,774,423 / 4 | $44,443,225
-20.4% / -
$100,273,825 / 2 | $47,650,240
-29.1% / -
$114,815,332 / 2 | $10,672,013
+23.3% / -
$19,330,827 / 2 |
| Sun | $24,744,346
-3.1% / -
$77,025,481 / 3 | $23,326,111
-15.2% / -
$124,100,534 / 5 | $35,360,729
-20.4% / -
$135,634,554 / 3 | $43,596,151
-8.5% / -
$158,411,483 / 3 | $9,307,304
-12.8% / -
$28,638,131 / 3 |
| Mon | $16,385,820
-33.8% / -
$93,411,301 / 4 | $13,563,208
-41.9% / -
$137,663,742 / 6 | $18,140,271
-48.7% / -
$153,774,825 / 4 | $24,493,313
-43.8% / -
$182,904,796 / 4 | $5,578,212
-40.1% / -
$34,216,343 / 4 |
| Tue | $16,086,461
-1.8% / -
$109,497,762 / 5 | $12,476,242
-8% / -
$150,139,984 / 7 | $15,731,919
-13.3% / -
$169,506,744 / 5 | $20,868,722
-14.8% / -
$203,773,518 / 5 | $6,003,119
+7.6% / -
$40,219,462 / 5 |
| Wed | $16,445,291
+2.2% / -
$125,943,053 / 6 | $7,544,400
-39.5% / -78.1%
$157,684,384 / 8 | $14,154,725
-10% / -
$183,661,469 / 6 | $18,377,288
-11.9% / -
$222,150,806 / 6 | $3,571,345
-40.5% / -
$43,790,807 / 6 |
| Thu | $11,150,998
-32.2% / -
$137,094,051 / 7 | $13,986,220
+85.4% / -17.8%
$171,670,604 / 9 | $12,358,033
-12.7% / -
$196,019,502 / 7 | $16,464,405
-10.4% / -
$238,615,211 / 7 | $9,178,529
+157% / -
$52,969,336 / 7 |
| Fri | $23,095,046
+107.1% / -13.7%
$160,189,097 / 8 | $19,152,196
+36.9% / -12.2%
$190,822,800 / 10 | $18,544,356
+50.1% / -66.8%
$214,563,858 / 8 | $23,232,292
+41.1% / -65.4%
$261,847,503 / 8 | $12,122,298
+32.1% / +40%
$65,091,634 / 8 |
| Sat | $28,274,406
+22.4% / +10.8%
$188,463,503 / 9 | $17,249,267
-9.9% / -37.3%
$208,072,067 / 11 | $24,846,771
+34% / -44.1%
$239,410,629 / 9 | $28,272,494
+21.7% / -40.7%
$290,119,997 / 9 | $12,466,455
+2.8% / +16.8%
$77,558,089 / 9 |
| Sun | $24,247,681
-14.2% / -2%
$212,711,184 / 10 | $14,196,641
-17.7% / -39.1%
$222,268,708 / 12 | $18,954,137
-23.7% / -46.4%
$258,364,766 / 10 | $23,661,680
-16.3% / -45.7%
$313,781,677 / 10 | $10,866,920
-12.8% / +16.8%
$88,425,009 / 10 |
| Mon | $19,418,139
-19.9% / +18.5%
$232,129,323 / 11 | $10,052,588
-29.2% / -25.9%
$232,321,296 / 13 | $7,912,691
-58.3% / -56.4%
$266,277,457 / 11 | $10,518,116
-55.5% / -57.1%
$324,299,793 / 11 | $7,942,520
-26.9% / +42.4%
$96,367,529 / 11 |
| Tue | $18,290,628
-5.8% / +13.7%
$250,419,951 / 12 | $9,615,240
-4.4% / -22.9%
$241,936,536 / 14 | $7,490,004
-5.3% / -52.4%
$273,767,461 / 12 | $9,629,366
-8.4% / -53.9%
$333,929,159 / 12 | $8,012,909
+0.9% / +33.5%
$104,380,438 / 12 |
| Wed | $18,466,123
+1% / +12.3%
$268,886,074 / 13 | $7,509,391
-21.9% / -0.5%
$249,445,927 / 15 | $6,448,468
-13.9% / -54.4%
$280,215,929 / 13 | $8,755,141
-9.1% / -52.4%
$342,684,300 / 13 | $8,213,735
+2.5% / +130%
$112,594,173 / 13 |
| Thu | $14,738,136
-20.2% / +32.2%
$283,624,210 / 14 | $12,784,656
+70.2% / -8.6%
$262,230,583 / 16 | $6,468,103
+0.3% / -47.7%
$286,684,032 / 14 | $8,402,546
-4% / -49%
$351,086,846 / 14 | $11,558,520
+40.7% / +25.9%
$124,152,693 / 14 |
| Fri | $25,274,008
+71.5% / +9.4%
$308,898,218 / 15 | $10,602,130
-17.1% / -44.6%
$272,832,713 / 17 | $9,992,181
+54.5% / -46.1%
$296,676,213 / 15 | $12,709,035
+51.3% / -45.3%
$363,795,881 / 15 | $11,698,861
+1.2% / -3.5%
$135,851,554 / 15 |
| Sat | $25,835,551
+2.2% / -8.6%
$334,733,769 / 16 | $10,563,221
-0.4% / -38.8%
$283,395,934 / 18 | $14,665,667
+46.8% / -41%
$311,341,880 / 16 | $17,191,150
+35.3% / -39.2%
$380,987,031 / 16 | $12,726,625
+8.8% / +2.1%
$148,578,179 / 16 |
| Sun | $17,381,129
-32.7% / -28.3%
$352,114,898 / 17 | $7,015,027
-33.6% / -50.6%
$290,410,961 / 19 | $10,557,353
-28% / -44.3%
$321,899,233 / 17 | $12,764,034
-25.8% / -46.1%
$393,751,065 / 17 | $8,889,792
-30.1% / -18.2%
$157,467,971 / 17 |
| Mon | $8,094,554
-53.4% / -58.3%
$360,209,452 / 18 | $2,228,471
-68.2% / -77.8%
$292,639,432 / 20 | $4,304,211
-59.2% / -45.6%
$326,203,444 / 18 | $6,287,429
-50.7% / -40.2%
$400,038,494 / 18 | $3,022,271
-66% / -61.9%
$160,490,242 / 18 |
| Tue | $7,327,233
-9.5% / -59.9%
$367,536,685 / 19 | $2,015,440
-9.6% / -79%
$294,654,872 / 21 | $4,220,967
-1.9% / -43.6%
$330,424,411 / 19 | $5,661,240
-10% / -41.2%
$405,699,734 / 19 | $3,044,822
+0.7% / -62%
$163,535,064 / 19 |
| Wed | $6,909,167
-5.7% / -62.6%
$374,445,852 / 20 | $1,805,059
-10.4% / -76%
$296,459,931 / 22 | $3,709,259
-12.1% / -42.5%
$334,133,670 / 20 | $5,077,367
-10.3% / -42%
$410,777,101 / 20 | $2,841,351
-6.7% / -65.4%
$166,376,415 / 20 |
| Thu | $6,094,445
-11.8% / -58.6%
$380,540,297 / 21 | $1,651,907
-8.5% / -87.1%
$298,111,838 / 23 | $3,745,513
+1% / -42.1%
$337,879,183 / 21 | $4,734,366
-6.8% / -43.7%
$415,511,467 / 21 | $2,789,088
-1.8% / -75.9%
$169,165,503 / 21 |
| Fri | Est. $13,275,000
+117.8% / -47.5%
$393,815,000 / 22 | $3,676,960
+122.6% / -65.3%
$301,788,798 / 24 | $5,966,100
+59.3% / -40.3%
$343,845,283 / 22 | $7,577,362
+60.1% / -40.4%
$423,088,829 / 22 | $7,738,150
+177.4% / -33.9%
$176,903,653 / 22 |
_________________
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 6:18 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Titanic catches TDK. Avatar is now $217 mil up on Titanic and still gaining until after next weekend. Avatar is now behind TDK by $30 mil.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 6:20 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32634
Location: the last free city
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread w00t!  w00t!
_________________
Is it 2028 yet?
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 6:45 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Titanic is unfriggingbelievable, at one point trailing TDK by almost $250m yet it still managed to outgross it in the end. Those are some sexy legs...  _________________
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 6:54 pm |
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Mesjarch
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 5:41 am
Posts: 2388
Location: Poland
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Avatar is doing some good business in NY tonight. There are many sold out shows.
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 7:13 pm |
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mdana
Veteran
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:07 pm
Posts: 3004
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread I don't know if Avatar can increase much on Saturday (like a ROTK Sat. increase). It had numerous sell-outs last night and today, but they are all 3D. For Avatar to increase much over 50% it would have to do it with 2D screens, and I have yet to see one sell out. From monitoring my AMC theaters in VA, MD, and DC, it seems like it does best in suburbia, and less well in areas with a heavier military or African-American population. Avatar is breaking all these records from basically around 3500-4000 screens consisting of 3D screens/IMAX and a small percentage of well performing 2D screen. It has about 2000-2500 screens that are not adding much to the total and pulling in less than $10m and perhaps as low as $5m or so this weekend. What movie has had such a strong core of sell-outs and such a weak outer shell? The only movie I can think of being even vaguely similar is perhaps Borat.
It would be nice if Brandon Gray did some actual reporting on Avatar's screen and box office breakdowns and not just regurgitating the basic numbers the studios feed him. According to Mr. Gray, the 1st weekend 3D accounted for 71%, the 2nd weekend 76.6%, yet the % went down during the 3rd weekend to 75%. I find it very difficult to believe that Avatar's 2nd and 3rd week 3D % of the gross went down when it lost 2D screens and gained 3D screens. It also flies in the face of one 2D showing for every three 3D showings the first weekend and being less than one in six this weekend in theaters I have been sampling. If the 3D core is as strong as I believe, Avatar until it loses its 3D screens (April?) may be able to have 10-20% weekly drops once it sheds most of its 2D screens in the next three weeks, but if Avatar really is only doing 75% on 3D then that may not be a realistic possibility.
This weekend is a difficult environment for a movie like Avatar (NFL playoffs and freezing weather) and $45m+/- is a fantastic total, but Titanic is looking much more formidable than it did on Monday.
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 8:47 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Total gross by the end of the 4th weekend: $425-430 mil
5th Weekend- $32 mil (-25%)
6th Weekend- $21 mil (-35%)
7th Weekend- $14 mil (-35%)
8th Weekend- $10 mil (-30%)
9th Weekend- $7 mil (-30%)
10th Weekend- $5 mil (-30%)
11th-Final Weekend- $10 mil
I think those are reasonable. So just from weekends it's gross will be $524-529 mil
$600 mil is LOCKED.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 11:04 pm |
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