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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22214
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yes, but idont see you rubbing it in bjs face how he got almost every aspect of pirates 2's box office wrong, either.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:05 am |
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Cotton
Some days I'm a super bitch
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 7:22 pm
Posts: 6645
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I can't wait until tomorrow, so you guys can have a new set of numbers to base the same arguments around!
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:06 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
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excel wrote: yes, but idont see you rubbing it in bjs face how he got almost every aspect of pirates 2's box office wrong, either. Umm... he nailed the opening... and at least he had reasonable predictions unlike everyone predicting below $400 mil... _________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:07 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22214
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did he? he predicted 58 million day, 153 weekend. it got 55, 135.
i predicted 22.5million opening day and 65 million weekend. it got 21 and 52.5
whose closer?
and chip, c'mon dude. how can you call a 588 million prediction more reasonable then a 390 million one?
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:15 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
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excel wrote: did he? he predicted 58 million day, 153 weekend. it got 55, 135.
i predicted 22.5million opening day and 65 million weekend. it got 21 and 52.5
whose closer?
and chip, c'mon dude. how can you call a 588 million prediction more reasonable then a 390 million one? BJ:
Opening Weekend- 88%
Opening Day- 95%
You:
Opening Weekend- 81%
Opening Day- 93%
He was. _________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:19 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22214
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combined i was by 14, he was off by 21 :o
and again, hows 588 more reasonable then 390??????
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:22 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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excel wrote: combined i was by 14, he was off by 21 :o He was closer percentage wise. That's like saying a $2.0 mil predict for a movie that makes $1.0 mil is better than a $60 mil predict for a movie that makes $55 mil. Quote: and again, hows 588 more reasonable then 390?????? Because it's gauranteed to PASS $390 mil. There is still ALOT of time for Pirates2 to make $588 mil... it probably won't... but at least it's not gauranteed to not get there. _________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:26 am |
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mdana
Veteran
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:07 pm
Posts: 3004
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 ChipMunky wrote: Mdana...
If you will...
Can you perhaps give day by day projections for Pirates until the end of it's run to justify your thinking?
Instead of just multiplying percentages from OTHER movies that in NO WAY correlate to Pirates2 at all You have already stated I can't meet your requirements, but I will indulge you in this futile exercise.
Past is Prologue and the quicker you learn that, the better off you will be.
As I stated to Dr. Lector my daily numbers have been too high.
My original projection for Thurs. and Fri. was based on SM2, which as we all know has no correlation to POTC 2. Why? -because that's what Chip Munky wrote.
Thur-$6.13m (-5%)
Friday-$8.43m (+37.5%)
Sat-$10.86m(+29%)
Sun-$8.58m (-21%)
Weekend total $27.87m (-55.3%)
It will be $3.1m higher than SM2's third weekend. If it had the same multiplier as SM2 from that point forward it would be at $391m.
POTC 2's 2nd weekend multiplier was 3.36 against 2 new openers. SM 2's 2nd weekend was 3.26 against 3 openers. SM 2's 3rd weekend was 3.48 against 2 openers. I project POTC 2's 3rd weekend multiplier to be 3.3, which seems so wrong. So, my numbers must be wrong.
It will be close to Shrek 2's total after its third weekend.
How about we just see how this weekend plays out. If I am close I'll do so more numbers. If I am off, you just ignore my insane ramblings.
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:28 am |
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choubachou
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:13 pm
Posts: 1796
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mdana wrote: MikeQ. wrote:
lol. No flippin' way. You just spent pages upon pages telling us how it won't pass $400 million, but now you refuse to take the bet? You are not confident in your own analysis/prediction at all.
PEACE, Mike.
Can you direct me to that specific post. Mike stating that $400m is not a lock, and that $400m is still possible is not the same as stating it won't pass $400m. What I was arguing is that it has to meet certain conditions to pass it. It hasn't so far, but that doesn't mean it won't in the future. I am pretty sure of the odds, but what I am stating may not happen, is something that is more than likely to happen. It it was a real bet, I would get odds and you are asking to make an even money bet on something that is not even money. I feel confident of the odds, but I don't win anything, so I it is not worth making the bet. I make actual bets, and I am not getting the action I feel the bet deserves, so I am not taking the bet. You are asking me to meet on your terms and that is a sucker bet for your interests. So, if this was a real bet you would have to give at least 3/2 odds. That being stated, I don't really care at this point. I have convinced myself that it is more likely than not that it won't reach $400m. So, I bet it doesn't make $400m 
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:34 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
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ChipMunky wrote: excel wrote: combined i was by 14, he was off by 21 :o He was closer percentage wise. That's like saying a $2.0 mil predict for a movie that makes $1.0 mil is better than a $60 mil predict for a movie that makes $55 mil. Quote: and again, hows 588 more reasonable then 390?????? Because it's gauranteed to PASS $390 mil. There is still ALOT of time for Pirates2 to make $588 mil... it probably won't... but at least it's not gauranteed to not get there. so if i predicted 1 billion for pirates, itd be more reasonable then a 390 millipon prediction? of course. read the top part of your post. pirates is gonna struggle to get 425. you say "probably wont get 588". thats if you have no common sense. common sense would say 390 is more then reasonable the 588 and most here would agree. use your % thingie, and 390 would maul 580 as pirates wont get anywhere near the 485 mdian of the 2. so you kinda contradicted yourself anyways. _________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:39 am |
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mdana
Veteran
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:07 pm
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choubachou wrote: mdana wrote: MikeQ. wrote:
lol. No flippin' way. You just spent pages upon pages telling us how it won't pass $400 million, but now you refuse to take the bet? You are not confident in your own analysis/prediction at all.
PEACE, Mike.
Can you direct me to that specific post. Mike stating that $400m is not a lock, and that $400m is still possible is not the same as stating it won't pass $400m. What I was arguing is that it has to meet certain conditions to pass it. It hasn't so far, but that doesn't mean it won't in the future. I am pretty sure of the odds, but what I am stating may not happen, is something that is more than likely to happen. It it was a real bet, I would get odds and you are asking to make an even money bet on something that is not even money. I feel confident of the odds, but I don't win anything, so I it is not worth making the bet. I make actual bets, and I am not getting the action I feel the bet deserves, so I am not taking the bet. You are asking me to meet on your terms and that is a sucker bet for your interests. So, if this was a real bet you would have to give at least 3/2 odds. That being stated, I don't really care at this point. I have convinced myself that it is more likely than not that it won't reach $400m. So, I bet it doesn't make $400m Just ignore everything else. I am taking the bet it doesn't reach $400m.
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:40 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
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theres a good chance itl lget 400, but this weekend a make or break.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:41 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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excel wrote: yes, but idont see you rubbing it in bjs face how he got almost every aspect of pirates 2's box office wrong, either. BJ is BJ. His predictions are always illogical and based on nothing but instinct. All he did for the past year was "bleh 500m+  " over and over again.
You tortured us with illogical reasoning and made laughable guarantees. Therefore, it's more fun to laugh at you.
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:41 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
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excel... Pirates is not at the end of it's run... you don't know how high it's going... the only thing you do know is that it will blow by $390 mil.
Who knows? Maybe it will get up to $500 mil and then BJ will be ALOT closer percentage wise than you. Again.
If it doesn't break $489 mil then you will be closer. And your ONE prediction will be more reasonable.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:44 am |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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mdana, why are you using the number of openers instead of their impact on the uber blockbuster's audience and their weekend gross. It's kinda unfair to say that Pirates will have a considerably low IM than Spider-Man 2's 3rd weekend because it faces 4 openers while Spider-Man 2 faced 2.
Also, consider this
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/char ... -22&p=.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/char ... -23&p=.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/char ... -18&p=.htm
Notice how the Friday increases of movies that have been in theaters for more than 2 weeks. Why am I making this as a comparison?
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/char ... -20&p=.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/char ... -21&p=.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/char ... -24&p=.htm
This exact Wednesday for the year apparently has a big impact on movies. Despite not having a rebound or increase today, Pirates should have a considerably higher Friday than expected. _________________
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:48 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
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plan b.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:51 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Good find, Eventine. At least you're showing some actual facts instead of speculations ("if Wednesday was this bad, every day from this point on will be just as bad!"). Most people have ignored that all the films dropped more than expected.
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:55 am |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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There's no plan b, excel. The movie will still win the domestic crown by at least $100 million. Just pointing out something.  _________________
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:55 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
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its plan b for how it will still get 400 million though theres a big chance it wont
ane yes zing, i thinklots of films will actually increase today which would bold well for the weekend _________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:58 am |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
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Big chance it won't get $400 million?  That's almost as bad your Superman Returns prediction. :wink: _________________
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 3:13 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22214
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yeah its true. spiderman only got it due to super inflated weekends, well know this weekend wether pirates 2 gets the same efefct. if it doent =BYEBYEBYE BITCH !
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 3:18 am |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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Bullshit. Spider-Man's 2nd weekend was $88 million. Pirates only needs $4 million today to match that. You can't compare May movies to July movies by just weekends and weekdays. You compare weeks.
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 3:26 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22214
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like u wood know _________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 3:28 am |
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mdana
Veteran
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:07 pm
Posts: 3004
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I have looked at all those dates. That is what I am basing it on. Charlie's 2nd Friday, increase 40%, 3rd Friday 30%. POTC's 2nd Friday, increase 63%, 3rd Friday 41%. What exactly, am I missing?
Charlie's IM 2nd weekend against 4 openers-3.11, Charlie's IM 3rd weekend against 3 openers 3.24
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 4:54 am |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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I'm talking more of movies released for more a 14 days that had an increase on those exact Fridays. Movies on their 8th days do not count. Charlie's 3rd Friday doesn't count either because that's not the Friday we're talking about. We're discussing this exact Friday of the past 3 years. Look at Spider-Man 2's, Fantastic Four's and Terminator 3's increase, instead. I'm not saying Pirates will follow suit because there are four new openers, but you're saying Pirates will have a 35% increase on Friday, which is just off the mark.
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| Fri Jul 21, 2006 6:05 am |
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