Weekend Summary
Oct. 9-10, 2010



1. Umizaru: The Last Message Toho $6,566,905 4 467 $14,601 -7 $69,627,292
2. Knight & Day Fox $6,015,252 1 589 $10,212 0 $6,015,252
3. The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Ohoku) Asmik Ace $2,767,306 2 312 $8,867 -23 $13,003,316
4. Resident Evil: Afterlife Sony Int'l $2,240,001 5 337 $6,647 -27 $50,103,510
5. Thirteen Assassins Toho $1,717,113 3 312 $5,503 -15 $12,795,735
6. From Me to You (Kimi ni Todoke) Toho $1,709,911 3 285 $6,000 -18 $11,004,336
7. Villain Toho $712,583 5 231 $3,085 -23 $20,304,215
8. Mobile Suit Gundam 00 - Awakening of the Trailblazer Shochiku $463,366 4 88 $5,266 -30 $7,839,642
9. Legend Of The Guardians: Owls Of Ga'Hoole Warner Bros. Int'l $404,642 2 421 $961 -27 $1,599,996
10. Beck Shochiku $351,051 6 311 $1,129 -37 $20,286,341


Umizaru 3 is well on it's way for over $100 million. But it's still way too early in it's run to give an accurate projected range from there. I will say though, with Harry Potter no longer being in 3D, Umizaru 3's potential final gross increases significantly. With the Holiday Monday included, the total comes to almost $74 million.

Knight & Day has an excellent opening, even if previews are included. It's looking at a total of $25 million, maybe $30 million if WOM is at least average. With the Holiday Monday included, the total comes to just over $8 million. Hmm, $30 million should be likely thinking it over.

Ohoku holds very well it's second weekend. The drop is a little deflated due to the early Friday opening last weekend, however. The film is aiming for a $30 million total.

Resident Evil IV clears $50 million after five weeks in release. It lost a hefty amount of screens this weekend, but managed a great holds anyway. With the Holiday Monday included, the total is $52 million.

Thirteen Assassins pulls ahead of Kimi ni Todoke during their third weekend in release. The two films have been neck and neck since they opened against one another, but the weekdays are giving Thirteen Assassins the edge in totals.

Villain is still holding strong after 6 weeks, topping $20 million. The film should finish with about $23/24 million giving it a multiplier of about 9.

Mobile Suit Gundam 00 surprisingly stays in the Top 10 this weekend. The pta is still strong, and $10 million stills looks good as the final total. Overall, a great run in limited release.

Legend of the Guardians has received positive reviews, so WOM may have helped it this weekend given the good second weekend drop. It's still a huge bomb regardless, with the big screen count WB gave it. Note, not all 3D films are guaranteed hits. Just because the big event films are grossing massive numbers, doesn't mean people are going to care about non-Pixar foreign animated movies all of a sudden.

And Beck is now nearly the end of it's good run, and should become Shochiku's biggest release of the year crawling past Younger Brother's $21 million total.

Beauty and the Beast 3D opened at No.13 with a gross close to $250,000 on 58 screens.

Top 20 Opening Weekends of 2010 by Gross




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Top 20 Opening Weekends of 2010 by Admissions




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Top 20 Films of 2010 by Gross




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Top 20 Films of 2010 by Admissions




New Entries - Knight & Day makes the Top 20 Opening Weekends by Gross and Admissions Charts.
i - still playing

The official blog for Hiromasa Yonebayashi and Studio Ghibli's Karigurashi no Arrietty film has announced on Tuesday that the film has been seen over 7.5 million times.

This is the all-time record for a Japanese film directed by a first-time director. Ghibli co-founder Hayao Miyazaki planned and wrote this film, which is based on The Borrowers (Yukashita no Kobito-tachi) novel by the late English author Mary Norton.

Arrietty is only the fourth feature film not directed by Miyazaki or his mentor and Ghibli co-founder Isao Takahata. The other films are Whisper of the Heart (Yoshifumi Kondô), The Cat Returns (Hiroyuki Morita), and Tales from Earthsea (Goro Miyazaki). (Tomomi Mochizuki directed the television special Ocean Waves in 1993.)

http://blog.karigurashi.jp/index.php?UID=1286869918

The admission number is about 7.53 million (making it the second most attended film of the year behind Avatar), and I've updated that in the charts above, but felt like posting this since it's a record for a first time director. Congrats to Hiromasa Yonebayashi for the achievement.

The Borrower Arrietty should finish with about 7.7/7.8 million admissions (Y9.3 billion/$113/114 million) before it leaves theaters. Adding to it's huge success, it's the only film that has grossed over $100 million ((or will gross, Umizaru 3) without the help of 3D.

Weekend Forecast
Oct. 16-17, 2010



1 1 Umizaru 3: The Last Message (Toho) 5
2 2 Knight & Day (Fox) 2
3 N The Expendables (Syoutiku) 1
4 N The Incite Mill: 7-Day Death Game (WB) 1
5 3 The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Ohoku) (Asmik Ace) 3
6 4 Resident Evil IV: Afterlife (Sony) 6
7 6 From Me to You (Kimi ni Todoke) (Toho) 4
8 5 Thirteen Assassins (Toho) 4
9 N Sakuradamon-gai no Hen (TOEI) 1
10 7 Villain (Toho) 6

The top two films will remain on top again this weekend. Umizaru 3 is looking to pass $80 million (probably $82/$83 million) this weekend. I wonder if it can cross $100 million before the end of the month. Knight & Day should be close to a $15 million total after this weekend.

The Expendables is going to see a solid opening, $3/$3.5 million looks good.

7-Day Death Game should open a little over $2 million.

Sakuradamon-gai no Hen is targeting a similar age group as Thirteen Assassins, so the latter looks to fall behind Kimi ni Todoke this weekend.

And yes, Avatar: Special Edition is being released this weekend, but it's being given a very limited release and isn't likely to open in the Top 10. With Umizaru 3, Resident Evil IV, Owls of Ga'Hoole, and Beauty and the Beast all in release right now, there just doesn't appear to be many 3D screens left. All four current 3D releases are being screened on approx. 700 3D screens, which is definitely near max capacity.

And there are three more 3D films coming out this month, and two in November.

I will be away starting tomorrow morning, so don't expect any updates for a few days.

By just skimming sites this hour, it appears many films this weekend experienced some sharp drops after last weekend's great holds (partly due to last Monday's holiday).

Top Attended Films By Locations (TOHO, WARNER, SHIKOKU)

TOHO

1. Umizaru 3: The Last Message (Toho) 5
2. Knight & Day (Fox) 2
3. The Incite Mill: 7-Day Death Game (WB) 1
4. The Expendables (Syoutiku) 1
5. The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Ohoku) (Asmik Ace) 3
6. From Me to You (Kimi ni Todoke) (Toho) 4
7. Sakuradamon-gai no Hen (TOEI) 1
8. Thirteen Assassins (Toho) 4
9. Resident Evil IV: Afterlife (Sony) 6
10. Senna (Toho/Towa) 2

http://www.tohotheater.jp/index.html

The Expendables is going to miss a $3 million opening, and probably a $10 million total afterall.

SHIKOKU

1. Knight & Day (Fox) 2
2. Umizaru 3: The Last Message (Toho) 5
3. The Incite Mill: 7-Day Death Game (WB) 1
4. The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Ohoku) (Asmik Ace) 3
5. The Expendables (Syoutiku) 1
6. Sakuradamon-gai no Hen (TOEI) 1
7. From Me to You (Kimi ni Todoke) (Toho) 4
8. Resident Evil IV: Afterlife (Sony) 6
9. You Are Umasou (Teatoru) 1
10. Thirteen Assassins (Toho) 4

http://www.shikoku-np.co.jp/cinema/ranking/

In particular, Resident Evil IV and Thirteen Assassins look to have had the biggest drops this weekend.

WARNER

1. Umizaru 3: The Last Message (Toho) 5
2. Knight & Day (Fox) 2
3. The Incite Mill: 7-Day Death Game (WB) 1
4. The Expendables (Syoutiku) 1
5. The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Ohoku) (Asmik Ace) 3

http://www.warnermycal.com/


The National Top 10 will be available early morning.

Weekend Rankings
Oct. 16-17, 2010



1. Umizaru 3: The Last Message (Toho) 5
2. Knight & Day (Fox) 2
3. The Incite Mill: 7-Day Death Game (WB) 1
4. The Expendables (Syoutiku) 1
5. The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Ohoku) (Asmik Ace) 3
6. Sakuradamon-gai no Hen (TOEI) 1
7. From Me to You (Kimi ni Todoke) (Toho) 4
8. Resident Evil IV: Afterlife (Sony) 6
9. Thirteen Assassins (Toho) 4
10. You Are Umasou (Teatoru) 1


Umizaru 3 has exceeded 4.3 million admissions, for almost Y6.6 billion ($81 million) after 5 weeks in release.

Knight & Day reached Y1.1 billion (about $14 million) after two weeks in release.

7-Day Death Game opens to Y205,737,600 ($2.5 million) with 151,558 admissions.

The Expendables opens to Y176,523,900 ($2.2 million) with 138,299 admissions.

Sakuradamon-gai no Hen opens to Y91,726,200 ($1.1 million) with 80,390 admissions.

Umizaru 3 is huge, looks like it will probably surpass The Borrower Arrietty and Toy Story 3, and now that Harry Potter is not longer in 3D, it has more chance to gross more money
Corpe, which is the next big 3D movie to come out there and when

Toy Story 3 is probably a little out of reach, but The Borrower Arrietty is possible. I don't think it'll beat either though. It won't have the later legs the Summer releases had. I'm predicting a total of about Y8.5 billion ($105 million) right now, but it's still early in the film's run.

The next major 3D release is Tron: Legacy (12/17). Other 3D releases (before 2011) include: Despicable Me (10/29), Saw 7 (10/30), Garo: Red Requiem (10/30), Battle Royale (re-release) (11/21), Shrek 4 (12/18), and a small horror film I forget the title of.

Narnia 3 has been moved out of the Holidays to the last weekend of February.

Films distributed by Toho earned Y4.6 billion ($56.5 million) for the month of September, up 44% over last September.

So far for 2010, Toho has earned approx. Y50.4 billion ($619.5 million).*

Toho earned Y73.91b ($820.8m) in 2008, a record. And in 2009, Toho earned Y65.5b ($724.3m) for just over 1/3 of the entire market.

*Total does not include co-distribution or foreign distributed films.

Umizaru 3: The Last Message:
2day total - Y956,960,566 ($11.3m), 612,211 admissions
3day total - Y1,430,954,460 ($16.7m), 939,950 admissions (Holiday Monday)
6day total - Y2.25b ($26.7m), 1.5m admissions
9day total - Y3,205,745,040 ($38.1m), 2,113,264 admissions
16day total - Y4,684,973,509 ($56.3m), 3,123,278 admissions
23day total - Y5,774,373,324 ($69.7m), 3.85m admissions
24day total - Y6,016,949,020 (73.7m), 4,012,783 admissions (Holiday Monday)
30day total - Y6.55b ($80.5m), 4.35m admissions*


Comparison with the Summer 2010 Big 3

Bayside Shakedown 3: 30day total - Y5,251,455,362 ($60,759,382), 4m admissions
The Borrower Arrietty: 30day total - Y6,465,551,370 ($75,071,699), 5,341,467 admissions
Toy Story 3: 30day total - Y6,659,674,963 ($77,918,221), 4.5m admissions
Umizaru 3: 30day total - Y6.55b ($80.5m), 4.35m admissions*

*estimate

Wow excellent for Umizaru 3.

Corpse how come K&D is so big there. I am a little surprised because it seems that Japan will be its best market OS in terms of holds and gross as well.

Since the charts are updated only for Top 10 do you know if BS3, TBA and TS3 are playing in how many theaters now (if they are playing at all)?

Tom Cruise has always been a formidable draw in Japan. That's all.

What Lecter said about Knight & Day. Tom Cruise is one of the bigger foreign draws. Probably second only to Johnny Depp I'd wager.

Bayside Shakedown 3 is still playing at Toho locations, but I don't have an exact number of screens. I'll make an update about it when possible.

The Borrower Arrietty is still playing on many screens, still over 300 with box office updates being frequent. It's close to Y9.15 billion ($112.5 million), 7.6 million admissions now. It will remain in release until year end, or a little into 2011 if it follows past Summer Ghibli releases.

Toy Story 3, however, is no longer playing. It's been out of theaters now for two weeks.

Updated with partial actuals,


Top 20 Opening Weekends of 2010 by Gross




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Top 20 Opening Weekends of 2010 by Admissions




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Top 20 Films of 2010 by Gross




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Top 20 Films of 2010 by Admissions




New Entries
i - still playing

Weekend Summary
Oct. 16-17, 2010



1. Umizaru: The Last Message Toho $3,197,506 5 467 $6,847 -52 $80,785,243
2. Knight And Day Fox Int'l $2,662,510 2 590 $4,513 -56 $14,610,190
3. The Incite Mill: 7-Day Death Game Warner Bros. Int'l $2,530,572 1 278 $9,103 0 $2,530,572
4. Expendables, The Shochiku $2,171,244 1 280 $7,754 0 $2,171,244
5. The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Ohoku) Asmik Ace $1,692,375 3 312 $5,424 -39 $18,611,027
6. Sakuradamongai No Hen TOEI $1,128,232 1 296 $3,812 0 $1,128,232
7. From Me to You (Kimi ni Todoke) Toho $1,112,203 4 285 $3,902 -36 $14,193,596
8. Resident Evil: Afterlife Sony Int'l $852,442 6 434 $1,964 -62 $54,413,822
9. Thirteen Assassins Toho $706,161 4 312 $2,263 -59 $15,636,908
10. You are Umasou Tokyo Theaters Co.,Inc. $370,048 1 162 $2,284 0 $370,048


Harsh drops after last Monday's Holiday.

Umizaru 3 soars over $80 million, topping the Box Office for the fifth straight week. The film is still on target for over $100 million.

Knight and Day is still doing well, with $25-30 million looking like a good total range. That'd be good enough to become the biggest Hollywood film of the year (not in 3D) behind Inception.

The Incite Mill surprises as the top opener this weekend. A total in the low/mid teens is likely.

The Expendables opens a little less than expected, and is going to struggle to a $10 million total.

Ohoku has one of the better holds this weekend, now the biggest Asmik Ace release of the year. The film should finish close to $30 million.

Sakuradamongai No Hen debuted slightly better than projected. A total of $5-6 million here for TOEI.

Kimi ni Todoke has the best hold in the Top 10 to close the total gap between it and Thirteen Assassins. $20 million looks possible once again.

Resident Evil IV drops big with some screen loss, and isn't going to reach $60 million with several smaller 3D releases coming up, but a total of $57-58 million is well beyond the highest of expectations.

Thirteen Assassins also drops big with fairly direct competition from Sakuradamongai No Hen, no longer being the only older themed film in release. $20 million is the goal.

You are Umasou has an average debut, but nothing more was going to happen.

Avatar: Special Edition opened to 20 million yen, or about $250,000 in limited release. About Y100 million (likely total) might be enough to edge it past Ponyo on a Cliff to make it the 8th biggest film in Yen. Ponyo on a Cliff finished with Y15.5 billion, while Avatar grossed Y15.4 billion.

Hmm, that's actually quite disappointing for The Expendables.

Updated with Actuals (notes below).

Top 20 Opening Weekends of 2010 by Gross




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Top 20 Opening Weekends of 2010 by Admissions




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Top 20 Films of 2010 by Gross




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Top 20 Films of 2010 by Admissions




New Entries
i - still playing


Notes:

-Umizaru 3 is the second fastest film of the year to clear $80 million, behind Alice in Wonderland.

-Resident Evil IV passes Up to become the 8th biggest film of 2010 in USD. Depending on screen loss to the 3D releases over the next few weeks, it has a solid shot at becoming the 7th biggest film of 2010 in USD.

-Avatar's actual final gross data (in Yen) has been released and updated in the charts. The film (Special Edition) generated Y21,078,400 ($259,497) with 12,071 admissions on 48 screens this weekend. I added this past weekend's gross to the last gross figure before it left theaters mid-April earlier this year.

There are only six weekends left in Japan's Box Office Calendar Year, and any film released in December are classified as a 2011 film.

The Motion Picture Association of Japan, Inc. only includes films that grossed 1 billion or more Yen in their yearly Box Office Anaysis charts.

And here is how 2010 is faring so far (films in italics are still in release),


[JAPANESE FILMS]

1. The Borrower Arrietty - Y9.1
2. Bayside Shakedown 3: Set The Guys Loose! - Y7.2
3. Umizaru 3: The Last Message - Y6.6
4. One Piece Film Strong World - Y5.0
5. Pokemon 13: Diamond & Pearl Ruler of Illusions - Zoroark - Y4.1
6. Nodame Cantabile: The Final Score, Part I - Y4.1
7. Nodame Cantabile: The Final Score, Part II - Y3.9
8. Confessions - Y3.9
9. Detective Conan 14: Lost Ship in the Sky - Y3.3
10. Doraemon 30: Nobita's South Sea Adventure - Y3.1
11. Flowering Dogwood - Y2.7
12. Liar Game: The Final Stage - Y2.4
13. Younger Brother - Y2.0
14. Trick the Movie: Psychic Battle Royale - Y1.9
15. Villain - Y1.7
16. Beck - Y1.7
17. Ohoku - Y1.5
18. Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider W & Dikeido - Y1.5
19. Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider Double & Decade Forever A-Z - Y1.5
20. Thirteen Assassins - Y1.2
21. Kimi ni Todoke - Y1.2
22. Golden Slumber - Y1.1
23. Sayonaraitsu - Y1.1
24. Crayon Shin-chan - Y1.1
25. Precure All Stars DX2 - Y1
26. Gekijouban Gintama: Shin'yaku benizakura hen - Y1

Total - Y74.9 (Y2.9 avg.)




[IMPORTED FILMS]

1. Avatar - Y15.4
2. Alice in Wonderland - Y11.8
3. Toy Story 3 - Y10.7
4. Up - Y4.8
5. Resident Evil IV: Afterlife - Y4.4
6. Inception - Y3.5
7. Oceans - Y2.4
8. Sherlock Holmes - Y2.3
9. Salt - Y1.9
10. Sex and the City 2 - Y1.8
11. Shutter Island - Y1.7
12. Clash of the Titans - Y1.5
13. The Karate Kid - Y1.4
14. Percy Jackson and the Olympians - Y1.3
15. Iron Man 2 - Y1.2
16. Knight and Day - Y1.2
17. The Sorcerer's Apprentice - Y1

Total - Y68.1 (Y4.0 avg.)


-All figures are rounded until all final grosses are available.

Compared to previous years - http://www.eiren.org/boxoffice_e/index.html


There are a few films that may have reached 1 billion (where tracking ended around 900 million), so there may be one or two more Japanese/Imported films that will be included later on.

And it looks like it'll come down to the end to see if 2010 can beat 2009 in Japanese and Imported Films that grossed 1 billion or more. Total grosses will beat 2010 by comfortable margins.

Weekend Forecast
Oct. 23-24, 2010



1 1 Umizaru 3: The Last Message (Toho) 6
2 2 Knight and Day (Fox) 3
3 3 The Incite Mill: 7-Day Death Game (WB) 2
4 5 The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Ohoku) (Asmik Ace) 4
5 N Lightning Cherry Blossom (Raiou) (Toho) 1
6 4 The Expendables (Shochiku) 2
7 7 From Me to You (Kimi ni Todoke) (Toho) 5
8 6 Sakuradamongai No Hen (TOEI) 2
9 8 Resident Evil IV: Afterlife (Sony) 7
10 9 Thirteen Assassins (Toho) 5

Nothing much to talk about here.

Umizaru 3 will make it six weeks on top, crossing $85 million, and we have just one wide opener.


Films That Spent Multiple Weeks At No.1 of 2010

Avatar (Fox) - 10 weeks (consecutive)
Alice in Wonderland (Disney) - 7 weeks (consecutive)
Umizaru 3: The Last Message (Toho) - 5 weeks (consecutive)
Doraemon 30: Nobita's South Sea Adventure (Toho) - 5 weeks (consecutive)
Confessions (Toho) - 4 weeks (consecutive)
Toy Story 3 (Disney) - 4 weeks (non-consecutive)
One Piece Film Strong World (TOEI) - 2 weeks (consecutive)
Flowering Dogwood (Toho) - 2 weeks (consecutive)

39 out of 46 weeks of Japan's Box Office Year have been repeats, with only 15 different films ranking first - a new record.

Admission drops compared to last Saturday,

Kimi ni Todoke (-17%)
Ohoku (-17%)
Umizaru 3: The Last Message (-20%)
Knight and Day (-23%)
The Incite Mill: 7-Day Death Game (-26%)
Thirteen Assassins (-30%)
Sakuradamongai No Hen (-31%)
The Expendables (-42%)

Weekend admission drops compared to last weekend,

Kimi ni Todoke (-11%)
Umizaru 3: The Last Message (-19%)
Knight and Day (-19%)
The Incite Mill: 7-Day Death Game (-20%)
Ohoku (-23%)
Thirteen Assassins (-27%)
Sakuradamongai No Hen (-28%)
The Expendables (-38%)


It was also reported that Umizaru 3 topped Y6.7 billion (about $83 million) on Friday, 35 days in release. A weekend drop of roughly 20% would give it a little over Y200 million ($2.5/2.7 million or so) for it's sixth weekend, which would bring it very close to Y7 billion ($86 million) after 37 days in release.

Top Attended Films By Locations (TOHO, WARNER, SHIKOKU)

TOHO

1. Umizaru 3: The Last Message (Toho) 6
2. Knight and Day (Fox) 3
3. The Incite Mill: 7-Day Death Game (WB) 2
4. The Expendables (Shochiku) 2
5. The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Ohoku) (Asmik Ace) 4
6. Lightning Cherry Blossom (Raiou) (Toho) 1
7. From Me to You (Kimi ni Todoke) (Toho) 5
8. Sakuradamon-gai no Hen (TOEI) 2
9. Thirteen Assassins (Toho) 5
10. Resident Evil IV: Afterlife (Sony) 7


http://www.tohotheater.jp/index.html

SHIKOKU and WARNER later.

pray for "Kimi ni Todoke" still hold in top ten ><
i hope this film finish close to $20 million