Oscar nomination can boost its coming weekends at the Overseas markets. Though not substantial increase since it is already grossing tons of money . Still the new banners with most number of Oscar Nominations (I am expecting that ) with huge Oscar marketing will help a lot.

Interesting JC's BP GG speeches also specify that the best movie should be the one seen worldwide and that was a clear indication specially when he won BD he clapped for Katheryn Bigelow and said that she deserves it better. Also that he wants his actors and music to be recognized

Now cinedirectors no longer the only source for forecasts French box office! Here are my predictions (I play the French equivalent of the BOM derby for three years) on my site. This week, Avatar will lose its top spot because of The princess and the frog, but it will be very tight (with Océans too, a documentary)... Just for American readers and English, I stated the result in dollars (Variety uses a ticket to 8.8 dollars).

http://lestoilesheroiques.blogspot.com/2010/01/box-office-previsions-27-janvier-2.html

$1,336,042,345 Yesterday
$1,352,947,073 Thursday OS total

-----------------
$16,904,728 Thurs INT (+4.4% from yesterday)

I'm thinking at this stage now $1.7billion + $700mm = $2.4bn.

Nah, $2.5b is the minimum since last week...

It will be 1.43B-1.44B Overseas by this Sunday. I think 2B Overseas is highly probable right now. It still has 2-3 more strong weekends of 70-90M coming ahead. Also the weekdays are not slowing down which means 600M more is likely possible.

Last week (25Jan - 28Jan)
$16,824,376 - Monday
$15,961,064 - Tuesday
$16,196,083 - Wednesday
$16,904,728 - Thursday
------------------------
$65,886,251 - Total Weekdays

With an estimated 90M weekend it should be around 155.8M overseas this whole week.

There should be another 2-3 100M whole weeks given Oscar nominations and wins. That would definitely make it reach 2B overseas

EDIT : The weekday total is 65.8M lol

Domestic: $564,472,387 29.4%
+ Foreign: $1,352,947,073 70.6%
= Worldwide: $1,917,419,460

Arch, you are SEVERELY underestimating it again. There's no way, for instance, that it'll make "only" $700 million domestically. It'll likely pass $600 million before the next weekend and it is still making $30 million a weekend. The bottom domestic gross for it is $750 million.

Similar overseas...it's not making less than $1.8 billion. The very minimum for it worldwide is $2.55 billion at the moment.

Update Avatar's per capita performance. The film is doing amazing everywhere, basically (heh)

http://boxofficetracker.blogspot.com/20 ... er_30.html


WOW @ Australia. Insane number

Just goes to show how out of touch i am with box office at the momment, i'm sorry guys

Have been distracted lately, forgive me

Nice chart Box, Go Australia

TURKEY - Weekend 6

Turkey is one of those markets where locals still have the upperhand. Similar to India.

Though Avatar has become the first foreign release ever to cross $10m USD. It's been a fantastic year for foreign Bo in Turkey with the Ice Age 3, 2012 and Twilight all doing fantastically well.

Avatar has show great legs a should have enough in the tank for another $5-7m i think. This wekend was it's harshest drop yet thanks to 2 local blockbusters registering more than $1.3m on opening weekend.

1 - Avatar - $1,650,079 (or $1,613,474 3-Day - 183)
2 - Avatar - $4,246,843 ($1,576,820, -2.3%)
3 - Avatar - $6,589,058 ($1,506,463, -4.5%)
4 - Avatar - $8,969,218 ($1,376,883, -8.6%)
5 - Avatar - $11,070,685 ($1,270,801, -7.7%)

Recep Ivedik (2008) - $22,810,533 ($397,331, -43.2%)
Kurtlar Vadisi: Irak (Valley Of The Wolves: Iraq) - $20,216,173 ($268,438/ 357,559 YTL, -45%)
Recep Ivedik 2 (2009) - $19,522,488 ($109,361, -51.3%)
A.R.O.G (2008) - $19,037,325 ($189,843, -41.5%)
G.O.R.A. - $17,401,760 ($335,662, -47%)
Organize Isler - $12,606,401 ($266,487/ 352,962 YTL, -42%) - OUT
Avatar - $12,576,549 ($970,485, -23.6%)
Nefes (2009) - $12,417,564 ($298,706, -59%)
Kabadayi (2007) - $12,089,607 ($391,442, -16.5%)
Hababam Sinifi Askerde - $11,436,190 ($166,424, -58%)
Muro: Nalet Olsun Içimdeki Insan Aevgisine (2008) - $11,390,301 ($89,945, -57.8%)
Günesi Gördüm (2009) - $11,367,756 ($419,478, +40.6%)
Vizontele Tuuba - $11,089,933 ($213,049, -45%)
Hababam Sinifi 3.5 - $9,706,707 ($67,819/ 89,351 R, -73%) - OUT
Beyaz Melek (2007) - $9,436,797 ($1,038,115, +120.7%)
Babam Ve Oglum - $8,627,610 ($763,517/ 1,029,985 YTL, -37%)
Hokkabaz - $8,588,759 ($219,283, -32.9%) - OUT
2012 - $8,498,864 ($188,892, -43.7%)
Issiz Adam (2008) - $7,458,692 ($605,154, +44.7%)
Osmanli Cumhuriyeti (2008) - $7,301,284 ($23,052, -86.9%)
The Twilight Saga: New Moon - $6,915,149 ($109,613, -52.5%)
Asmali Konak Hayat - $6,548,010 ($45,694, -59%)
Neseli Hayat (2009) - $6,344,095 ($119,760, -63.6%)
Ice Age 3: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs - $6,229,651 ($180,623, -37.5%)

Amazing.. Go Australia!!!!!!!




and Korea too

GERMANY - Weekeend 6

Overtakes ROTK for the first time in USD$ with a mammoth hold. It hasn't dropped below $9m per weekend yet.

1 - Avatar - $13,340,780 (€8.8m - 1128 TC/350 3D)
2 - Avatar - $34,197,621 ($12,945,116, -3%)
3 - Avatar - $53,890,038 ($10,770,723, -16.8%)
4 - Avatar - $70,465,941 ($9,414,261, -12.6%)
5 - Avatar - $82,420,632 ($9,091,813, -3.4%)

Avatar - $94,472,344 ($9,085,222, -0.1%)
Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - $85,148,354 ($1,837,477/ €1,447,932/ 201,657 adms., -46%)
Ice Age 3: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs - $72,164,823 ($2,152,002, -41%)
Lord Of The Rings: FOTR - $61,470,000 (€68,875,912 - $2,480,000, -34%)
Harry Potter 6: HBP - $60,979,649 ($1,111,882, -37%)
Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - $58,471,400 ($993,412/ €771,166/ 133,381 adms., +3%)
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $58,339,030 ($1,328,191, -42.5%)
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: Dead Man’s Chest - $58,089,464 ($1,338,933, -42.6%)
Harry Potter 4: GOF - $55,377,535 ($1,056,641/ €890,706/ 129,947 adms., -49%)
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World’s End - $54,836,617 ($1,366,233, -32.6%)
Sieben Zwerge - Männer Allein Im Wald (7 Dwarfs) - $46,488,218 ($1,502,543/ 1,123,737/ 191,702 adms., -37%) or $43,853,938 ($1,486,353, -39%) Actuals
Harry Potter 3: POA - $44.3m (5.969.017 adms. - $1.4m/ 182.678 adms., -24%)
The Da Vinci Code - $43,947,445 ($624,322/ €498,821/ 70,088 adms., -53%)
James Bond: Casino Royale - $43,227,248 ($2,527,556, +43.3%)
Ratatouille - $43,107,253 ($1,871,779, -51.2%)
Star Wars 3: ROTS - $42,975,576 ($652,110, -39.7%)
Madagascar 2: Escape 2 Africa - $42,602,450 ($1,344,550, -55.4%)
Angels & Demons - $42,241,730 ($1,528,962, -44%)

Probably has enough in the tank for another $40m-50m or so for a gross north of $140m. Gargantuan. Already holds down the #2 spot on the all-time's list, shouldn't have any issues surpassing Titanic here.

1) Titanic - $129,974,110
2) Avatar - $94,472,344 (6)
3) Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - $90,200,000
4) Ice Age 3: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs - $82,199,367
5) Lord Of The Rings: TTT - $78,664,632
6) Lord Of The Rings: FOTR - $78,561,249
7) Keinohrhasen (2007) - $74,002,437
8) Independence Day - $71,903,025
9) Harry Potter 1: PS - $67,802,864
10) Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $65,901,311

Harry Potter 6: HBP - $64,709,316
Der Schuh Des Manitu - $64,221,213
Harry Potter 4: GOF - $63,464,106
(T)Raumschiff Surprise: Periode 1 - $62,059,389
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: Dead Man’s Chest - $61,389,002

===

SPAIN - Weekeend 6

Dips just below $6m for the first time though is stabilising quite well and should have enough for another $30m or so if it continues to hold like this. $100m looks very likely now

1 - Avatar - $10,989,711 (€7.4m - 789 TC/225 3D)
2 - Avatar - $29,154,824 ($12,667,033, +15.3%)
3 - Avatar - $44,390,111 ($9,649,320, -23.8%)
4 - Avatar - $57,818,985 ($6,704,235, -30.5%)
5 - Avatar - $66,657,075 ($6,249,331, -6.8%)

Avatar - $73,949,766 ($5,648,045, -9.6%)
Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - $36,817,850 (€30,454,015/6.282.269 adms. - €616,370/122.412 adms., -41%)
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: Dead Man’s Chest - $35,449,010 ($499,400, -36%)
Up - $32,126,814 ($1,143,801)
El Orfanato (The Orphanage) (2007) - $31,246,562 ($1,512,851, -36.4%)
The Da Vinci Code - $30,752,907 ($749,947/ €599,193/ 107,020 adms., -38%)
Shrek 2 - $30,026,448 ($1,051,855)
Lord Of The Rings: TTT - $29.915m (€27,635,674 - 5,935,524 adms. - $0.91m/ €841,195, -31.4%)
The Twilight Saga: New Moon - $29,763,356 ($288,452, -30%)
Indiana Jones: The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull - $29,439,447 ($628,155, -21.7%)
Ice Age 3: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs - $28,975,909 ($399,292, -47.1%)
Shrek 3 - $28,923,656 ($502,823, -55.1%)
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World’s End - $28,736,020 ($567,042, -18.7%)
Agora (Mists of Time) (2009) - $28,728,059 ($1,014,311, -40%)
Hancock - $25,498,397 ($290,483, -59.4%)
The Simpsons Movie - $24,538,175 ($133,638, -62%) - OUT
Spiderman 3 - $24,209,035 ($308,561, -53.5%)
Lord Of The Rings: FOTR - $23.9m (€26,713,740 - $970,000/ €1,083,000, -25.4%)
Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - $23,404,313 ($474,562/ €372,555/ 69,333, -42%)
The Incredibles - $23,010,586 ($1,236,725, -8.6%)
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $22,907,516 ($185,463, -49.4%)
Finding Nemo - €22,393,808 (4,660,705 adms. - €1,392,071, -31.9%)
Harry Potter 4: GOF - $22,110,463 ($358,165/ 303,631/ 57,839 adms., -21%)*New Years
2012 - $21,890,384 ($352,796, -55.4%)

Already claims the all-time record ages ago.

1) Avatar - $73,949,766 (6)
1) Titanic - $44,103,989
2) Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - $40,980,000
3) The Orphanage - $37,725,830
4) Up - $37,052,520
5) Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: Dead Man’s Chest - $36,609,592
6) Shrek 2 - $34,952,797
7) The Da Vinci Code - $34,543,406
8) Indiana Jones: Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull - $32,751,799
9) Ice Age 3: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs - $32,142,485
10) Lord Of The Rings: TTT - $31,939,619

Agora (Mists Of Time) (2009) - $31,567,295
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World’s End - $31,487,539
Shrek 3 - $30,413,846
Finding Nemo - $29,820,000
The Twilight Saga: New Moon - $28,755,852

SOUTH KOREA - Weekend 6

Closes in on last year's largest release Haeundae and should surpass it before the end. It's also the first foreign release to smash past 10m admissions and is in elite company that only 6 movies share.

1 - Avatar - 1,665,558 adms. (1,388,797 adms. 3-Day) - 991
2 - Avatar - 4,201,699 adms. (1,579,028 adms. 3-Day) - 838
3 - Avatar - 6,623,820 adms. (1,481,638 adms. 3-Day) - 725
4 - Avatar - 8,049,422 adms. (840,111 adms. 3-Day) - 665
5 - Avatar - 9,254,401 adms. (722,779 adms. 3-Day) - 579

The Host - 12,511,500 adms. (72,900 2-Day Seoul) – 308
Haeundae (2009) - 10,652,407 adms. (379,867 adms. 3-Day) - 438
Avatar - 10,292,937 adms. (640,327 adms. 3-Day) - 526
The King And The Clown - 10,266,199 adms. (285)
Taegukgi - 10,063,861 adms. (92,773 adms. 2-Day Seoul)
Silmido - 8,576,000 adms. (115,300 adms. 2-Day Seoul)
D- War - 8,386,259 adms. (2,042 adms. 3-ady Seoul) - 64
Transformers 2: Revenge Of The Fallen - 7,401,570 adms. (33,573 adms. 3-Day) - 190
Hwa Lya Hyuga (May 18) (2007) - 7,190,000 adms. (31,000 adms. 3-Day Seoul) - 234
Transformers - 7,163,000 adms. (31,000 adms. 3-Day Seoul) - 167
Take Off (2009) - 6,965,612 adms. (426,879 adms. 3-Day) - 505
Welcome To Dongmakgol - 6,732,000 adms.
The Good, The Bad, The Weird (2008) - 6,712,000 adms. (29,000 adms. 3-Day Seoul) - 208
Tazza: The High Rollers (War Of Flowers) - 6,509,000 adms. (53,000 adms. 3-Day Seoul) - 236
My Boss, My Teacher - 6,080,000 adms. (61) - OUT
Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - 5,960,000 adms. (15,000 adms. 2-Day Seoul) - OUT
Friend - 5,898,000 adms. (101,850 adms. 2-Day Seoul)
Speed Scandal (2008) - 5,837,552 adms. (417,726 adms. 3-Day) - 405
200 Pound Beauty - 5,718,700 adms. (101,400 adms. 3-Day Seoul) - 262
Mission Impossible 3 - 5,584,000 adms. (45,000 adms. 3-Day Seoul) - 211
Marrying The Mafia 2 - 5,500,000 adms.
2012 - 5,329,456 adms. (87,345 adms. 3-Day) - 329

The Host's total looks slightly out of reach though I think it should land somewhere around 11.5-12m by the end. So positions #3 and #4 are up for the taking.

The Host (2006) – 13,019,740 adms. (US$90m) (Seoul = 3,571,254 adms.)
The King And The Clown (2005) – 12,302,831 adms. ($84m) (Seoul = 3,667,849 adms.)
Taegugki (2004) – 11,746,135 adms. (US$64.8m) (Seoul = 3,509,563 adms.)
Haeundae (2009) - 11,397,097 adms.
Silmido (2003) – 11,108,000 adms. ($60.1m) (Seoul = 3,262,000 adms.)
Avatar - 10,292,937 adms. (6)
Take Off (2009) - 8,443,898 adms.
D-War (2007) - 8,426,973 adms. (Seoul = 2,098,438 adms.)
Speed Scandal (2008) - 8,280,308 adms.
Friend (2001) - 8,134,500 adms. ($38m) (Seoul = 2,579,950 adms.)
Welcome To Dongmakgol (2005) – 8,008,622 adms. (Seoul = 2,435,088 adms.)

Why is this film making so much money? WHY?


I've seen this bloody film, and it makes NO sense.

Nah you are doing great Arch and thanks for all the updates of overseas total.

I am getting all my up-to-date information from your amazing charts

BTW look who is out of touch from his maths The weekday total is 68.4m and not 49.6m

It makes perfect sense...

All I can think of is
1. A really good marketing
2. Good WOM
and the best ......



3. Titanic-James Cameron effect

Thanks, Arch!

Maybe it's a little bit early to say but, I think Avatar has a slight chance now to beat 'The Host'.
Unless it loses a lot of screens until upcoming the Lunar New Year weekend which runs from Feb. 13 to 15, It should be #2 by the end of the weekend.
There have always been lots of movigoers on that holiday.

and 3D effect as well........

It makes half sense to me

I trust you more since you have more intimate knowledge of what's coming up

Maybe because people like the movie and want to see it many times? Similar situation happend with Titanic...