June release schedule:

Release Date	Movie Title
June 2	X-Men: First Class The Hangover 2 Submarine Love, In Between
June 9	Super 8 Microsex Office Fireworks From The Heart The Man From Nowhere
June 16	Green Lantern The Conspirator Something Borrowed Henry's Crime
June 23	Chinese Communist Party London Boulevard Treasure Inn
June 30	Transformers: Dark Of The Moon The Tree Of Life

Besides all the blockbuster weeks, June 23 will be another interesting one. Chinese Communist Party is going up against Treasure Inn. Treasure Inn is a wuxia comedy that stars Nicholas Tse and Cheung Ka Fai (The Stool Pigeon). London Boulevard is hoping to be another Salt except this time it's a man as the lead character.

There is a lot of counterprogramming going on June 16. Green Lantern definitely looks like the weakest "blockbuster" of the bunch so I'm not surprised that a romance flick along with 2 drama movies were scheduled that week.

It'll be interesting to see how Microsex Office does. I've heard the TV series is really popular but I'm not too sure if the popularity will translate over to the big screen.

Pirates 4

Day 0: $166,117
Day 1: $342,015
Total: $508,132

Partials for Thursday:

LW	TW	Title	Last Thur. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Total
	1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	--	$342,015	--	$508,132
2	2	Fast Five	$55,058	$24,131	-56.2%	$1,440,780
3	3	The Detective 2	$54,672	$22,668	-58.5%	$496,554
5	4	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D	--	$15,597	--	$4,784,162
1	5	Priest 3D	$55,187	$10,897	-80.3%	$419,369
	6	Source Code	--	$3,584	--	$1,138,473
	7	Gantz: Perfect Answer	$15,436	$3,461	-77.6%	$115,776
4	8	Thor 3D	--	$2,865	--	$2,440,321
	9	Water For Elephants	--	$1,665	--	$218,689
	10	Punished	--	$1,387	--	$286,869

	Friday adm.				May 20
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	--	45668	--	+24.9%
2	The Detective 2	11192	4581	-59.1%	+39.3%
3	Fast Five	11666	4396	-62.3%	+35.5%
4	Priest 3D	8354	2619	-68.6%	+17.8%
5	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D	3514	1867	-46.9%	+13.5%

Nice increase although the weekend is what we are most anxious to see. The Detective 2 and Fast Five may look decent for now but that will change this weekend. Priest looks dead. Can it avoid an 85-90% drop in gross? Still good for Sex & Zen although the weekend won't be so kind.

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			May 21
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	--	43232	--	+62.8%
2	The Detective 2	4540	1944	-57.2%	+19.6%
3	Fast Five	3854	1615	-58.1%	+23.6%
4	Priest 3D	4896	1458	-70.2%	-12.7%
5	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D	1118	868	-22.4%	+22.4%

Very nice increase. 75,000 today is not of the question, I think. 85k seems to be out of reach. Fast Five/The Detective 2 look to be heading towards at least a 60% drop, more likely (-65%). Priest might have a 75% drop although it will be very close. Sex looks good for now but doesn't have many shows left. It will fall over 50% today.

My Friday estimates:

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D - $427,324 ($935,456)
2. Fast Five - $32,690 ($1,473,470)
3. The Detective 2 - $31,572 ($528,126)
4. Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D - $17,701 ($4,801,863)
5. Priest 3D - $12,838 ($432,207)

Notes:

- Bridesmaids will open July 7.

- Cars 2 has moved to August 11.

- Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes has also moved to August 11.

- Final Destination 5 has a tentative release date set for September 8.

- Larry Crowne will open August 18.

	Saturday adm.				May 21
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	--	85397	--	+87.0%
2	Fast Five	20295	8584	-57.7%	+95.3%
3	The Detective 2	22162	8554	-61.4%	+86.7%
4	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D	5724	3537	-38.2%	+89.4%
5	Priest 3D	13502	3173	-76.5%	+21.2%

Incredible for Pirates. That is an insane increase. Night shows really helped seal the deal for Pirates. Quite surprising given that it's a family film.

Those drops aren't too bad for Fast Five and The Detective 2. I thought they would both fall a little bit harder. Sex is really continuing its interesting and wacky run. It manages to drop 57% on a holiday weekend but falls less than 50% when an event film comes out? Priest took a nosedive.

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			May 22
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	--	46575	--	+7.7%
2	The Detective 2	5245	2041	-61.1%	+5.0%
3	Fast Five	4514	1949	-56.8%	+20.7%
4	Priest 3D	5643	1620	-71.3%	+11.1%
5	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides	--	1037	--	--

Good increase for Pirates. Not a good increase for The Detective 2. Could drop 65% today. Fast Five may just avoid a 60% drop. Priest died. The 2D version of Pirates 4 makes its way into the top 5. Very cool and awesome that a 3D film can generate that many admissions with the 2D version here.

Pirates estimate:

Saturday - $799,076

3-day: $1,568,415
3.25 day (includes Wednesday previews): $1,734,532

If it matches Saturday's number, it will stand at $2,368,415 for the 4 day weekend which would put it below DMC and AWE. Guess the higher ticket prices were not enough to compensate for the admissions lost. Of course, this also does not bode well for it to make 5 million considering how frontloaded the past 2 movies were.

Even if the number is slightly higher and beats DMC's OW, it is still not favored to grab over 5m.

	Sunday adm.				May 22
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	--	85061	--	-0.4%
2	Fast Five	16681	8698	-47.9%	+1.3%
3	The Detective 2	17491	7803	-55.4%	-8.8%
4	Priest 3D	11668	2855	-75.5%	-10.0%
5	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides	--	2551	--

	Weekend adm.			May 19-22
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	--	252677	--
2	Fast Five	56566	24923	-55.9%
3	The Detective 2	59033	24227	-59.0%
4	Priest 3D	41062	10870	-73.5%

Summary:

Pirates had a great Saturday/Sunday. It will be within $100,000 of DMC's OW. Fast Five and The Detective 2 did relatively well all things considered. A drop over 50% was inevitable but it didn't drop into the 60% range which is good. Fast Five should be close to 1.6m while The Detective 2 should be around $650,000. Priest will just barely cross $500,000 which would be an improvement over Legion. Sex probably won't be able to cross $5,000,000 but it will get very close.

Actuals

Pirates 4 - $2,495,979

I assume that number includes Wednesday numbers. If so, that would be below my projected estimate. Not good. If however, it does not include Wednesday, then that might be the difference between it making 5m. At this point, I see 5m as 50/50. All of it hinges on the coming weekend.

Pirates watch

Monday - 22,925 (-73.0%)

That number is pretty good for a Monday. However, Thursday could see it level off to 20,000 admissions. If that happens, it would fall around 63% combining Wednesday/Thursday's admission numbers. Not great but Saturday/Sunday will tell the tale if it crosses 5m or not.

Notes:

- Advanced ticketing for Super 8 in IMAX has now been released. Both IMAX theaters will show this which means Pirates run will end June 8.

_________________________

June 16

Green Lantern

OW - $660,000
Total - $1,340,000

In a year filled with superhero movies, this is looking to be the weakest out of the bunch. The Green Lantern brand isn't that well known here and the trailer itself doesn't look appealing. Still, it will generate interest among the superhero crowd and should open decently especially with 3D.

It will face solid competition in its opening weekend. Something Borrowed is being offered as counterprogramming. Henry's Crime and The Conspirator will play to adult audiences and Love For Live is also a counterprogramming movie with a local flair. This will be one of the crowded summer weekends this year and the fight for screens will be tough (including holdovers from Hangover 2, X-Men, Super 8), but it will win the weekend thanks to 3D.

The very next week, two local films along with a Colin Farrell thriller come out, then Transformers the week after so legs at this point is almost out of the question. Green Lantern most likely will be affected by screen cuts in its 2nd weekend so a 50% drop could be in store. After, Transformers 3 comes out so an 80% drop is expected. (Superhero/comic book movies tend to be the hardest hit when a blockbuster comes out).

I can't see how Pirates 4 will make less than US$5 million total. It only needs a multiplier of ~2 to get there. Plus it's in 3D. 3D movies tend to have softer drops.

Well, in the past, one Pirates film did not even make a 2 multiplier while the other one barely scraped by. It's not a stretch to ponder the idea that this might not even pass 5m even with 3D.

The lower opening also suggests that there is a bit of franchise fatigue. Add in the entry of the 2D version into the top 5 on Sunday and it indicates that people will find cheaper ways of watching it. It's also the first time I've seen a 2D version of a 3D film able to sneak into the top 5 in admissions on any day. Regardless of 3D, it doesn't excuse the weaknesses the Pirates franchise has exhibited here. All Pirates movies have been frontloaded and the most recent one had a huge drop in its 2nd weekend...all signs that are enough to suspect that this film may not cross 5m.

WOM from the last film was bad and this one is getting bad reviews from RT and Metacritic. Enough to cause fans/casual moviegoers to steer away from this movie and wait for another film.

One final point is that there are a ton of films that are coming out this summer. People will definitely be choosing their movies more than usual. Pirates has had little competition in the past compared with this summer.

Pirates watch

Tuesday - 33,523

That is a nice increase for Pirates.

Notes:

- X-Men: First Class advanced ticketing is now on sale.

- Zookeeper has moved to September 15.

Super 8 IMAX update:

So far, it has been doing relatively well. It hasn't been doing gangbusters but well enough that most weekend shows should be around 80-90% full when June 9 rolls around.

well... Pirates 3 is an exception; it opened on a public holiday. OW was much inflated.

Can't believe I missed that. In that case, Pirates should fall around 50-55%. If it falls below 50%, 5m is a lock but if it falls more than 55%, its chances of 5m dwindle significantly.

Pirates 4

Wednesday - 24,683 (+47.1%)

It increased 47.1% from last Wednesday's special previews.

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		May 26
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	21559	11387	-47.2%
2	A Beautiful Life	--	1710	--
3	Kidnapped	--	929	--
4	The Other Woman	--	607	--
5	Fast Five	841	533	-36.6%

Pirates didn't get many walk-ins on Monday/Wednesday so that number to me isn't great. The target is around 20,000 for today which would put it at a 45% drop for Thursday alone and a 63% drop including Wednesday admissions.

Not real great for the new openers. The only one that could be acceptable would be Kidnapped but that had quite a bit of promotion. For a foreign language film though, $100,000 would be a fantastic opening weekend. Fast Five had a decent drop.

Notes:

- Some changes to the June schedule including a major blockbuster.

- Hangover 2 is now pre-selling at all UA/MCL theaters. Broadway (biggest theatre chain) + AMC have not released pre-selling for Hangover 2 or X-Men: First Class yet.

- More additions to the June schedule.

	Thursday adm.			May 26
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	36551	17653	-51.7%
2	A Beautiful Life	--	5384	--
3	Kidnapped	--	2979	--
4	The Other Woman	--	2007	--
5	Fast Five	3245	1964	-39.5%

Not real great but I'll wait until the weekend numbers come in to determine how bad it dropped.

Also, as a sidenote, Pirates 4 fell -66.9% if you include the Wednesday night previews.

Not sure about A Beautiful Life and its expectations. It could be heading towards 200,000 for the weekend though. I'm liking that number for Kidnapped. It'll be enough for $100,000 unless if it has a weekend collapse. The Other Woman (Love And Other Impossible Pursuits) disappointed. Good drop for Fast Five.

	Friday adm.	(so far)			May 27
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	26557	13865	-47.8%	+21.8%
2	A Beautiful Life	--	2066	--	+20.8%
3	Kidnapped	--	1300	--	+39.9%
4	The Other Woman	--	1003	--	+65.2%
5	Fast Five	1307	718	-45.1%	+34.7%

Pirates should be able to cross 20,000 today. The Other Woman might overtake Kidnapped today.

Thursday Actuals

LW	TW	Title	Last Thur. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Total
1	1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	$342,015	$145,462	-57.5%	$3,340,364
--	2	A Beautiful Life	--	$29,898	--	$29,898
2	3	Fast Five	$24,131	$19,748	-18.2%	$1,665,043
--	4	Kidnapped	--	$17,533	--	$17,533
4	5	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D	$15,597	$14,481	-7.2%	$4,910,335
--	6	The Other Woman	--	$13,721	--	$13,721
3	7	The Detective 2	$22,668	$9,475	-58.2%	$696,337
--	8	Let The Wind Carry Me	--	$2,366	--	$2,366
8	9	Thor 3D	$2,865	$1,482	-48.3%	$2,471,869
5	10	Priest 3D	$10,897	$1,272	-88.3%	$508,763

Ouch for Pirates. Even after last Thursday's deflated opening, it still falls 58%. Luckily, Wednesday's gross was bigger than normal. I have it at 4.1-4.2 million after this weekend. A Beautiful Life did ok, I think. Fast Five had an incredible hold. Who would have thought that this would triple F4's gross?! Kidnapped had a good opening. Sex's hold is spectacular. $5,000,000 has to be a lock now. The Other Woman disappointed. Disappointing hold for Detective 2. Nice opening for Let The Wind Carry Me. 2,500,000 looks so close yet so far for Thor. I wouldn't be surprised if Priest falls 90% for the weekend.

	Friday adm.				May 27
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	45668	23938	-47.6%	+35.6%
2	A Beautiful Life	--	7013	--	+30.3%
3	The Other Woman	--	3611	--	+79.9%
4	Kidnapped	--	2984	--	+0.2%
5	Fast Five	4396	2466	-43.9%	+25.6%

Better but weekend will decide it.

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			May 28
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	43232	21535	-50.2%	+55.3%
2	A Beautiful Life	--	3114	--	+50.7%
3	Kidnapped	--	1321	--	+1.6%
4	The Other Woman	--	1080	--	+7.7%
5	Fast Five	1615	801	-50.4%	+11.6%

40k seems to be the target for today. Good jump for A Beautiful Life. Not impressed by the other 3 gains.

	Saturday adm.				May 28
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	85397	45522	-46.7%	+90.2%
2	A Beautiful Life	--	13446	--	+91.7%
3	The Other Woman	--	5828	--	+61.4%
4	Fast Five	8584	4457	-48.1%	+80.7%
5	Kidnapped	--	3964	--	+32.8%

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			May 29
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	46575	23000	-50.6%	+6.8%
2	A Beautiful Life	--	3508	--	+12.7%
3	Kidnapped	--	1341	--	+1.5%
4	The Other Woman	--	1215	--	+12.5%
5	Fast Five	1949	855	-56.1%	+6.7%

I think this guarantees Pirates to drop in the 50-55% range for the weekend and assures it of 5m.

A Beautiful Life is getting stronger by the day. By comparison, Kidnapped is getting weaker as the weekend comes along and has dipped in rank each day since its release. Fast Five, I think, is one of the top 3 surprises of the year. Just a fantastic performance. The Other Woman is holding its ground.

	Sunday adm.				May 29
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	85061	41544	-51.2%	-8.7%
2	A Beautiful Life	--	10861	--	-19.2%
3	The Other Woman	--	4421	--	-24.1%
4	Fast Five	8698	4001	-54.0%	-10.2%
5	Kidnapped	--	3109	--	-21.6%

	Weekend adm.			May 26-29
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	252677	128657	-49.1%
2	A Beautiful Life	--	36704	--
3	The Other Woman	--	15867	--
4	Kidnapped	--	13036	--
5	Fast Five	24923	12888	-48.3%

Summary:

Pirates had a mostly down weekend. Sunday really brought it back downwards and it might drop above 55% for the weekend. Currently, I'm putting it at around -55% for the weekend.

OW: $2,333,672
2nd weekend: $1,050,152 (-55%)
11 day total: 4,267,822

It'll then have 3 days to gross as much as possible before X-Men/Hangover 2 take over.

A Beautiful Life did relatively well given Thursday's slow start. The Other Woman was second fiddle to A Beautiful Life. Really bland and poor numbers for it. Fast Five dropped harder each day. The weekend drop will be relatively good, in the 30-40% range. Kidnapped didn't blow anything out of the water but its performance is good. It did get a wide release but anyone expecting this to perform like [REC] 2 were sadly mistaken. For a foreign language film (non-Japanese) to open with $40,000-$50,000 is great.

June 23 weekend

ChineseThe Communist Party vs. Treasure Inn vs. London Boulevard (a.k.a. Cheung Ka Fai vs. himself and Colin Farrell)

5 movies are coming out that week including the 3 listed above as well as 2 Japanese movies. The main story this weekend will be how The Communist Party does. After The Founding of a Republic grossed $500,000 OW, this one has major expectations to perform as well as or above what Republic did.

Starpower won't be a problem as this movie will feature many recognizable actors from HK and China. Just some of the names in this movie include: Chow Yun Fat, Andy Lau, Bingbing Fan, Xiaodong Guo, Yeung Chin Wah and Daniel Wu.

While it boasts a lot of starpower, subject matter of the Chinese Communist Party is bound to turn a lot of HK people away from this movie. There has been, however, an influx of mainlanders recently so no surprises if this opens very strongly.

Another factor to consider are the holdovers. It has been said earlier that with so many powerhouses coming out this summer that moviegoers will choose their movies more carefully this time around. Green Lantern will be in its 2nd weekend and will steal moviegoers from this. Also, moviegoers attracted by Super 8 and any residuals going for X-Men or Hangover 2 will try and use this weekend to catch up before Transformers 3 opens the week after.

It will have competition in its opening weekend as Cheung Ka Fai stars in both China films and London Boulevard will try and become this year's Salt and win away any audience not interested in Chinese productions. Treasure Inn reunites Cheung Ka Fai along with Nicholas Tse (Stool Pigeon) in a buddy cop comedy working on a mysterious murder case. All the attention will be focused on The Communist Party so this may get lost in the shuffle. London Boulevard's attempt to grab audiences this week could ultimately succeed but is most likely to fail thanks to so many other hyped movies. This is one of the very few Hollywood action dramas coming out this summer but Colin Farrell is no Angelina Jolie and the premise is not very interesting.

The 2 Japanese movies are of little consequence and won't do much. The first SP movie only did a little bit more than $24,000 and Tomorrow's Joe is based off of a popular Japanese manga. While Japanese anime is popular in HK and usually translates to moderate success for live-action films here, the anime for TJ came out in Japan in 1980. Even the most popular series here like Gantz, Nodame struggle to make it over $500,000 total.

There won't be any attempt of discussing legs at this point because it will get crushed in the weeks after. Transformers 3 comes out the very next week. The July 7 weekend will be very crowded and Harry Potter 7-2 will open July 14. Any survivors left will get kicked to the curb when Kung Fu Panda 2 opens July 21.

The Communist Party
OW: $450,000
Total: 680,000

Treasure Inn
OW: $200,000
Total: $350,000

London Boulevard
OW: $275,000
Total: $450,000

Weekend Estimates/Actuals:

1. Pirates 4 - $1,131,665 (-51.5%) (est.)/$4,349,335 (12 day actual)
2. A Beautiful Life - $194,074
3. The Other Woman - $92,539

Others - total:

Let The Wind Carry Me - $10,924
Fast Five - $1,733,821
The Detective 2 - $741,597
Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy - $4,966,262

Note: All grosses above are actuals unless otherwise specified.

Tomorrow's Joe has the sexy Yamapi in the starring role. Surely he'll bring the young females to the theaters.

Will Sex & Zen reach $5m?

What is Tomorrow's Joe?

Sex & Zen is expected to cruise past the $5 million mark by the end of this weekend.

It hasn't yet. See above.

Most of the theaters posted their schedules for Thursday and Sex is getting cut in about 50-60% of the remaining theaters it is in. That should be enough to carry it over 5 million even if it doesn't do it by Wednesday.

Palace IFC
New	Holdovers	Leaving
X-Men: First Class - 10 showings	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D - 4 showings (▼ 12)	Animal Kingdom
Hangover 2 - 6 showings	A Beautiful Life - 1 showing (▼ 5)	Kidnapped
Submarine - 5 showings	Let The Wind Carry Me - 1 showing (▼ 2)	Fast Five

Pacific Place
New	Holdovers	Leaving
X-Men: First Class - 8 showings	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D - 5 showings (▼ 12)	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D
Hangover 2 - 9 showings	Kidnapped - 1 showing (▼ 6)	Fast Five
	The Other Woman - 4 showings (▼ 6)	Source Code
	Thor 3D - 1 showing (▼ 2)

Palace APM
New	Holdovers	Leaving
X-Men: First Class - 11 showings	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D - 4 showings (▼ 16)	The Lost Bladesman
Hangover 2 - 7 showings	The Detective 2 - 1 showing (▼ 3)
	Kidnapped - 4 showings (▼ 7)
	Fast Five - 2 showings (▼ 4)
	A Beautiful Life - 6 showings (-)

Festival Walk
New	Holdovers	Leaving
X-Men: First Class - 9 showings	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D - 7 showings (▼ 16)	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D
Hangover 2 - 10 showings	A Beautiful Life - 5 showings (-)	The Detective 2
	Kidnapped - 1 showing (▼ 5)	Priest 3D
	The Other Woman - 6 showings (-)
	Fast Five - 1 showing (▼ 2)

Tsuen Wan
New	Holdovers	Leaving
X-Men: First Class - 9 showings	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D - 4 showings (▼ 10)	Fast Five
Hangover 2 - 6 showings	Kidnapped - 1 showing (▼ 6)
	A Beautiful Life - 1 showing (▼ 5)

Times Square
New	Holdovers	Leaving
X-Men: First Class - 9 showings	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D - 3 showings (▼ 6)	Kidnapped
Hangover 2 - 6 showings	A Beautiful Life - 1 showing (▼ 5)	The Other Woman
	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D - 2 showings (-)	Fast Five

I don't usually post this many screen counts but I thought this week was really interesting. X-Men is getting a fair number of showings. It's expected to be the #1 grosser this weekend. Huge business almost everywhere. Hangover 2 has really outdone its predecessor. Strong business from about 50% of the places so far.

Pirates got pounded this week. APM cut its showtimes by 75%! It still got 7 PM showtimes at most locations but they are in the smallest or in a small theater. I think IMAX and the holiday will save it from an already terrible drop this weekend.

A Beautiful Life got downsized. Unfortunately, it was the theater's second choice of keeping it as a holdover so Pirates got the screens over it. I don't think it will make it to a 2 multiplier.

The Other Woman/Kidnapped got clobbered.

Updated June 2 Predictions:

X-Men: First Class - $1,300,000
The Hangover 2 - $725,000
Pirates 4 - -66%
A Beautiful Life - -63%
Kidnapped - -85%

IMAX schedule (so far):

6/9 - Super 8
6/29 - Transformers 3
7/14 - Harry Potter 7-2
8/11 - Cars 2
10/6 - Real Steel
10/20 - Contagion
12/15 - Mission Impossible 4
12/22 - The Adventures of Tintin

Hmm so you believe Pirates will have a good hold due to IMAX even when it is loosing 75% of its showing...that's nice. HK is well-known for brutal drops and considering the competition I expect Pirates to tumble a little higher there.

I never said it would have a good hold. What I meant was that IMAX and holiday will save it from dropping even uglier. It only lost 75% of it showings from 1 theater. I only wanted to highlight how extraordinary that is given that Pirates is a monster here. Other theaters aren't as harsh as APM and is only cutting half its showtimes.

There is a considerable overlap of target demos between X-Men and Hangover 2. Both are going after the 80's generation.

X-Men: First Class will be the more frontloaded of the two given its fan base. I expect it to post a very small drop-off (due to franchise fatigue) from the last movie in the franchise in OW (Wolverine made about US$1.1 million OW.)

Theater chains are pretty confident in The Hangover 2 as we can see some have given it 2 screens. But historically, this frame has not been known to be big. So I'm not expecting a breakout performance. Also, X-Men will provide direct competition for its core audiences.

My predictions:

X-Men: First Class OW - US$1,010,000
The Hangover 2 OW - US$520,000

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		June 2
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	X-Men: First Class	--	10303	--
2	Hangover 2	--	5740	--
3	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	11387	3424	-69.9%
4	A Beautiful Life	1710	866	-49.4%
5	Let The Wind Carry Me	--	313	--

Very good for both. I expect X-Men to climb into the 25-30k range while Hangover 2 could see a lot of walk-ins...maybe 20-25k. Deep drop for Pirates 4 although Sunday will soften the weekend blow.

A Beautiful Life didn't do too badly but screens this weekend most likely will go to the duo openers/Pirates. X-Men is a weekend movie while Hangover will get screens due to the strength of its Thursday/Friday.

Good for holdovers...I did expect Pirates to drop heavily specially with the deadly duo releasing. Pirates actually had a lucky pass with KFP2 not releasing there last weekend.

May 26 weekend:

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Ti Walt Disney Int'l $1,150,927 2 44 $26,157 -54 $4,617,145
2. A Beautiful Life Media Asia $194,504 1 29 $6,707 0 $254,946
3. Other Woman, The Intercontinental $91,767 1 13 $7,059 0 $116,147
4. Fast Five Universal Int'l $89,412 4 34 $2,630 -45 $1,765,686
5. 3-D Sex and Zen: Extreme Ecstasy Newport Ent. $73,021 7 15 $4,868 -22 $5,007,921
6. Kidnapped Edko $71,420 1 18 $3,968 0 $91,102
7. Detective 2, The Gala Films $55,624 3 35 $1,589 -64 $763,781
8. Thor Paramount Int'l $10,879 5 11 $989 -56 $2,491,732
9. Let The Wind Carry Me To Be Determined $10,077 1 2 $5,039 0 $13,828
10. Priest Sony Int'l $9,496 3 13 $730 -87 $522,262

Not much to report except Sex & Zen passed 5m on Wednesday and that Pirates drop includes last Wednesday's previews.



There are several reasons why KFP2 wasn't released here last weekend which will be explained in my next preview.

	Thursday adm.			June 2
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	X-Men: First Class	--	32105	--
2	Hangover 2	--	15379	--
3	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	17653	5760	-67.4%
4	A Beautiful Life	5384	2783	-48.3%
5	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D	--	763	--

Admission increases for the top 4 (pre-sales to finals):

211.6%
167.9%
68.2%
221.4%

Insane for X-Men. I thought Hangover 2 would be the more popular choice for walk-ins but I guess Hangover 2 is more of a friends movie than it is a couples' movie. Today was also a hot day so that played a huge factor. That should translate to about $185,000 in gross. Hangover 2 should land just over $90,000 today. Both should play great through the weekend.

Pirates may drop less than 65% if it keeps it up. It will play very strongly on Saturday/Sunday. A Beautiful Life looks good now but Hangover 2/X-Men/Pirates will take most if not all screens on Saturday/Sunday. The scheduling may not be able to save what will be solid Thursday/Friday week-to-week holds. Unbelievable run for Sex.

	Friday adm.	(so far)			June 3
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	X-Men: First Class	--	12555	--	+21.9%
2	Hangover 2	--	8217	--	+43.2%
3	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	13865	4226	-69.5%	+23.4%
4	A Beautiful Life	2066	1391	-32.7%	+60.6%
5	The Other Woman	1003	353	-64.8%	+12.8%

X-Men may hit 45k today. Hangover 2 could see 30k if the "Friday Hangover" party effect takes shape. Weekend will be very important for Pirates. It's gotten the screens...now it has to deliver. A Beautiful Life will see a very high drop on Saturday...possibly 75%. Sunday could be a little bit better since it will be inflated due to the Monday holiday and last Sunday it decreased from Saturday.

Saturday update

X-Men is looking strong. Hangover looks like it's starting to lag behind.