I think the marketing, on a nationwide level, really began this weekend.

-The most recent trailer (if it's a new one, I'll try to find it and post it) began screening in theaters this weekend.

-And some new IMAX screens (six in total) are to open at Grandberry Mall in Tokyo on the 15th, the same day Harry Potter opens.

I'll also post any big updates for it in the Japan BO thread (or in my sig) as the release gets closer.

Coolness, i love your coverage, better than anyone.

BTW - i'm curious, what's your prediction for Tin Tin and the Hobbit in Japan? Do you think they'll be big?

Fellowship of the Ring - 9.07 billion yen
Two Towers - 7.90 billion yen
Return of the King - 10.32 billion yen

(If you ever want to see how certain films performed btw, you can check out the main Box Office source in Japan HERE.) Note that films that grossed a significant amount in more than one year are sometimes included twice, with or without the same gross.

I'd rule out the Hobbit beating Return of the King right now (3D may change this though), but I wouldn't bet on it doing less than Two Towers. Maybe 8/9 billion yen ($100 million, more or less) is a reasonable guess at this time.

My only concern for the Hobbit would be the same one I had with Bayside Shakedown 3 last year - the "not too long, not too short" wait. I've noticed that when sequels, or continuations, are released between 7-10 years after the previous installment, they tend to "disappoint" a little at the Box Office.

I don't know if it's because the earlier fans have moved on after so long, or if there hasn't been enough time for a new audience to gain interest. It's probably a combination of both, because sequels released a year or two (or even in the same year) after a previous film typically have a similar gross as their predecessor (Pokemon, Pirates of the Caribbean, or other local franchises for some examples). The same applies when sequels are released over 10 years after the previous work. Those films generally post huge increases. (Toy Story as an example here).

I really don't know about Tin Tin. Spielberg will clearly help, but I can't recall any mo-cap films being that successful.

Well The Hobbit arrives just over ten years from FOTR and 8 years from ROTK.

In comparison, Phantom Menace arrived 22 years from the original and 16 years from ROTJ. Breakout

Indiana Jones TKOTCS arrived 27 years after the original and 19 years from TLC. Good increase

Terminator 3 arrived 19 years after the original and 12 years from Terminator 2. Poor increase

I know what you mean by it's neither a short nor long wait, it could definately work against it....though the 4 year wait for POTC4 didn't seem to really hurt it overseas. I think we just have to face the fact that overseas markets are now growing at a much faster rate than ever before. The twin giants of Russia and China are growing and it's pulling all neighbouring countries along for the ride. South America is also going through a resurgence.

On a side note, are you sure it wasn't because Bayside Shakedown wasn't as good as a followup to Bayside Shakedown 2.

In yen, Terminator 3 increased over 40% from Terminator 2 (8.2 billion vs 5.75 billion) And since ticket sales have remained pretty much the same over the years, that would be about a 40% increase in admissions, too.

I edited my post a little, and with a link I think you'll find most interesting.

That's why most of the year INTL B.O. became much more exciting than domestic B.O....

I assume it would be similar in Australia...at Event Cinemas and Hoyts, the two main chains which make up the majority of revenue in New Zealand, DH2 has sold more than 5 times as many tickets for midnights than TF3 - around 9100 vs 1700.

I know, i've alwasy been more of a fan of international BO (obviously LOL ), i find it wonderful that we have the dynamics of US Blockbusters vs. Local releases and what makes it much more fun now is that there's more data than ever before and we see a lot of movement at the top of the all-time charts.

2001 was a true watershed year IMO, LOTRs and Harry Potter have changed the landscape.

Yup, though midnights probably mean nothing in the long haul. HP6 outopened Transformers 2 but they literally finished within $1m of each other here in Australia.

Unlike the US culture i think, midnights have not been as big comparatively....there's no super rush to necessarily see anything (i'm generalising of course)....our movies like Europe get released before Friday (Thursday for us) and thus, the emphasis is more on the Friday-Saturday-Sunday portion when moviegoers get out.

10 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End BV $963.4 $309.4 32.1% $654.0 67.9% 2007

12 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix WB $938.2 $292.0 31.1% $646.2 68.9% 2007

The last time Harry Potter and Pirates matched up, guess who won the overseas titles. They were both released in exactly the same frames.....signs of things to come?

You mean the movie which was supposed to be the grand finale won?

GERMANY Preview:

Jun 29 - Transformers 3, Larry Crowne (Jun 30)
Jul 07 - Zookeeper
Jul 14 - Harry Potter 7-2
Jul 21 - Bridesmaids, Hoodwinked 2
Jul 28 - Cars 2, Green Lantern,
Aug 04 - Super 8, Smurfs, Monte Carlo
Aug 11 - Rise of the Planet of the Apes,
Aug 18 - Captain America, Midnight in Paris
Aug 25 - Cowboys & Aliens

2001: Harry Potter 1: PS
* Fought a tough battle with FOTR in 2001 for the yearly crown. HP1 winning 12.556.748 vs. 11.833.420 admissions. It was a massive year in BO which also saw another 10m+ grosser in the form of Der Shuh Des Manitu 11.721.499 admissions. To this day, still the only Harry Potter release to gross more than 10m admissions.
* HP1 still holds the opening weekend record (over the regular 4-Day frame) at a lofty 2.590.464 admissions. No other movie has grossed more than 2.5m over the regular opening frame. It held the #1 spot for 4 straight weeks until FOTR.
* HP1 was the first movie since Titanic to cross 10m admissions in Germany and is to this day the 2nd largest movie of all-time in Germany (modern era).

2002: Harry Potter 2: COS
* Lost the year to TTT (9.694.259 vs. 10.692.798 adms.) and falling below 10m admissions. It was a very competitive year with 6 movies grossing more than 5m admissions. The Top 6 dominated by TTT, HP2, Ice Age 1, Star Wars 2, Spiderman and Men In Black 2 (James Bond Die Another Day just missing out).
* Only Avatar has managed to beat this total gross in recent years (11.260.273 adms.).
* HP2 currently sits at #10 on the All-Time admissions charts (for movies post 1980s)
* Opening wise, HP2 was just a smidgen behind HP1 (#2 record holder over the 4-Day frame); however, it held the #1 spot for only2 weeks, dethroned by Die Another Day.

2004: Harry Potter 3: POA
* One of the best years for local BO, with the top two spots belonging to two outrageous German comedies, TRaumschiff Surprise (9.165.932) and 7 Zwerge (6.799.699). Harry Potter 3 comes in at #3 for the year with 6.550.028 admissions; though ahead of Shrek 2 - 5.322.170 and Der Untergang 4.624.506. Only one other Potter flick (HP6) has failed to enter the Top 2.
* HP3 also lost the franchise' domination on the opening charts, beaten by TRaumschiff. It was also the first Potter flick to open below 2m admissions over the 4-Day frame.
* It did hold the #1 spot for 4 straight weeks though, tieing with TRaumschiff, 7 Zwerge and Der Untergang, However they were all beaten by Bärenbrüder which held for 5 straight weeks that year.

2005: Harry Potter 4: GOF
* Another drop in admissions for the franchise, though it did regain the #1 Yearly spot with 7.948.353 admissions; above Madagascar, Star Wars 3, Hitch and Narnia. This is one of the weakest years in the past decade.
* HP4 did regain opening mojo, back above 2m admissions and actually the 3rd largest of all-time over the regular frame. It ruled for 3 straight weeks, ended by Narnia.

2007: Harry Potter 5: OOTP
* Quite a competitive year, with HP5 claiming the #1 Yearly crown for the franchise again, 3rd time. When i say competitive, HP5's 7.076.615 was followed closely by Keinorhasen (6.297.816), Rataouille 6.104.073 and Pirates 3 6.079.497.
*Opening wise, Potter lost out to Pirates 3 and just barely defeated Simpsons Movie. In fact, it was Simpsons which ended HP5's reign at the top, just 2 weeks - shortest stay at the top for the franchise.

2009: Harry Potter 6: HBP
* Big year this. While HP6 had an equal franchise low position of #3 Yearly, it was beaten by some giants, Avatar 11.260.273 and Ice Age 3's 8.709.881. Rounding out the top 5 was Wickie Und Die Starken Manner and Angels & Demons
* HP6 ended Ice Age 3's 2 week stay at the top and ruled for 4 straight weeks. It's opening was easily the largest of the year, with the nerest competitor New Moon well down.

2010: Harry Potter 7-1: DH
* Weakest year yet for admissions in Germany, Hp7-1 was #1 for the year but with a franchise low of 5.670.068 admissions. No other releases last year made more than 4m admissions. Only Tangled came close with 3.918.973 (but it made most of that in the New Year). Eclipse, Inception and Alice in Wonderland rounding out the top 5.
* Opening was also low, 2nd lowest of the franchise in fact over the regular frame and the weakest 1st week gross fro the franchise in admissions.

Harry Potter 1: PS - 1.9m adms. // 7.5m adms.

Only two movies have managed more than 1m admissions over the regular opening frame (Pirates 4 and Hangover 2) and HP7-2 will cream them both, in fact, i don't see any movie this year coming any where near this after Kung Fu Panda 2 dissapointed this past week. We'll have to look to the holiday season latter this year for any movie with the power to come anywhere near the aformentioned movies (Titin and Breaking Dawn are the only obvious standouts). Cars, which opens just 2 weeks after Potter will not be a major threat (the original barely registered half of 1m admissions on opening and will likely have a more stretched out run). HP7-2 opens in a pretty neat spot actually, 2 weeks after Transformers 3 with nothing in between worth mentioning. Transformers will probably see a slight 3D uptick from ROTF but i don't see any breakouts there.

This is Potter's year to loose, if this doesn't take the yearly title then the world has really ended. I see a bump back to form seeing as this is the last release, though with admissions totals droping every year don't expect the lofty 9m+ admissions that we saw back in the early days. If this can get past 7m then it'll be a really good run (the last Potter movie to do so was HP5 back in 2007). I'm predicting 7.5m.


Harry Potter 1: PS - 2.590.464 adms. (US$14.8m) // 12.556.007 adms. (US$68m) - 4.84x
Lord of the Rings: FOTR - 1.813.898 adms. (US$12m) // 11.831.850 adms. (US$70.8m) - 6.5x
Avatar - 893.169 adms. (US$13.3m) // 11.260.273 (US$156) = 12.6x
Lord of the Rings: TTT - 2.021.239 adms. (US$15.2m) // 10.691.738 adms. (US$76m) - 5.3x
Lord of the Rings: ROTK - 2.050.755 adms. (US$17.75m) // 10.430.320 adms. (US$90m) - 5.1x
Harry Potter 2: COS - 2.489.952 adms. (US$16.28m) // 9.693.596 adms. (US$60m) = 3.9x
Jurassic Park 1 - 1.742.937 adms. (US$10.5m) // 9.367.216 adms. (US$56.3m) = 5.38x
Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - 2.395.588 adms. (US$17.15m) // 8.732.937 adms. (US$63m) = 3.67x
Ice Age 3: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs - 1.457.891 adms. (US$16.2m) // 8.705.891 adms. (US$82.5m) = 5.97x
Finding Nemo - 2.032.136 adms. (US$13.3m) // 8.678.707 adms. (US$56.5m) = 4.27x
Star Wars 1: PM - 1.786.960 adms. (US$12.4m) // 8.044.788 adms. (US$55m) = 4.5x
Harry Potter 4: GOF - 2.685.158 adms. (US$21.7m) // 7.915.895 adms. (US$63m) = 2.95x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: DMC - 1.924.778 adms. (US$18m) // 7.144.107 adms. (US$61m) = 3.7x
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - 1.682.806 adms. (US$15.5m) 5-Day // 7.076.615 adms. (US$65.9m) = 4.2x
Madagascar - 1.226.475 adms. (US$8.6m) // 6.704.558 adms. (US$43m) = 5.48x
Harry Potter 3: POA - 1.987.285 adms. (US$15.27m) // 6.545.279 adms. (US$48.7m) - 3.3x
Harry Potter 6: HBP - 1.844.184 adms. (US$23.85m) // 6.128.515 adms. (US$65m) = 3.32x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: AWE - 1,860,775 adms. (US$16.6m) // 6.079.497 adms. (US$59.4m) = 3.2x
Madagascar 2: Escape 2 Africa - 1.475.967 adms. (US$11.2m) // 6.042.282 adms. (US$46m) = 4.1x
Pirates Of The Caribbean: TCOTBP - 1.193.025 adms. (US$11.6m) // 5.978.657 adms. (US$40.6m) = 5x
Star Wars 2: AOTC - 1.846.885 adms. (US$11.8m) // 5.699.678 adms. (US$35.2m) = 3.08x
Harry Potter 7-1: DH - 1.768.932 adms. (US$23m) // 5.670.068 ($61.5m) = 3.2x
Star Wars 3: ROTS - 1.964.960 adms. (US$17.8m) // 5.620.503 adms. (US$46.8m) = 2.86x

Yeah, you could also look at it that way

I really really really hope Potter can manage a 2,000,000+ admissions opening, but I don't expect it to happen.

Well, Ice Age 3 couldn't muster it over the regular 4-Day frame, not sure if anything is going to touch 2m admissions anytime soon. I even doubt Ice Age 4/The Hobbit could open that high next year.

The last movie to hit 2m was Ice Age 2 wasn't it?

Yep.

According to InsideKino.de only 8 movies have managed to surpass 2m over the regular frame...did a portion of Germany just die or something over the past few years. It's getting so hard now to cross even 1.5m admissions on opening.

http://insidekino.de/DJahr/DBOStartrekord.htm

1 2.590.464 1.226 2.113 01 Harry Potter 1 (WB)
2 2.489.952 1.249 1.994 02 Harry Potter 2 (WB)
3 2.400.158 1.243 1.931 05 Harry Potter 4 (WB)
4 2.395.588 1.061 2.258 06 Ice Age 2 (FOX)
5 2.164.909 899 2.408 04 (T)Raumschiff Surprise (NCO)
6 2.050.755 1.337 1.534 03 Der Herr der Ringe 3 (WB)
7 2.032.136 1.004 2.024 03 Findet Nemo (BV)
8 2.021.239 1.266 1.597 02 Der Herr der Ringe 2 (WB)

9 1.987.285 1.204 1.651 04 Harry Potter 3 (WB)
10 1.964.960 1.182 1.662 05 Die Rache der Sith (FOX)
11 1.954.972 885 2.209 97 Men in Black (COL)
12 1.924.778 1.330 1.447 06 Fluch der Karibik 2 (BV)
13 1.918.566 885 2.168 96 Independence Day (FOX)
14 1.860.775 974 1.910 07 Fluch der Karibik 3 (BV)
15 1.846.885 1.038 1.779 02 Angriff der Klonkrieger (FOX)
16 1.844.184 831 2.219 09 Harry Potter 6 (WB)
17 1.813.898 1.070 1.695 01 Der Herr der Ringe 1 (WB)
18 1.788.781 1.124 1.591 03 Matrix Reloaded (WB)
19 1.786.960 1.001 1.785 99 Die dunkle Bedrohung (FOX)

Well, one of the things now is that previews are no longer counted towards the actual Thu-Sun frame, though that is not the only reason. For some reason HUGE blockbuster openings are just no longer a norm anymore.

Openings should be getting bigger and bigger not the other way around. In Australia, we use to have pretty good legs across the board but movies now in local dollars are becoming increasingly front-loaded.

We probably use to get at least 4x for the blockbuster, now it'll be pretty good if it does more than 3x opening.

Yeah well don't forget you're comparing dollars to admissions. To make any useful comparison you'll have to pull the figures up in euros.

That's true. unfortunately australia doesn't track admissions (or at least not those readily accessible by the public).

With Transformers 3 now no longer a contender, the door opens for Harry Potter 7-2 to win the Domestic Crown, it hasn't done so ever since the original HP1 narrowly defeated FOTR back in 2001.

Only one other movie has the obvious power to gross $300m and that's Twilight Breaking Dawn Part 1.

I think Potter can do it, we haven't seen a breakout performance yet this year (except Bridesmaids and Hangover's opening) and i think we overdue. Potter 7-2 will be the one to beat and should hit #350m IMO...enough to take the #1 crown. I don't see Transformers 3 grossing more than $330m and Breaking Dawn Part I may drop from Eclipse with around $280-$310m.

With the recent explosion in admissions by Transformers 3, I see this making 4m OW in Hong Kong. It may even hit 4.5m. Pre-sales have been excellent so far...better than Transformers. It is already 80% full in some shows in IMAX and this has only been pre-selling for 2 days.

China will definitely help out as many will flock here to catch it early.

Pre-Sales for Potter have definately been the biggest we've seen for quite some time. It's hard now to get any good midnight seats.