Yeah, I think it will beat Shrek. Shrek skews younger, so even with 3D, the average ticket price will be less than Tron's average. However, Shrek may win in admissions this weekend.

I have to check for updates now that I'm home.

Saturday Results:

TRON: Legacy - 19.7% of Harry Potter's first Saturday.
Shrek 4 - 11.7% of Harry Potter's first Saturday.
Kamen Rider - 85.2% of last December's Kamen Rider film.

Holdovers:

Yamato - Down 39.4% compared to last Saturday.
Harry Potter - Down 37.4% compared to last Saturday.
Norwegian Wood - Down 45.4% compared to last Saturday.
Robin Hood - Down 56.6% compared to last Saturday.
Bleach 4 - Down 53.3% compared to last Saturday.
Abacus and Sword - Down 48.4% compared to last Saturday.

-All comparisons or drops in admissions.

Heh, Shrek 4's pre-Saturday ticket sales were very misleading.
___________________________________________________________________________________

Last December's Kamen Rider film opened to Y453 million, so we may be looking at a opening weekend of Y380-400 million ($4.6-4.8 million) for the latest film.

Unfortunately, Harry Potter's Saturday figure wasn't released, but we'll use Potter's weekend admissions number of 766k to project a possible opening weekend for Tron and Shrek.

150-160,000 admissions, so Y225-250 million ($2.7-2.9 million) with the 3D boost for Tron if it stays around 20% on Sunday. Remember, too, that it opened on Friday, so possibly Y300 million ($3.5-3.7 million) for the 3-day.

90-100,000 admissions, so Y110-125 ($1.3-1.5 million) for Shrek 4 if it stays around 12% on Sunday.

And it's going to be another close call between Yamato and Potter this weekend based on Saturday's admissions, but both are looking at weekend's around Y260 million ($3.1 million) probably, enough to beat Tron this weekend and rank 2nd and 3rd behind Kamen Rider I'd say.

Screendaily reported 4.7 mln in Japan.

It's a solid 3-day. The opening weekend will probably be about $3.7 million.

With only 350 screens, rather low for a Hollywood event film, I'm going to guess most, if not all, were 3D.

Similar to how Toy Story 3's screen count being much lower, due to playing almost exclusively in 3D, than past Pixar and Hollywood films in general.

I've see tickets priced at Y2,000 ($24) at Toho locations, and the average for a 3D film is already Y1600 ($19), so Tron's avg. ticket price is probably going to be somewhere in the middle.

So Tron could be looking at $20-30m range depending on the multiplier? Honestly that isn't very good considering the circumstances.

Yeah, probably mid 20's with a slim chance at 30 million.

It's definitely solid, but will likely end up below expectations and finish 3rd in December behind Space Battleship Yamato (may be close or at $30 million already) and Partners: The Movie II which is opening on the 23rd.


Weekend Admissions Ranking by Location (TOHO, SHIKOKU, WARNER):

TOHO
1. TRON: Legacy (Disney) NEW
2. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (TOEI) NEW
3. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 3
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) 5
5. Shrek Forever After (Paramount) NEW
6. Norwegian Wood (Toho) 2
7. Last Chushingura (Warner Bros.) NEW
8. Robin Hood (Toho-Towa) 2
9. Burlesque (Sony) NEW
10. Cheburashka and The School Bears Double Feature (Toho) NEW
http://www.tohotheater.jp/index.html


SHIKOKU
1. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (TOEI) NEW
2. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 3
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) 5
4. TRON: Legacy (Disney) NEW
5. Last Chushingura (Warner Bros.) NEW
6. Shrek Forever After (Paramount) NEW
7. Norwegian Wood (Toho) 2
8. Bleach: Hell Arc (Toho) 3
9. Abacus and Sword (Asmik Ace) 3
10. Leonie (Kadokawa Pictures) 5
http://www.shikoku-np.co.jp/cinema/ranking/


WARNER
1. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (TOEI) NEW
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) 5
3. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 3
4. TRON: Legacy (Disney) NEW
5. Last Chushingura (Warner Bros.) NEW
http://www.warnermycal.com/

12/18-19 Weekend Estimates



1 - Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (TOEI) - Y374 million ($4.46 million), NEW
2 - TRON: Legacy (Disney) - Y283 million ($3.37 million), NEW
3 2 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) - Y241 million ($2.87 million), -37%, Week 5
4 1 Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) - Y236 million ($2.81 million), -40%, Week 3
5 - Shrek Forever After (Paramount) - Y120 million ($1.43 million), NEW
6 3 Norwegian Wood (Toho) - Y118 million ($1.40 million), -36%, Week 2
7 - Last Chushingura (Warner Bros.) - Y95 million ($1.13 million), NEW
8 - Burlesque (Sony) - Y74 million ($.88 million), NEW
9 5 Abacus and Sword (Asmik Ace) - Y73 million ($.87 million), -39%, Week 3
10 4 Robin Hood (Toho-Towa) - Y61 million ($.73 million), -53%, Week 2
11 6 Bleach: Hell Arc (Toho) - Y41 million ($.49 million), -51%, Week 3
12 - Cheburashka and The School Bears Double Feature (Toho) - Y38 million ($.45 million), NEW

Some estimated totals:

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I - "Nearly" Y5 billion ($60 million), exceeding 4 million admissions after 31 days.
Space Battleship Yamato - Exceeded Y2.2 billion ($26.5 million), about 1.8 million admissions after 19 days.

Admission Rankings

1. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (TOEI) NEW
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) 5
3. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 3
4. TRON: Legacy (Disney) NEW
5. Shrek Forever After (Paramount) NEW
6. Last Shushingura (Warner Bros.) NEW
7. Norwegian Wood (Toho) 2
8. Abacus and Sword (Asmik Ace) 3
9. Burlesque (Sony) NEW
10. Robin Hood (Toho-Towa) 2

Biggest Fifth Weekends (2010 releases):

USD
1. Avatar - $5,754,496 (+3%)
2. The Borrower Arrietty - $5,558,692 (+24%)
3. Toy Story 3 - $4,923,436 (-31%)
4. Alice in Wonderland - $4,745,557 (-17%)
5. Bayside Shakedown 3: Set The Guys Loose! - $3,379,153 (-9%)
6. Umizaru 3: The Last Message - $3,197,506 (-52%)
7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - $2,870,000 (-37%) (estimate)


YEN
1. Avatar - Y518,422,931
2. The Borrower Arrietty - Y478,784,680
3. Alice in Wonderland - Y438,591,102
4. Toy Story 3 - Y420,806,325
5. Bayside Shakedown 3: Set The Guys Loose! - Y292,061,729
6. Umizaru 3: The Last Message - Y259,959,807
7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Y241,000,000 (estimate)


_________________________________________________________________________________

Biggest Five Week Totals (2010 releases):

USD
1. Alice in Wonderland - $101,025,920
2. Umizaru 3: The Last Message - $80,785,243
3. Toy Story 3 - $77,918,221
4. Avatar - $77,732,992
5. The Borrower Arrietty - $75,071,699
6. Bayside Shakedown 3: Set The Guys Loose! - $60,759,382
7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - $59,200,000 (estimate)

YEN
1. Alice in Wonderland - Y9,342,592,551
2. Avatar - Y7,002,970,246
3. Toy Story 3 - Y6,659,674,963
4. Umizaru 3: The Last Message - Y6,567,904,735
5. The Borrower Arrietty - Y6,466,121,958
6. Bayside Shakedown 3: Set The Guys Loose! - Y5,251,461,356
7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Y4,950,000,000 (estimate)


Technically, Harry Potter 7 will be counted as a 2011 release now, but oh well.

I'm going to go ahead and post the 2011 Charts so I won't have to go back and find the information later on. Only Opening Weekends have been included at this time. And it's much easier to find information for totals when I need them.

The charts will be upgraded to the usual Top 20 around mid-year.

Top 10 Opening Weekend of 2011 by Gross




Top 10 Opening Weekends of 2011 by Admissions

This week's openers:

12/23 - Partners: The Movie II, Ultraman Zero The Movie: Super Decisive Battle! Belial's Galactic Empire, Inazuma Eleven: Saikyō Gundan Ogre Shūrai (2D and 3D), Charlie St. Cloud




Partners 2 is expected to be big, and should challenge Space Battleship Yamato for the New Year crown this year. Partners 1 opened to Y591,743,164 (2-day) / Y948,411,387 (4-day) in May 2008, and went on to finish with Y4.44 billion ($52.5 million with the current exchange rate).

There are also several foreign (French, German, Italian) films opening in limited released on the 24th and 25th.

Partners II outpaced it's predecessor by 90.5% in advance ticket sales (39,782 vs 75,776) leading into its opening day.

The film is also beating Space Battleship Yamato in advance bookings (and with less screens) on opening day by 47% at the same locations:

Partners: The Movie II
Isesaki MOVIX: 79/508
Kurashiki MOVIX: 176/456
Shimizu MOVIX: 64/424
Miyoshi MOVIX: 371/519
Saitama MOVIX: 254/502
Misato MOVIX: 72/518
MOVIX Kawaguchi: 112/427
Kameari MOVIX: 131/460
Akishima MOVIX: 57/495
Sakai MOVIX: 29/472
Yao MOVIX: 100/449
Total: 1445/5230


Space Battleship Yamato
Isesaki MOVIX: 28/508
Kurashiki MOVIX: 116/456
Shimizu MOVIX: 36/424
Miyoshi MOVIX: 166/519
Miyoshi MOVIX: 34/151
Saitama MOVIX: 137/502
Misato MOVIX: 26/518
Misato MOVIX: 32/185
Kawaguti MOVIX: 119/427
Kameari MOVIX: 125/460
Akishima MOVIX: 39/495
Sakai MOVIX: 26/472
Yao MOVIX: 75/449
Yao MOVIX: 29/330
Total: 988/5896


Space Battleship Yamato opened to Y200 million ($2.4 million) it's opening day on a Wednesday.

If the above figures reflects what is happening at all locations, Partners II may do Y300 million ($3.6 million) today.

Edit: Inazuma Eleven is also doing extremely well, selling out most of it's showings already. I'm curious to know it's screen count.

Top Selling DVDs of 2010


1. Michael Jackson's This Is It - 1.12 million (includes deluxe)
2. Evangelion 2.0: You Can (Not) Advance - 374,000
3. Avatar - 300,000
4. One Piece: Strong World - 250,000 (includes deluxe)
5. 2012 - 190,000
6. Alice in Wonderland - 180,000
7. Up - 162,000
8. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - 160,000
9. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 160,000
10. Summer Wars - 120,000


Top Selling Blu-Rays of 2010


1. Evangelion 2.0: You Can (Not) Advance - 450,000
2. Michael Jackson's This Is It - 357,000
3. Toy Story 3 - 253,000 (includes deluxe)
4. Avatar - 221,000
5. Mobile Suit Gundam UC #1 - 106,000
6. Mobile Suit Gundam UC #2 - 99,000
7. Sherlock Holmes - 89,000
8. District 9 - 85,000
9. One Piece: Strong World - 83,000
10. Summer Wars - 79,000

http://www.oricon.co.jp/

Space Battleship Yamato has exceeded 2 million admissions, Y2.5 billion ($30 million) as of 12/23 or 22 days in release. Toho is still expecting a Y6 billion ($72.5 million) total, but seeing as how they always overproject, Y4.5-5 billion ($55-60 million) is more reasonable.

http://hochi.yomiuri.co.jp/entertainmen ... 00018.html

Thursday admissions at the usual locations will be posted shortly.

Thursday Admissions from the usual locations (10-15% of the market):

Rank/Title/Tickets Sold/Seats Available



1. Inazuma Eleven: The Strongest Ogre Army Attacks (Toho) - 18,962/24,584
2. Partners: The Movie II (TOEI) - 13,628/31,175
3. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (TOEI) - 6,805/12,206
4. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) - 4,806/13,631
5. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) - 4,716/9,675
6. TRON: Legacy (Disney) - 3,376/17,168
7. Shrek Forever After (Paramount) - 2,921/11,512
8. Last Chushingura (Warner Bros.) - 2,379/9,097
9. Norwegian Wood (Toho) - 1,880/7,730


Very impressive for Inazuma Eleven. It will be more frontloaded than Partners 2, but such a big opening day (95% more tickets sold than Bleach: Hell Arc on opening day) will allow it an easy second place ranking this weekend. And who knows, with 3D prices, it may have a chance at the top spot. Partners II attracting a much older audience may offset those 3D gains for Inazuma though.

Thursday, 12/23
Emperor's Day Partial Results:



1. Inazuma Eleven: The Strongest Ogre Army Attacks (Toho) - Y256 million ($3.09 million) NEW
2. Partners: The Movie II (TOEI) - Y205 million ($2.48 million) NEW
3. TRON: Legacy (Disney) - Y100 million ($1.2 million), 7 days in release
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) - Y97 million ($1.17 million), 34 days in release
5. Ultraman Zero The Movie: Super Decisive Battle! Belial's Galactic Empire - Y50 million ($.602 million) NEW
6. Shrek Forever After (Paramount) - Y45 million ($.542 million), 6 days in release
7. Last Chushingura (Warner Bros.) - Y41 million ($.494 million), 6 days in release

Big opening day for Inazuma Eleven (opened on 225 screens), and Partners II (opened on 329 screens) debuts to about the same number opening day as Space Battleship Yamato which opened on Wed., Dec. 1st.

Still awaiting: Kamen Rider (I'd guess Y125 million or so), Space Battleship Yamato (Y90-105 million), Norwegian Wood (just below Chushingura).

Saturday Drops for the holdovers compared to last Saturday:

Norwegian Wood (-9.7%)
Harry Potter (-20.3%)
Shrek (-28.1%)
Space Battleship Yamato (-31.7%)
TRON (-38.5%)
Last Chushingura (-46%)
Kamen Rider (-71%)

Nothing concrete has been released for Partners II or Inazuma Eleven. It's early morning Sunday right now though, so some updates should be released soon.

Holiday 2011

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I - Y7-7.5 billion ($84.5-90.5 million)
Space Battleship Yamato - Y4.5-5.0 billion ($54-60 million)
Partners: The Movie II - Y4.0-4.5 billion ($48-54 million)
TRON: Legacy - Y2.0-2.5 billion ($24-30 million)
Norwegian Wood - Y1.5-2.0 billion ($18-24 million)
Inazuma Eleven: The Strongest Ogre Army Attacks - Y1.5-2.0 billion ($18-24 million)
Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core - Y1.2-1.7 billion ($14-20 million)
Abacus and Sword - Y1.0-1.5 billion ($12-18 million)

Projected totals for all films aiming for Y1 billion or more this Holiday Year.

We'll see how accurate these are next month.

Partners: The Movie II exceeded 500,000 admissions in four days.

http://www.cinemacafe.net/news/cgi/report/2010/12/9721/

The article doesn't say how much it grossed over those four days, but using a rough average ticket price of Y1325 (the older audience may mean higher) would give it Y675 million ($8.1 million) or thereabout.

12/25-26, Weekend Admission Rankings by Locations:




TOHO
1. Inazuma Eleven: The Strongest Ogre Army Attacks! (Toho) NEW
2. Partners: the Movie II (TOEI) NEW
3. TRON: Legacy (Disney) 2
4. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 4
5. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) 6
6. Norwegian Wood (Toho) 3
7. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (TOEI) 2
8. Shrek Forever After (Paramount) 2
9. Robin Hood (Toho-Towa) 3
10. Burlesque (Sony) 2




WARNER
1. Partners: The Movie II (TOEI) NEW
2. Inazuma Eleven: The Strongest Ogre Army Attacks! (Toho) NEW
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) 6
4. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 4
5. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (TOEI) 2

SHIKOKU
1. Partners: The Movie II (TOEI) NEW
2. Inazuma Eleven: The Strongest Ogre Army Attacks! (Toho) NEW
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) 6
4. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 4
5. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (TOEI) 2
6. Last Chushingura (Warner Bros.) 2
7. TRON: Legacy (Disney) 2
8. Ultraman Zero The Movie: Super Decisive Battle! Belial's Galactic Empire (Shochiku) NEW
9. Sherk Forever After (Paramount) 2
10. Abacus and Sword (Asmik Ace) 4


kamechan may release numbers before I head to bed, if not, then I'll post them tomorrow.

National Top 10 (December 25-26):



1. Partners: The Movie II (TOEI) NEW
2. Inazuma Eleven: The Strongest Ogre Army Attacks (Toho) NEW
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) 6
4. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 4
5. TRON: Legacy (Disney) 2
6. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (TOEI) 2
7. Norwegian Wood (Toho) 3
8. Shrek Forever After (Paramount) 2
9. Last Chushingura (Warner Bros.) 2
10. Ultraman Zero The Movie: Super Decisive Battle! Belial's Galactic Empire (Shochiku) NEW

Partners 2 - Opening Day (Thursday) - Y210 million ($2.5 million) / Y270 million ($3.3 million) 2-day (Sat. and Sun.), 200,000 admissions on 327 screens / 500,000 admissions (looks fishy to me now) reported for the 4-day.

Inazuma Eleven - Opening Day (Thursday) - Y256 million ($3.1 million) / Y200 million ($2.4 million) 2-day (Sat. and Sun), 170,000 admissions on 229 screens (191 3D, 38 2D) / 4-day figure has yet to be released.

Harry Potter 7 - Exceeded 4.4 million admissions, clearing Y5 billion ($61 million).

Space Battleship Yamato - Exceeded 2.2 million admissions, clearing Y2.5 billion ($30 million).

Both Harry Potter and Yamato's number will be a little higher because those figures were reported after Thursday a few days ago, also.

Totals as of 12/26

Umizaru 3: The Last Message - Y8.003 billion ($96.8 million) after 15 weeks.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Y5.354 billion ($64.7 million) after 6 weeks.
SP: The Motion Picture - Y3.379 billion ($40.8 million) after 9 weeks.
Space Battleship Yamato - Y2.698 billion ($32.6 million) after 4 weeks.
Abacus and Sword - Y.927 billion ($11.2 million) after 4 weeks.
TRON: Legacy - Y.899 billion ($10.9 million) after 2 weeks.
Norwegian Wood - Y.806 billion ($9.7 million) after 3 weeks.
Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core - Y.700 billion ($8.5 million) after 2 weeks.
Robin Hood - Y.492 billion ($5.9 million) after 3 weeks.
Bleach: Hell Arc - Y.468 billion ($5.7 million) after 4 weeks.
Last Chushingura - Y.329 billion ($3.9 million) after 2 weeks.
Shrek Forever After - Y.312 billion ($3.8 million) after 2 weeks.
Burlesque - Y.255 billion ($3.1 million) after 2 weeks.
Kiss & Kill - Y.141 billion ($1.7 million) after 4 weeks.

Actuals for the two openers have also been released, and will be updated in the 2011 Chart Update.

Partners 2 grossed Y126 million ($1.6 million) on Monday to bring it's 5-day total just over Y700 million ($8.6 million).

This entire week is the one of the two strongest of the year (the other being Golden Week), so expect all totals to see a substantial increase after this weekend.

There are no openers this week.