80m flat opening

It could see this easily getting over 80 opening, or it could have a sub 50 opening. We will find out May 8th

No one else raised predictions since November?

I have always said $50 OW and will remain that way until May

I'm pretty sure a lot have increased their low predictions, especially if you go even further back than November. I always believed in the project to reinvigorate the franchise since J.J. Abrams got on board.

If this gets over $100 million in its opening weekend. It would be one of the biggest shocks in film history

I think that is an exaggeration, it wouldn't be THAT shocking, star trek was wildly popular in its' heyday and it has had the best marketing of any film this summer, and it has by far the most fanboy and online interest according to polls and everything. It wouldn't be as shocking, to me, as taking making around 150 million dollars.

Maybe not to you and me. To a lot of people it would be shocking

100 million opening is not happening for this movie. This does NOT have as wide as appeal as say, Iron Man. It just doesn't. Star Trek was never as big as Star Wars (for movies), and Star Wars couldn't even top 100 million opening until ROTS. J.J. Abrams is definitely reviving this franchise, but this should be more like a Batman Begins scenario. It might be good for 70-80 million, if very lucky.

It's easy to say that after the fact. Most people expected something like $80m for the IRON MAN opening:

$83m BOG
$82m MTC
$76.1m LEE
$78.8m BOM average

STAR TREK will be a multi-generational experience as parents can bring their kids AND the grandparents to the movies...

Well I'm comparing this to how well Iron Man did, not to how well it was tracking pre-opening. I just don't think the buzz for Star Trek is as high as Iron Man was last year outside the internet demographic.

lol this is being compared to Iron Man now?

I'll definitely admit that it'll do much better than I guessed last year (definitely had it under $30m opening and $80m total). It should be a hit, with a $50-55m opening, maybe as high as $60-65m if marketing is outstanding in April/May. But let's be serious, this has a better chance of opening to $20m than $100m.

I was just giving the believers something to think about, because Iron Man did about a 100 million opening last year, so basically, we need to draw in an audience as wide as that, which of course I don't feel is happening for Star Trek, at least for this first reboot.

Sure, but right now we're tracking STAR TREK pre-opening and my guess is that the average prediction right now should fall somewhere between $50m-60m with seven more weeks to go...

Yeah, I know, and it's a legit comparison that Star Trek can't make anywhere close to Iron Man.

I think $50-$60m would be pretty amazing for it. Its only a followup that hase a chance at bigger numbers (if this one is good) like TDK and QoS.

$50 million. $150 million total if it's good.

when should tracking come out for this film?

Most of the people I've talked to about this seem to express indifference to the project, saying that they've never really been into Star Trek. This definitely lessens the possibility of a strong-strong opening (Barring excellent marketing in the final weeks), but it does make a Batman Begins/Casino Royale-like run all the more possible (After the initial frontloading). Still not entirely sure how to predict this.

This really should have been the May opener.

I can't believe I joined the NO side of this club. I dodn't even remember doing it, heh. I think I might join the YES side if it were open now even if I'm not predicting $100m just for the hell of it.

I think a $70m opening is about guaranteed. I think the marketing for this is and will continue to be quite stellar. Everything is run by a billion different people. Everything must be personally approved by JJ. The trailer definitely worked and I'm almost positive this will open higher than Wolverine.

I can see midnights reaching around $7m with an opening day of $30m+ with those midnights but less than $40m. Saturday would be the big test. I'm going with an opening weekend of $82 million for now.

No remains, the wknd of release ensure the film does not even top 90m, i expect a considerable un-trek-like multiplier around 3.0-3.5

I say the 55m for watchmen is an absolute floor for this OW. It has as much of a core fanbase, even better marketing, and more ability to appeal to mainstream viewers, saying nothing of the fact that it is 30 minutes shorter and carries a light PG-13 rating. It's still early to be saying much, IMO, but as the open draws nearer I see more people excepting this movie, and even if it doesn't hit 100m open, it should at least get to 75m.

Watchmen also has its cast signed for a sequel.

Fingers crossed.

The bolded above illustrates how guaranteed an 80m+ wknd is.