You're right.

At least, this is what's "expected" right now. Its fourth weekend will probably come in somewhere around Frozen 2's opening weekend (maybe a bit less), therefore they should be somewhat comparable from this point on since their release dates are also comparable (not exactly, but for the most part by opening in the off season).

Saturday's pre-sales later this evening will give us a better idea of what will happen this weekend. Frozen 2 had 170,000 Saturday pre-sales ahead of its first Saturday. Demon Slayer had 257,000 last Saturday in pre-sales, so pre-sales can decline about 35%to match Frozen 2's opening pre-sales.

Pre-sale to pre-sale isn't always a reliable predictor of things, but it helps get an idea of an average within a range. We'll know later today.

No problem Corpse, you're the one doing all the work here, we're just helping when we can^^.
Thanks a lot, Rouk', I'll add these records in a few minutes. Don't worry, you posted while I edited my message, I indeed forgot about the October sales for Demon Slayer.

Welcome to the forum!

All the sales for this series are ridiculous, unprecedented and then some records, but those October 2020 sales are truly insane. Last month alone was higher than, I think, correct me if I'm wrong, the YEARLY sales for any other series besides various One Piece years and one or two years of Attack on Titan (2013-2015 range) since Oricon began the charts, isn't it?

October 2020's sales were nearly on par with 2019's YEARLY sales for the series (which topped 2019)...

Thanks !

Yeah. Here are the years where a manga sold > 10m (Kimetsu 2020 not in because the year isn't over)

1. One Piece (2011) - 37,996,373
2. One Piece (2010) - 32,343,809
3. One Piece (2012) - 23,464,866
4. One Piece (2013) - 18,151,599
5. Attack on Titan (2013) - 15,933,801
6. One Piece (2009) - 14,721,241
7. One Piece (2015) - 14,102,521
8. One Piece (2016) - 12,314,326
9. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba (2019) - 12,057,628
10. One Piece (2014) - 11,885,957
11. Attack on Titan (2014) - 11,728,368
12. One Piece (2017) - 11,495,532
13. Seven Deadly Sins (2015) - 10,304,112
14. One Piece (2019) - 10,134,232

So Seven Deadly Sins isn't far, but it's still below.

Forgot I made the list earlier this year in the Spring/Summer when theaters closed for a bit:

EDIT: Thanks for replying anyway.

Best Yearly Selling Manga by Series (5 Million+ Physical Copies): 2008-Present

78,038,011 - Demon Slayer (Shueisha/Koyoharu Gotouge) [2020] *As Of Week 49/52*
37,996,373 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2011]
32,373,809 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2010]
23,464,866 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2012]
_________
18,151,599 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2013]
15,933,801 - Attack on Titan (Kodansha/Hajime Isayama) [2013]
14,721,241 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2009]
14,102,521 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2015]
12,314,326 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2016]
12,057,628 - Demon Slayer (Shueisha/Koyoharu Gotouge) [2019]
11,885,957 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2014]
11,728,368 - Attack on Titan (Kodansha/Hajime Isayama) [2014]
--11,571,206 - Demon Slayer (Shueisha/Koyoharu Gotouge) [OCTOBER 2020 ONLY!]
11,495,532 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2017]
10,304,112 - The Seven Deadly Sins (Kodansha/Nakaba Suzuki) [2015]
10,134,232 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2019]
_________
8,778,048 - Attack on Titan (Kodansha/Hajime Isayama) [2015]
8,746,081 - Kuroko's Basketball (Shueisha/Tadatoshi Fujimaki) [2013]
8,605,861 - Assassination Classroom (Shueisha/Yusei Matsui) [2015]
8,569,215 - Kingdom (Shueisha/Yasuhisa Hara) [2015]
8,283,709 - Haikyuu!! (Shueisha/Haruichi Furudate) [2014]
8,113,317 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2018]
8,070,446 - Kuroko's Basketball (Shueisha/Tadatoshi Fujimaki) [2012]
7,661,361 - Kingdom (Shueisha/Yasuhisa Hara) [2019]
7,434,745 - The Promised Neverland (Shueisha/Kaiu Shirai) [2019]
7,409,068 - Naruto (Shueisha/Masashi Kisimoto) [2010]
7,151,001 - Magi (Shogakukan/Shinobu Ohtaka) [2013]
_________
6,946,003 - Tokyo Ghoul (Shueisha/Sui Ishida) [2014]
6,887,192 - Assassination Classroom (Shueisha/Yusei Matsui) [2016]
6,874,840 - Naruto (Shueisha/Masashi Kisimoto) [2011]
6,836,494 - Naruto (Shueisha/Masashi Kisimoto) [2009]
6,729,439 - Kuroko's Basketball (Shueisha/Tadatoshi Fujimaki) [2014]
6,718,185 - My Hero Academia (Shueisha/Kohei Horikoshi) [2018]
6,662,781 - Attack on Titan (Kodansha/Hajime Isayama) [2017]
6,595,968 - Kingdom (Shueisha/Yasuhisa Hara) [2016]
6,572,813 - Kimi ni Todoke (Shueisha/Karuho Shiina) [2010]
6,544,081 - Attack on Titan (Kodansha/Hajime Isayama) [2016]
6,495,240 - Naruto (Shueisha/Masashi Kisimoto) [2012]
6,474,394 - Haikyuu!! (Shueisha/Haruichi Furudate) [2016]
6,474,021 - Bleach (Shueisha/Tite Kubo) [2009]
6,351,508 - Haikyuu!! (Shueisha/Haruichi Furudate) [2015]
6,184,214 - Kingdom (Shueisha/Yasuhisa Hara) [2017]
5,956,540 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2008]
5,895,000 - The Quintessential Quintuplets (Kodansha/Negi Haruba) [2019]
5,852,310 - My Hero Academia (Shueisha/Kohei Horikoshi) [2017]
5,810,522 - Fullmetal Alchemist (Square Enix/Hiromu Arakawa) [2009]
5,739,526 - Fairy Tail (Kodansha/Hiro Mashima) [2010]
5,553,933 - Naruto (Shueisha/Masashi Kisimoto) [2013]
5,505,179 - Naruto (Shueisha/Masashi Kisimoto) [2014]
5,413,899 - Space Brothers (Kodansha/Chuya Koyama) [2012]
5,303,514 - Tokyo Ghoul:re (Shueisha/Sui Ishida) [2017]
5,235,963 - Attack on Titan (Kodansha/Hajime Isayama) [2018]
5,223,712 - Blue Exorcist (Shueisha/Kazue Kato) [2011]
5,214,085 - Slam Dunk (Shueisha/Takehiko Inoue) [2018]
5,204,193 - Bleach (Shueisha/Tite Kubo) [2010]
5,165,052 - Fullmetal Alchemist (Square Enix/Hiromu Arakawa) [2010]
5,115,373 - The Seven Deadly Sins (Kodansha/Nakaba Suzuki) [2016]
5,114,916 - My Hero Academia (Shueisha/Kohei Horikoshi) [2016]
5,067,939 - Haikyuu!! (Shueisha/Haruichi Furudate) [2017]
5,047,574 - My Hero Academia (Shueisha/Kohei Horioshi) [2019]
5,030,624 - Haikyuu!! (Shueisha/Haruichi Furudate) [2018]

Note: I did not add any other series to this list from this year. Just Demon Slayer. 2020 sales for One Piece, Kingdom, My Hero Academia, Haikyuu!!, The Promised Neverland, and probably Spy x Family are already over 5 million or will be for the year.

If someone knows the 2020 sales for these other series', share and I'll update the list.

Sure. Estimates are with an *, the others are confirmed numbers with 2 weeks to go.
Kingdom - 8,090,608
One Piece - 7,665,000*
Haikyu!! - 6,293,442
The Promised Neverland - 6,030,000*
The Quintessential Quintuplets - 6,020,000*
My Hero Academia - 5,870,000*
Jujutsu Kaisen - 5,190,000*

Spy x Family is "only" at 4,414,014 and should end the year at 4,500,000.
If Jujutsu Kaisen keeps up the good sales it's had for the past couple weeks, it should end up above HeroAca with 6,000,000 units or so.

Thank you very much. I'll add them to the list and repost. And thanks for saying there are 2 weeks, not 3 weeks, left in the Oricon year. I knew it wasn't exactly known a few weeks ago if it was going to be cut a week short or something.

It's too bad Oda is having such difficulty with both his health and troubling readjusting his work schedule (analog vs digital due to COVID). One Piece only got 3 volumes out this year again (like 2018) as a result. Of course, he needs to stop pushing himself so much before the worse happens. He's carried Shueisha and the manga industry for so long, I don't think anyone in the publishing company or industry would mind if he slows it down a bit. But he seems dead-set on getting to chapter 1,000 before 2021.

It's not really a week short. The year started with Week 47, 2019 (Nov. 18th). Ending on Week 46 2020 (Nov. 15th) will put it at 52 weeks.
(So the numbers are for 50 weeks out of 52)
2021 should be a 53 weeks year for Oricon though.

Got you.

Best Yearly Selling Manga by Series (5 Million+ Physical Copies): 2008-Present

78,038,011 - Demon Slayer (Shueisha/Koyoharu Gotouge) [2020] *As Of Week 50/52*
37,996,373 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2011]
32,373,809 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2010]
23,464,866 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2012]
_________
18,151,599 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2013]
15,933,801 - Attack on Titan (Kodansha/Hajime Isayama) [2013]
14,721,241 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2009]
14,102,521 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2015]
12,314,326 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2016]
12,057,628 - Demon Slayer (Shueisha/Koyoharu Gotouge) [2019]
11,885,957 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2014]
11,728,368 - Attack on Titan (Kodansha/Hajime Isayama) [2014]
11,495,532 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2017]
10,304,112 - The Seven Deadly Sins (Kodansha/Nakaba Suzuki) [2015]
10,134,232 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2019]
_________
8,778,048 - Attack on Titan (Kodansha/Hajime Isayama) [2015]
8,746,081 - Kuroko's Basketball (Shueisha/Tadatoshi Fujimaki) [2013]
8,605,861 - Assassination Classroom (Shueisha/Yusei Matsui) [2015]
8,569,215 - Kingdom (Shueisha/Yasuhisa Hara) [2015]
8,283,709 - Haikyu!! (Shueisha/Haruichi Furudate) [2014]
8,113,317 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2018]
8,090,608 - Kingdom (Shueisha/Yasuhisa Hara) [2020] *As Of Week 50/52*
8,070,446 - Kuroko's Basketball (Shueisha/Tadatoshi Fujimaki) [2012]
7,665,000 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2020] *EST. As Of Week 50/52*
7,661,361 - Kingdom (Shueisha/Yasuhisa Hara) [2019]
7,434,745 - The Promised Neverland (Shueisha/Kaiu Shirai) [2019]
7,409,068 - Naruto (Shueisha/Masashi Kisimoto) [2010]
7,151,001 - Magi (Shogakukan/Shinobu Ohtaka) [2013]
_________
6,946,003 - Tokyo Ghoul (Shueisha/Sui Ishida) [2014]
6,887,192 - Assassination Classroom (Shueisha/Yusei Matsui) [2016]
6,874,840 - Naruto (Shueisha/Masashi Kisimoto) [2011]
6,836,494 - Naruto (Shueisha/Masashi Kisimoto) [2009]
6,729,439 - Kuroko's Basketball (Shueisha/Tadatoshi Fujimaki) [2014]
6,718,185 - My Hero Academia (Shueisha/Kohei Horikoshi) [2018]
6,662,781 - Attack on Titan (Kodansha/Hajime Isayama) [2017]
6,595,968 - Kingdom (Shueisha/Yasuhisa Hara) [2016]
6,572,813 - Kimi ni Todoke (Shueisha/Karuho Shiina) [2010]
6,544,081 - Attack on Titan (Kodansha/Hajime Isayama) [2016]
6,495,240 - Naruto (Shueisha/Masashi Kisimoto) [2012]
6,474,394 - Haikyu!! (Shueisha/Haruichi Furudate) [2016]
6,474,021 - Bleach (Shueisha/Tite Kubo) [2009]
6,351,508 - Haikyu!! (Shueisha/Haruichi Furudate) [2015]
6,293,442 - Haikyu!! (Shueisha/Haruishi Furudate) [2020] *As Of Week 50/52*
6,184,214 - Kingdom (Shueisha/Yasuhisa Hara) [2017]
6,030,000 - The Promised Neverland (Shueisha/Kaiu Shirai) [2020] *EST. As Of Week 50/52*
6,020,000 - The Quintessential Quintuplets (Kodansha/Negi Haruba) [2020] *EST. As Of Week 50/52*
5,956,540 - One Piece (Shueisha/Eiichiro Oda) [2008]
5,895,000 - The Quintessential Quintuplets (Kodansha/Negi Haruba) [2019]
5,870,000 - My Hero Academia (Shueisha/Kohei Horikoshi) [2020] *EST. As Of Week 50/52*
5,852,310 - My Hero Academia (Shueisha/Kohei Horikoshi) [2017]
5,810,522 - Fullmetal Alchemist (Square Enix/Hiromu Arakawa) [2009]
5,739,526 - Fairy Tail (Kodansha/Hiro Mashima) [2010]
5,553,933 - Naruto (Shueisha/Masashi Kisimoto) [2013]
5,505,179 - Naruto (Shueisha/Masashi Kisimoto) [2014]
5,413,899 - Space Brothers (Kodansha/Chuya Koyama) [2012]
5,303,514 - Tokyo Ghoul:re (Shueisha/Sui Ishida) [2017]
5,235,963 - Attack on Titan (Kodansha/Hajime Isayama) [2018]
5,223,712 - Blue Exorcist (Shueisha/Kazue Kato) [2011]
5,214,085 - Slam Dunk (Shueisha/Takehiko Inoue) [2018]
5,204,193 - Bleach (Shueisha/Tite Kubo) [2010]
5,190,000 - Jujutsu Kaisen (Shueisha/Gege Akutami) [2020] *EST. As Of Week 50/52*
5,165,052 - Fullmetal Alchemist (Square Enix/Hiromu Arakawa) [2010]
5,115,373 - The Seven Deadly Sins (Kodansha/Nakaba Suzuki) [2016]
5,114,916 - My Hero Academia (Shueisha/Kohei Horikoshi) [2016]
5,067,939 - Haikyu!! (Shueisha/Haruichi Furudate) [2017]
5,047,574 - My Hero Academia (Shueisha/Kohei Horioshi) [2019]
5,030,624 - Haikyu!! (Shueisha/Haruichi Furudate) [2018]

VERY good year for manga sales, even excluding Demon Slayer, really. And this is physical copies only, so accounting for the increasing digital sales, these are even more impressive with 2 weeks left.

Hey, sorry, I messed up, the first week record has not fallen yet. It's still held by One Piece 66 with 2,275,453 in 5 days.
Though arguably, it's not wrong to say so, because 2,204,279 in 3 days is better than 2,275,453 in 5.

Rest is still correct though, except that the record in week 2 is held by One Piece 76 (With 954,354 units sold), though 67's is also above Demon Slayer's best second week.

It's basically guaranteed to get best first week with its final volume though, but OP might still keep best second week. (Will be one of the few records that OP will still have, lol)

The parallels between Kimetsu no Yaiba's (Demon Slayer's) performance at the box office and in manga sales are pretty similar.

For ages, Spirited Away by Hayao Miyazaki (sort of taking the torch in the movie industry from Akira Kurosawa) had held so many records that were never really challenged, yet Demon Slayer comes out of nowhere and has blown it out of the water so far.

And for ages, One Piece by Eiichiro Oda (sort of taking the torch in the manga industry from Akira Toriyama) had held so many records that were never really challenged, yet Demon Slayer comes out of nowhere and blows it out of the water so far.

And... it's by an author/creator who's identity is unknown and "official" photo is a cartoon crocodile they've drawn.

2020 is really one hell of a year for the Japanese entertainment market. Animal Crossing basically did the same thing with video games.
"Pokémon Red/Green/Blue are untouchable, no game will ever sell as much as these did". But now it's looking extremely likely that New Horizons will beat the three of them combined (Blue was released 6 months later) in just a year.

I really wonder how the Demon Slayer game will do. It doesn't have a date, and is only announced for PS4, which doesn't have great software sales/momentum unlike the switch, so I don't see it do as well as it should/could.

If they change their mind and announce it on Switch though, now things could be really interesting.

Isn't there also a mobile game in the works? That'd be more likely to break all sorts of sales (download numbers, but especially earnings) records.

Not saying the console game won't do well, but the video game market is generally very difficult to find significant success from entering it from the outside. A very successful game typically needs to originate as a game (or have little presence elsewhere). And if it's not released on the Switch, that'd spoil any possibility of big success.

And yeah, regarding Animal Crossing: New Horizons, it is likely to become the best-selling video game ever in the market. Almost 6 million physical copies sold as of last week, on track to reach that milestone by the end of November I figure, or at least in early December. I don't know the total with digital sales included, but just using the average share most games get (and it may be higher this year due to COVID), it's very likely near or above 8 million in total right now. So over 10 million appears almost assured since the Switch also continues to do well, and 55/60% of Switch owners have bought/download it.

A lot of long-standing, almost thought impossible records being broken across various industries in 2020 in Japan, and COVID, ironically, can be linked to HELPING this happen.

I think Demon Slayer should still exceed Spirited Away's ¥31,66 billion and $257M, but is it still possible for demon slayer to exceed Spirited Away's 24.3 million admissions ?

And some days ago some people said the Demon Slayer final box office should be between $330M-$450M, is it still possible for demon slayer just to exceed $300M ?

I think people overestimate movies that start with big weekends, last year when we saw the opening weekend of frozen 2, some people said it was going to go over $ 200M and in the end it just makes a little more than half. Today I have the impression that it is the same thing for Demon Slayer, some immediately said that he would make more than 350 million (it is already huge of course I am aware of it), but we realizes that it may not even exceed $300M.

For me the most impressive films are those which remain stable for long weeks and which have incredible legs like Titanic, Your name or Spirited Away and not those which start with big weekends but which do not last over time.

Presales for Saturday: 164961 (-35.9%). I think it should make something around Frozen 2's first Saturday.

Highest Saturday Pre-Sales (2014-) [~50% of Market]

495,308 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *1st Saturday*
404,653 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *2nd Saturday*
260,329 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
257,536 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *3rd Saturday*
170,054 - Frozen II (2019) *1st Saturday*
164,961 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *4th Saturday*
138,795 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
134,399 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
133,265 - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019)
126,032 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
117,302 - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
116,563 - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
114,570 - One Piece Film Gold (2016)
113,434 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
106,945 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
103,969 - Frozen II (2019) *2nd Saturday*
x94,641 - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
x93,216 - Beauty and the Beast (2017) *1st Saturday*
x92,166 - Avengers: Endgame (2019)
x91,384 - Weathering With You (2019)
x88,838 - Toy Story 4 (2019)
x85,557 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
x84,025 - Aladdin (2019)
x78,000 - Beauty and the Beast (2017) *2nd Saturday*

Pretty much inline with what I was expecting, down about 35% versus last Saturday's pre-sales. Now, that *should* improve for the day. It's not always true, but until later in a film's run, the Saturday pre-sales usually indicate a drop 5-10% worse than what the day ends up being. Not predicting this, but it would be a sign that it's stabilized now.

Sunday will ultimately determine where the weekend ends up since last weekend's Sunday was a discount day, but if Saturday can manage a 30/35% drop versus last Saturday, it's in good shape. The goal will be 400,000+ at the usual locations today.

Weekend Prediction coming up later.

Its average ticket price is only a tad higher than Spirited Away, so if it beats in in gross, then it beats it in admissions too unless it's a very close race at the end.

Ultimately, no one really knows. It's not locked to beat Spirited Away, but it's very likely. If this weekend comes in 35% or better, we can probably safely predict it will. $350 million will be tough, though $300 million remains likely as that's where beating Spirited Away puts it.

I agree that films that have long legs are impressive, however, Demon Slayer is still aiming for a multiplier of 10. That's not comparable to the leggiest films that can get 20+, but it's extraordinarily impressive given the opening--an opening that broke the opening weekend record by over ¥1 billion and 1 million admissions.

This is also the off-season. A multiplier of 10, or at least near 10, is hugely impressive for an October release given it only has TWO holidays (Nov. 3rd and 23rd) before January.

Thank you so much again Iscariote Ruok' and Corpse for all your research and compilations!!

Yeah that doesn't look close to normality yet and it will see its highest drop this weekend

Do you think that after this weekend, Demon Slayer could be maintained with slight drops or even increases from week to week? Or will it continue to drop around 20-30%?

The total has and will always look ridiculous compared to every other film (because it'll have already outgrossed ALL but four films ever after this weekend...) when I post these each week, but the weekend grosses should start to be similar and comparable in the sixth or seventh weekend lists and onward.

If it begins to develop small drops or increases next week with numbers this high (unprecedented numbers), then you're definitely talking $400 million+ because it'll end up doubling its four week total like the other films on the list that started to have small drops/increases for weeks after their fourth weekends. I'd expect 30ish% drops to be normal for most of its run outside of holidays (next one is Nov. 23rd), but it will have a TWO week New Year which has never happened before. It'll likely be the #1 film of all-time by that point though, so any amazing holds or increases in its first actual holiday period is just going to be used to see how high it can go so that nothing can ever touch it.

I think the problem here is perspective. This film just can't be compared to anything. It's not just a film that had a record opening and is doing big numbers for awhile but ends up with a similar total as other top films in the market. It's so far ahead it's incomparable. Its numbers are so high, and so far ahead of everything, it's like trying to compare two films from different sized markets to one another.

Just because it has a 30% drop on a weekend when other films had a 10% doesn't mean anything, good or bad, because it's already outgrossed all but four films ever after this Sunday and is posting dailies in its fourth week that are higher than those during the first week of other films.

Last Sat the presale drop was 38%, and the actual gross of Sat drop was around 20% ??

Yes. Usually the pre-sale drop is higher than what the daily drop actually will be, especially in the first couple weeks of a film's run as pre-sales represent a higher share of the daily ticket sales for awhile. This eventually stabilizes in a film's run where the pre-sale drop is fairly accurate (not usually off by more than +/- 5% or so).

Don't expect today to be that extreme though and that 36% drop suddenly become a sub-20% drop for the actual day. Not saying it can't happen, and I don't know if it's stabilized yet, it's getting close, but today should still probably be a bit better than the 36% drop in pre-sales versus last Saturday. Let's aim for ~30%.