Japan Box-Office: On Hiatus
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
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 Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Actuals Weekend Actuals
June 11-12
今 先 週末 累計 screens 週 題
1 1 657,991,875 ($8,186,717) -4.8%, 6,229,642,598 ($77,690,658) 798 4 パイレーツ・オブ・カリビアン／生命の泉 (Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides)
2 - 288,610,306 ($3,589,877) 288,610,306 ($3,589,887) 282 1 ゴーカイジャー ゴセイジャー スーパー戦隊１９９ヒーロー大決戦 (Gokaiger Goseiger Super Sentai 199 Hero Great Battle)
3 2 184,364,354 ($2,286,977) -9.6%, 584,539,788 ($7,268,293) 303 2 パラダイス・キス (Paradise Kiss)
4 - 158,471,444 ($1,985,046) 172,418,724 ($2,147,992) 519 1 X-MEN：ファースト・ジェネレーション (X-Men: First Class)
5 4 147,897,431 ($1,839,929) -18.0%, 444,572,867 ($5,521,704) 320 2 もし高校野球の女子マネージャーがドラッカーの～ (What If a Female Manager of a High School Baseball Team Read Drunker's "Management?")
6 - 144,082,581 ($1,796,624) 144,082,581 ($1,796,624) 317 1 星守る犬 (Hoshi Mamoru Inu)
7 3 140,987,377 ($1,758,243) -22.9%, 1,067,490,645 ($13,236,884) 277 3 プリンセス トヨトミ (Princess Toyotomi)
8 - 123,870,176 ($1,540,991) 123,870,176 ($1,540,991) 215 1 さや侍 (Samurai Sheath)
9 5 81,546,763 ($1,017,180) -31.1%, 1,955,676,878 ($24,260,394) 320 5 ブラック・スワン (Black Swan)
10 6 48,977,988 ($612,576) -33.6%, 400,814,940 ($5,002,105) 279 3 手塚治虫のブッダ 赤い砂漠よ！美しく (Osamu Tezuka's Buddha Red Desert! Beautiful!)
Pirates will be No.1 again next weekend, and then most likely fall from it's perch when Andalusia: Goddess of Retribution (good for a 500/600 million yen opening) takes over for a few weekends.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Wed Jun 15, 2011 8:59 pm |
 
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Actuals Corpse, where do you get the actuals from. Do they publish both yen and dollar numbers. Because studio seem to have their own exchange rates(they tend to negotiate rates based on pattern they see).
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| Wed Jun 15, 2011 10:59 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Actuals Keyser Söze wrote: Corpse, where do you get the actuals from. Do they publish both yen and dollar numbers. Because studio seem to have their own exchange rates(they tend to negotiate rates based on pattern they see). A few different places: EigaConsultant, Take Kamei "Kamechan" (Hollywood Production Investor), all Japanese language sites I found after Mark Schilling guided me to a few Japanese language blogs and threads last Spring when I emailed him. He's been the biggest asset for my research since then. The studio estimate THR and others used on Sunday for Pirates was way off, though. There is no way a 657 million yen weekend would translate to only $6 million for example. The dollar hasn't been that strong for over 3 years now. BOM and Variety both have over $8 million and $77 million for Pirates like I do, too. _________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Wed Jun 15, 2011 11:29 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Actuals The First Half of the Year is about to end, and here are the results so far:
[JAPANESE FILMS]
1. Space Battleship Yamato 4.04 billion yen
2. Gantz Part 1 3.40 billion yen
3. SP: The Motion Picture - Revolution 3.31 billion yen
4. Partners the Movie 2 3.14 billion yen
5. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence 3.10 billion yen*
6. Gantz Perfect Answer 2.74 billion yen*
7. Doraemon: Nobita and the New Steel Troops 2.45 billion yen
8. Inazuma Eleven 1.74 billion yen
9. Miracle Man of the Pacific 1.50 billion yen
10. Gaku 1.45 billion yen*
11. Abacus and Sword 1.42 billion yen
12. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Feat. Skull Movie Taisen Core 1.38 billion yen
13. Norwegian Wood 1.36 billion yen
14. Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider Den-O Let's Go All Kamen Riders 1.35 billion yen
15. 1,778 Stories of Me and My Wife 1.20 billion yen
16. Crayon Shin-chan: The Golden Spy Mission 1.17 billion yen
17. The Cicada's Eighth Day 1.15 billion yen*
18. Princess Toyotomi 1.07 billion yen*
19. Tomorrow's Joe 1.05 billion yen
20. Hankyu Densha 1.01 billion yen*
Total: 38.97 billion yen ($483 million)
[IMPORTED FILMS]
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 6.80 billion yen
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 6.23 billion yen*
3. The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader 2.61 billion yen
4. Tangled 2.54 billion yen
5. TRON: Legacy 2.08 billion yen
6. Black Swan 1.96 billion yen*
7. The Tourist 1.82 billion yen
8. The King's Speech 1.78 billion yen*
9. Gulliver's Travels 1.54 billion yen
10. The Social Network 1.37 billion yen
11. Red 1.20 billion yen
12. Unstoppable 1.05 billion yen
Total: 30.98 billion yen ($384 million)
Only films that have grossed 1 billion yen or more are included.
*Still In Release
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Thu Jun 16, 2011 11:03 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Actuals Wow didn't realize Unstoppable did so well in Japan...nice 
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| Thu Jun 16, 2011 11:50 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Forecast June 18-19, 2011
Weekend Forecast
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) Week 5
2. Gokaiger Goseiger Super Sentai 199 Hero Great Battle (TOEI) Week 2
3. Paradise Kiss (Warner Bros.) Week 3
4. Hoshi Mamoru Inu (Toho) Week 2
5. What If a Female Manager of a High School Baseball Team Read Drunker's "Management?" (Toho) Week 3
6. X-Men: First Class (Fox) Week 2
7. Princess Toyotomi (Toho) Week 4
8. Samurai Sheath (Shochiku) Week 2
9. Skyline (Shochiku) NEW
10. Black Swan (Fox) Week 6
Pirates 4 will exceed 7 billion yen ($87 million) this weekend. Look for 7.1/7.2 billion yen ($89 million) after 31 days in release. Pirates 2 grossed $84 million USD, so it was easily taken down. Pirates 3 ($102 million USD) will follow by the end of the month.
And none of the openers are going to impress, with all three possibly debuting outside the Top 10. I think Skyline has the most potential (widest release amongst them, too), so I'm including it.
All in all, a pretty boring weekend with Pirates dominating again.
Pirates will be bumped out of first place next weekend with the release of Andalusia: Goddess of Retribution, 4/5 billion yen ($50-60 million) contender and biggest local live-action film this summer. Super 8 also opens, which should be a solid hit for Hollywood.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Sat Jun 18, 2011 1:20 am |
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Bluebomb
Veteran
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Forecast Forgive me if this has already been asked but how will Kung Fu Panda 2 fare later this summer? Is there a chance it can break 20m?
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| Sat Jun 18, 2011 9:49 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Forecast Bluebomb wrote: Forgive me if this has already been asked but how will Kung Fu Panda 2 fare later this summer? Is there a chance it can break 20m? No chance at all I'm afraid. If DW sequels are anything to go by, it'll see a substantial decrease from the original. Not a single DW sequel has ever increased over it's predecessor. It has a poor release date too. After Obon Festival, and it follows the release of Kokuriko Hill, Pokemon 14 and 15, and Cars 2. Just like Dragon last year, actually. DW has always been weak in Japan, but they are almost dead at this point. Monsters Vs Aliens, How To Train Your Dragon, and Shrek Forever After all failed to gross at least 1 billion yen, the mark of a commercial success in the market. And Megamind's release was even cancelled this year probably due to that. Even if 3D is very popular in Japan, it hasn't saved any DW films. _________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Sat Jun 18, 2011 11:46 am |
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Bluebomb
Veteran
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 10:53 am
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Forecast Corpse wrote: Bluebomb wrote: Forgive me if this has already been asked but how will Kung Fu Panda 2 fare later this summer? Is there a chance it can break 20m? No chance at all I'm afraid. If DW sequels are anything to go by, it'll see a substantial decrease from the original. Not a single DW sequel has ever increased over it's predecessor. It has a poor release date too. After Obon Festival, and it follows the release of Kokuriko Hill, Pokemon 14 and 15, and Cars 2. Just like Dragon last year, actually. DW has always been weak in Japan, but they are almost dead at this point. Monsters Vs Aliens, How To Train Your Dragon, and Shrek Forever After all failed to gross at least 1 billion yen, the mark of a commercial success in the market. And Megamind's release was even cancelled this year probably due to that. Even if 3D is very popular in Japan, it hasn't saved any DW films. So what are we looking at here...is 9m feasible?
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| Sat Jun 18, 2011 12:03 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Forecast Bluebomb wrote: Corpse wrote: Bluebomb wrote: Forgive me if this has already been asked but how will Kung Fu Panda 2 fare later this summer? Is there a chance it can break 20m? No chance at all I'm afraid. If DW sequels are anything to go by, it'll see a substantial decrease from the original. Not a single DW sequel has ever increased over it's predecessor. It has a poor release date too. After Obon Festival, and it follows the release of Kokuriko Hill, Pokemon 14 and 15, and Cars 2. Just like Dragon last year, actually. DW has always been weak in Japan, but they are almost dead at this point. Monsters Vs Aliens, How To Train Your Dragon, and Shrek Forever After all failed to gross at least 1 billion yen, the mark of a commercial success in the market. And Megamind's release was even cancelled this year probably due to that. Even if 3D is very popular in Japan, it hasn't saved any DW films. So what are we looking at here...is 9m feasible? I think there is a very slim chance at 1 billion yen ($12 million). Shrek Forever After almost became the first DW film to reach that mark in over 3 years, but fizzled out at 965 million yen. Shrek had the New Year to boost it, though. I would go with 800 million yen (about $10 million) for Panda 2. If it fails to do 1 billion yen though, DW's future here is looking very dim without a successful film in over 3 years. Their releases, like Megamind, will have a difficult time finding a distributor. _________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Sat Jun 18, 2011 12:07 pm |
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pepe pippen
The Dark Knight
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Forecast What happens with DW in Japan? Even a really great movie like HTTYD wasn't apreciated! 
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| Sat Jun 18, 2011 7:11 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
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Posts: 37162
Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Forecast I guess most of their releases being pretty average has hurt over the years, that even a good one like Dragon suffers.
Anyway, data from the Usual Locations, increases/decreases compared to last weekend:
Holdovers:
Pirates 4 (-30.7%)
Gokaiger Goseiger Super Sentai (-40.2%)
Paradise Kiss (-24.6%)
X-Men 5 (-44.1%)
What If a Female Manager of a High School Baseball Team Read Drunker's "Management?" (-33.6%)
Hoshi Mamoru Inu (-27.5%)
Princess Toyotomi (-36.2%)
Samurai Sheath (-35.5%)
Pirates 4 is heading toward a 450-475 million yen ($5.75 million) fifth weekend. And again, something around 7.2 billion yen ($90 million) total.
Openers
When compared to Samurai Sheath's opening last weekend:
Skyline (+66.4%)
127 Hours (+24.3%)
Russian Roulette (-63.1%)
Tokyo Park (-52.5%)
Skyline is the top opener, and should debut with about 85 million yen ($1 million).
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Sun Jun 19, 2011 3:19 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
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Posts: 37162
Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Forecast Weekend Ranking by Location (Toho, Warner, Shikoku): Toho1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) Week 5 2. Gokaiger Goseiger Super Sentai 199 Hero Great Battle (TOEI) Week 2 3. Princess Toyotomi (Toho) Week 4 4. X-Men: First Class (Fox) Week 2 5. Hoshi Mamoru Inu (Toho) Week 2 6. Paradise Kiss (Warner Bros.) Week 3 7. What If a Female Manager of a High School Baseball Team Read Drunker's "Management?" (Toho) Week 3 8. 127 Hours (Gaga) NEW9. Skyline (Shochiku) NEW10. Samurai Sheath (Shochiku) Week 2 http://www.tohotheater.jp/index.htmlI'll post Warner and Shikoku's Rankings if estimates aren't released before then. _________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Sun Jun 19, 2011 9:12 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
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Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Rankings ScreenDaily says $87.5 million for Pirates. Is $120 million still possible?
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Mon Jun 20, 2011 6:35 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Estimates That estimate is low (though not as low) for the third consecutive week.
June 18-19
Weekend Estimates
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) 464 million yen ($5.79 million), -29.5%, Week 5
2. Gokaiger Goseiger Super Sentai 199 Hero Great Battle (TOEI) 176 million yen ($2.20 million), -38.9%, Week 2
3. Paradise Kiss (Warner Bros.) 141 million yen ($1.76 million), -23.3%, Week 3
4. Hoshi Imaru Inu (Toho) 111 million yen ($1.39 million), -23.1%, Week 2
5. What If a Female Manager of a High School Baseball Team Read Drunker's "Management"? (Toho) 99 million yen ($1.24 million), -33.4%, Week 3
6. Princess Toyotomi (Toho) 96 million yen ($1.20 million), -32.1%, Week 4
7. X-Men: First Class (Fox) 95 million yen ($1.19 million), -40.4%, Week 2
8. Skyline (Shochiku) 85 million yen ($1.06 million), NEW
9. Samurai Sheath (Shochiku) 84 million yen ($1.05 million), -32.6%, Week 2
10. Black Swan (Fox) 58 million yen ($.725 million), -28.6%, Week 6
127 Hours missed the top 10 at No.11 with a debut of 38 million yen ($.473 million).
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides has now grossed an estimated 7,103,050,000 yen ($88.79 million) on 4,664,414 admissions after 31 days in release. It soars past Deathly Hallows Part 1 (6.80 billion yen) to become the biggest film of 2011.
I don't know if $120 million is possible with Harry Potter going to cause it a 75% drop or greater next month (it should lose a significant amount of 2D screens that weekend, too, with Ghibli and Pokemon), but it looks to have 9 billion yen ($112 million) pretty locked up.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
Last edited by Corpse on Mon Jun 20, 2011 10:49 am, edited 2 times in total.
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| Mon Jun 20, 2011 10:31 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 37162
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Estimates Pirates of the Caribbean 4:2day total - Y1,209,024,468 ($14.76m), 773,184 admissions 3day total - Y1,518,843,416 ($18.57m), 986,455 admissions 10day total - Y3,606,704,539 ($44.72m), 2,354,111 admissions 17day total - Y5,033,170,433 ($62.96m), 3,302,634 admissions 24day total - Y6,229,642,598 ($77.69m), 4,079,988 admissions 31day total - Y7,103,050,000 ($88.79m) estimate, 4,664,414 admissions Summer 2010 Big 3:Bayside Shakedown 3:
2day total - Y971,993,832 ($11.08m), 707,399 admissions
5day total - Y1.5b ($17.2m), 1.1m admissions
7day total - Y1.9b ($21.5m), 1.55m admissions
9day total - Y2,501,584,528 ($28.4m), 2m admissions
16day total - Y3,662,187,666 ($42.3m), 2.9m admissions
17day total - Y3.92b ($45.1m), 3,005,883 admissions
19day total - Y4.2b ($48.3m), 3.2m admissions
23day total - Y4,599,620,600 ($52.6m), 3,531,063 admissions
25day total - Y4.7b ($53.8m), 3.6m admissions
30day total - Y5,251,455,362 ($61.1m), 4m admissions
37day total - Y5,724,349,425 ($66.4m), 4.3m admissions
44day total - Y6,340,024,652 ($73.7m), 4.7m admissions
51day total - Y6,679,149,400 ($79.3m), 5.15m admissions
58day total - Y6,881,105,505 ($81.5m), 5,364,137 admissions
65day total - Y7,011,056,600 ($83.3m), 5,471,451 admissions
72day total - Y7,117,688,790 ($84.5m), 5.55m admissions
79day total - Y7,154,807,909 ($84.8m), 5.6m admissions
86day total - Y7,175,540,804 ($85.2m), 5.63m admissions
Final Total - Y7.31 billion ($88.45m), 5.7m admissions
Toy Story 3:
2day total - Y977,332,877 ($11.04m), 649,190 admissions
6day total - Y1.5b ($17.2m), 1m admissions
9day total - Y2,373,155,050 ($27.3m), 1.5m admissions
12day total - Y3b ($34.5m), 2m admissions
16day total - Y3.88b ($44.3m), 2.4m admissions
19day total - Y4,436,000,550 ($51m), 3,002,391 admissions
23day total - Y5,411,249,060 ($62.8m), 3.6m admissions
30day total - Y6,659,674,963 ($77.2m), 4.5m admissions
33day total - Y7.3b ($85.2m), 5m admissions
37day total - Y8,283,716,750 ($96.2m), 5,688,359 admissions
44day total - Y9,320,510,372 ($110.6m), 6.3m admissions
51day total - Y9,982,504,148 ($118.2m), 6,800,988 admissions
52day total - Y10,056,769,750 ($119.5m), 6,829,569m admissions
58day total - Y10,358,746,140 ($123m), 7m admissions
65day total - Y10,567,272,351 ($125.3m), 7.15m admissions
72day total - Y10,618,153,942 ($125.8m), 7.2m admissions
79day total - Y10,661,650,365 ($126.5m), 7.23m admissions
Final Total - Y10.8b ($130.68m), 7.3m admissions
The Borrower Arrietty:
2day total - Y895,561,635 ($10.35m), 680,234 admissions
3day total - Y1.35b ($15.6m), 1,038,138 admissions
9day total - Y2,617,702,260 ($29.9m), 2,062,166 admissions
16day total - Y3,978,417,127 ($46.2m), 3m admissions
18day total - Y4,215,660,000 ($49.3m), 3,462,883 admissions
20day total - Y4.5b ($52.4m), 3.7m admissions
23day total - Y5,018,507,263 ($58.3m), 4.1m admissions
30day total - Y6,465,551,370 ($75.1m), 5,341,467 admissions
37day total - Y7,391,062,220 ($87.8m), 6.1m admissions
44day total - Y8,033,861,171 ($95.1m), 6,754,168 admissions
51day total - Y8,427,779,555 ($100.1m), 7,086,428 admissions
58day total - Y8,648,923,170 ($102.9m), 7,219,659 admissions
65day total - Y8,807,591,800 ($104.3m), 7.325m admissions
72day total - Y8,984,134,955 ($106.7m), 7.45m admissions
Final Total - Y9.25b ($111.93m), 7.7m admissions
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Mon Jun 20, 2011 10:44 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6707
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Estimates Aren't you being too pessimistic about its drop when Potter opens. TS3 did well with 2 other big flicks( BS3 and BA). Plus there were multiple 40M+ grossers(inception plus some other local flick). So why do you think it will completely collapse with Potter opening in the market.
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The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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| Mon Jun 20, 2011 10:50 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 37162
Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Estimates I wish I wasn't being pessimistic because Pirates 4 has a chance at 10 billion yen if not for the July 16-17 weekend.
3D's History in the Market:
Avatar dropped 82% when Alice opened.
Alice dropped 86% when Toy Story 3 opened.
Toy Story 3 dropped 60% when Umizaru 3 opened.
Narnia 3 dropped 91% when Gulliver's Travels opened.
Gulliver's Travels dropped 75% when Pirates 4 opened.
Toy Story 3 had the best hold, but that's because Umizaru 3 wasn't released on nearly as many 3D screens as the Hollywood films receive.
There's unfortunately no way Pirates 4 can avoid a collapse. Having many big films released around the same time during the summer very rarely hurts anything, but it's the 3D screen loss that will kill Pirates. It's making 90% of it's gross in 3D.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Mon Jun 20, 2011 10:54 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6707
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Estimates OK. So the number of 3d screens have not increased to support more than one film. Plus what were the weekend grosses before the monster drops. Will pirates be at the high end or low end of those grosses.
_________________
The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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| Mon Jun 20, 2011 11:07 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 37162
Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Estimates I still think Pirates 4 will beat Harry Potter 7.2 in total gross though.
If you take Harry Potter 7's 5.5 million admissions, and apply 3D ticket prices, it would increase from 6.8 billion yen to about 8.3 billion yen. And Pirates 4 will likely finish between 9-9.5 billion yen.
This may be the first time a Potter film increases in admissions though being the final one, but for a franchise that loses 15/20% of it's audience with each installment, that won't be easy.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Mon Jun 20, 2011 11:10 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 37162
Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Estimates Keyser Söze wrote: OK. So the number of 3d screens have not increased to support more than one film. Plus what were the weekend grosses before the monster drops. Will pirates be at the high end or low end of those grosses. That statement isn't entirely true, but pretty much you're correct. The market can handle more than one 3D film, but not more than one major 3D release: *Resident Evil 4 opened with Toy Story 3 in the market, and did very well. Umizaru 3 opened the following weekend, and while Toy Story 3 took a hit, Resident Evil 4 was okay. But in Umizaru 3's case, being a local film, it wasn't released on nearly as many 3D screens. *Also, a Kamen Rider film was released last fall and performed well with Toy Story 3/Umizaru 3/Resident Evil 4. And the double feature of One Piece/Toriko 3D was fine with Narnia and Gulliver's Travels back in the Spring. It's the really big 3D films ($100 million films) that kill the other 3D film(s) in release (or same studio with Gulliver/Narnia). Thor is opening in a few weeks, and I'm unsure how it will affect Pirates. But given that superhero movies perform poorly in Japan (except Spider-Man), I doubt it's going to hurt Pirates. So we should see a case here of two 3D releases somewhat co-existing. Thor is in an awful spot, by the way, between Pirates and Potter. It'll surely have a sort run (even shorter) just like Gulliver's Travels. What is interesting, is Transformers 3 and Cars 2, both in 3D, open the same weekend a few weeks after Potter. Potter will have priority, but something will surely have to give here. Thor is going to be slaughtered. Back on topic, I've veered off completely, I figure Pirates 4 will make 150-200 million yen the weekend before Harry Potter opens. _________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Mon Jun 20, 2011 11:24 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 37162
Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); 2011 Charts Updated Top 10 Opening Weekends of 2011 by GrossUSD
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) - $14,795,098 (2-day) / $18,574,198 (3-day), 800 screens - $18,494 psa
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) - $11,230,161 (2-day) / $14,476,812 (3-day), 872 screens - $12,879 psa
3. Gantz Part I (Toho) - $7,291,734 (2-day), 410 screens - $17,785 psa
4. Gantz Part II: Perfect Answer (Toho) - $6,784,687 (2-day), 375 screens - $18,092 psa
5. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (Toho) $6,704,367 (2-day), 332 screens - $20,139 psa
6. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) - $6,401,968 (2-day) / $11,440,827 (5-day), 440 screens - $14,550 psa
7. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) - $5,596,686 (2-day) / $6,630,405 (3-day), 907 screens - $6,171 psa
8. Doraemon: Nobita and the Steel Troops: The New Age (Toho) - $5,445,080 (2-day), 368 screens - $14,769 psa
9. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (TOEI) - $4,418,878 (2-day), 274 screens - $16,127 psa
10. The Tourist (Sony) - $3,753,996 (2-day), 338 screens - $11,074 psa
YEN
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) - 1,209,024,468 (2-day) / 1,518,843,416 (3-day)
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) - 937,409,329 (2-day) / 1,176,047,329 (3-day)
3. Gantz Part I (Toho) - 592,823,905 (2-day)
4. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (Toho) - 555,151,131 (2-day)
5. Gantz Part II: Perfect Answer (Toho) - 551,160,812 (2-day)
6. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) - 528,215,385 (2-day) / 943,963,032 (5-day)
7. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) - 456,552,003 (2-day) / 540,659,903 (3-day)
8. Doraemon: Nobita and the Steel Troops: The New Age (Toho) - 446,318,074 (2-day)
9. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (TOEI) - 370,124,396 (2-day)
10. The Tourist (Sony) - 307,704,618 (2-day) 1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) - 773,184 (2-day) / 986,455 (3-day)
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) - 766,633 (2-day) / 961,035 (3-day)
3. Gantz Part I (Toho) - 454,220 (2-day)
4. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (Toho) - 453,618 (2-day)
5. Gantz Part II: Perfect Answer (Toho) - 423,675 (2-day)
6. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) - 412,129 (2-day) / 791,012 (5-day)
7. Doraemon: Nobita and the Steel Troops: The New Age (Toho) - 399,139 (2-day)
8. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (TOEI) - 325,667 (2-day)
9. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) - 312,850 (2-day) / 370,024 (3-day)
10. OOO, Den-O, All Riders: Let's Go Kamen Riders (TOEI) - 261,502 (2-day) / 360,065 (3-day) USD
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) - $88.79 million (5 weeks in release)
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (Warner Bros.) - $83 million
3. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) - $49.71 million
4. Gantz Part I (Toho) - $41.02 million
5. SP: The Motion Picture - Revolution (Toho) - $40.85 million
6. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (Toho) - $38.59 million (10 weeks in release)
7. Partners, The Movie 2 (TOEI) - $38.34 million
8. Gantz Part II: Perfect Answer (Toho) - $34.82 million (9 weeks in release)
9. Tangled (Walt Disney) - $31.23 million
10. The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) - $31.04 million
YEN
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) - 7.10 billion yen (5 weeks in release)
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (Warner Bros.) - 6.80 billion yen
3. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) - 4.04 billion yen
4. Gantz Part I (Toho) - 3.40 billion yen
5. SP: The Motion Picture - Revolution (Toho) - 3.31 billion yen
6. Partners, The Movie 2 (TOEI) - 3.14 billion yen
7. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (Toho) - 3.11 billion yen (10 weeks in release)
8. Gantz Part II: Perfect Answer (Toho) - 2.76 billion yen (9 weeks in release)
9. The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) - 2.61 billion yen
10. Tangled (Walt Disney) - 2.54 billion yen 1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) - 5.50 million
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) - 4.66 million (5 weeks in release)
3. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) - 3.24 million
4. Gantz Part I (Toho) - 2.74 million
5. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (Toho) - 2.62 million (10 weeks in release)
6. SP: The Motion Picture - Revolution (Toho) - 2.58 million
7. Partners, The Movie 2 (TOEI) - 2.46 million
8. Gantz Part II: Perfect Answer (Toho) - 2.20 million (9 weeks in release)
9. Doraemon: Nobita and the Steel Troops - The New Age (Toho) - 2.16 million
10. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) - 1.74 million Highlights: -Pirates 4 becomes the No.1 film of 2011 in Gross. -While not in the Top 10 on any charts, yet, Black Swan is only about 50,000 admissions from entering the Top 10 in Admissions. Black Swan has grossed 2,108,804,262 yen ($26.36 million) on 1.69 million admissions. There have been no new films debut in the Top 10 Opening Weekend of 2011 since Pirates back in May, but next weekend will see Andalusia: Goddess of Retribution and possibly Super 8 as new entries there. Weekend Actuals will be posted sometime tonight (surprisingly early this week).
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Mon Jun 20, 2011 3:17 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 37162
Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Actuals 2011 Box Office Year, so far,
[JAPANESE FILMS]
1. Space Battleship Yamato 4.04 billion yen
2. Gantz Part 1 3.40 billion yen
3. SP: The Motion Picture - Revolution 3.31 billion yen
4. Partners the Movie 2 3.14 billion yen
5. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence 3.11 billion yen*
6. Gantz Perfect Answer 2.76 billion yen*
7. Doraemon: Nobita and the New Steel Troops 2.45 billion yen
8. Inazuma Eleven 1.74 billion yen
9. Gaku 1.54 billion yen*
10. Miracle Man of the Pacific 1.50 billion yen
11. Abacus and Sword 1.42 billion yen
12. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Feat. Skull Movie Taisen Core 1.38 billion yen
13. Norwegian Wood 1.36 billion yen
14. Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider Den-O Let's Go All Kamen Riders 1.35 billion yen
15. Princess Toyotomi 1.28 billion yen*
16. 1,778 Stories of Me and My Wife 1.20 billion yen
17. Crayon Shin-chan: The Golden Spy Mission 1.17 billion yen
18. The Cicada's Eighth Day 1.16 billion yen*
19. Tomorrow's Joe 1.05 billion yen
20. Hankyu Densha 1.03 billion yen*
Total: 39.39 billion yen ($492.37 million)
[IMPORTED FILMS]
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 7.10 billion yen*
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 6.80 billion yen
3. The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader 2.61 billion yen
4. Tangled 2.54 billion yen
5. Black Swan 2.11 billion yen*
6. TRON: Legacy 2.08 billion yen
7. The Tourist 1.82 billion yen
8. The King's Speech 1.78 billion yen
9. Gulliver's Travels 1.54 billion yen
10. The Social Network 1.37 billion yen
11. Red 1.20 billion yen
12. Unstoppable 1.05 billion yen
Total: 32.00 billion yen ($398.67 million)
Only films that have grossed 1 billion yen or more are included.
*Still In Release
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Mon Jun 20, 2011 6:40 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 37162
Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Actuals June 18-19, 2011
Weekend Actuals
1 1 4億6707万5652円 ($5,838,446) -29.4% 71億0305万4855円 ($88,790,264) 800 5 ﾊﾟｲﾚｰﾂ･ｵﾌﾞ･ｶﾘﾋﾞｱﾝ 生命の泉 (Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides)
2 2 1億7844万3356円 ($2,230,541) -38.2% 5億3883万5450円 ($6,735,443) 283 2 ゴーカイジャー ゴセイジャー ～ (Gokaiger Goseiger Super Sentai 199 Hero Great Battle)
3 3 1億4289万5202円 ($1,786,190) -22.5% 8億8204万7816円 ($11,025,597) 304 3 パラダイス・キス (Paradise Kiss)
4 6 1億1123万3907円 ($1,390,424) -22.8% 4億3827万7444円 ($5,478,466) 317 2 星守る犬 (Hoshi Imaru Inu)
5 5 億9852万9151円 ($1,231,614) -33.4% 6億2380万8453円 ($7,797,606) 320 3 もし高校野球の女子マネージャー～ (What If a Female Manager?)
6 7 億9532万8508円 ($1,191,606) -32.4% 12億8157万5712円 ($16,019,696) 277 4 プリンセス トヨトミ (Princess Toyotomi)
7 4 億9501万9106円 ($1,187,734) -40.1% 4億1039万7850円 ($5,129,973) 522 2 Ｘ-ＭＥＮ：ファースト・ジェネレーション (X-Men: First Class)
8 -- 億8464万5400円 ($1,058,067) -**.*% 億8464万5400円 ($1,058,067) 140 1 スカイライン－征服－ (Skyline)
9 8 億8430万9358円 ($1,053,866) -32.0% 3億3705万0125円 ($4,213,137) 215 2 さや侍 (Samurai Sheath)
10 9 億5797万6924円 ($724,711) -29.0% 21億0880万4262円 ($26,362,705) 319 6 ブラック・スワン (Black Swan)
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Mon Jun 20, 2011 11:14 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Japan Box Office (2011); Weekend Actuals You still sure Black Swan is passing $30 million?
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Tue Jun 21, 2011 7:01 am |
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