¥1.3B opening weekend possible?

No, but its 3-day total should exceed ¥1.3 billion. Still early, but it looks to be aiming for ¥1.1 billion for the weekend.

Okay, so Saturday only has a few hours left. Looks like it'll manage to edge out Aladdin on the list.

After Friday, this is more or less where I was expecting it to land for the day. A new opening weekend record for an imported animated film remains likely. And the coveted, first time ever accomplishment for an imported animated film, ¥1 billion+ opening weekend is still likely, but it's in that territory of not quite being a 100% guarantee yet, depending on Sunday and where its average ticket price lands.

Running ahead of ALADDIN all day long...

Was Endgame or Fallen Kingdom a three-day opening?

How is the WOM?

With Monday being Marine Day, Sunday should be inflated for all movies. I think a ¥1 billion+ opening weekend is happening for Toy Story 4.

They both opened on Friday, but Friday is counted separately from opening weekends in the market. Opening weekend = Saturday and Sunday only.



Audience scores are averaging 3.5/5. That's lower than the incredibly well-received Toy Story 3, but it's early. WOM is hard to gauge until at least a full week in release due to how Japan is a backloaded market.

Agreed. Holiday Mondays typically provide Sundays with a slight boost since evening/late-night showings are stronger.

Usual Locations (~70% of Market) - Weekend Admissions

Biggest Openers Since 2015:

Saturday Results (~70% of Market):
Tickets Sold/Available Tickets (% Capacity), [Theaters/Showings], Film Title
348,024/605,267 (57.4% capacity), [239/1,676] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017)
345,143/655,976 (52.6% capacity), [249/1,832] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018)
332,987/725,315 (45.9% capacity), [258/2,202] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Apr., 2019)
330,349/701,865 (47.1% capacity), [247/2,864] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017)
317,709/530,456 (59.9% capacity), [231/1,727] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015)
293,246/714,702 (41.0% capacity), [236/2,789] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015)
289,656/530,905 (54.5% capacity), [230/1,502] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016)
286,726/658,842 (43.5% capacity), [231/2,256] - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016)
283,482/670,255 (42.3% capacity), [254/2,527] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017)
274,872/775,754 (35.4% capacity), [262/2,657] - Toy Story 4 (July, 2019)
271,313/719,670 (37.7% capacity), [261/2,374] - Aladdin (June, 2019)
266,911/816,498 (32.7% capacity), [251/3,196] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018)
262,671/667,610 (39.3% capacity), [245/2,327] - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017)
248,613/533,783 (46.6% capacity), [258/2,293] - Avengers: Endgame (Apr., 2019)
241,332/608,132 (39.7% capacity), [250/1,979] - Code Blue (July, 2018)
227,517/473,967 (48.0% capacity), [221/1,582] - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (Apr., 2015)
217,221/919,956 (23.6% capacity), [258/3,250] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Nov., 2018)
209,804/462,825 (45.3% capacity), [229/1,366] - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Apr., 2015)
205,137/648,401 (31.6% capacity), [259/2,096] - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (June, 2019)
202,075/451,836 (44.7% capacity), [218/1,257] - Your Name. (Aug., 2016)
196,491/520,369 (37.8% capacity), [237/1,744] - Jurassic World (Aug., 2015)
193,053/648,160 (29.8% capacity), [252/2,037] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Dec., 2018)
187,901/485,825 (38.7% capacity), [235/1,574] - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Mar., 2018)
174,835/517,134 (33.8% capacity), [260/1,835] - Spider-Man: Far From Home (June, 2019)
174,797/501,322 (34.8% capacity), [240/1,487] - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Mar., 2017)
166,650/766,440 (21.7% capacity), [241/2,556] - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Nov., 2016)
157,910/547,894 (28.8% capacity), [252/1,655] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Mar., 2019)
157,739/484,007 (32.6% capacity), [247/1,422] - Masquerade Hotel (Jan., 2019)
139,061/668,663 (20.8% capacity), [236/2,346] - Finding Dory (July, 2016)
136,031/515,406 (26.4% capacity), [233/1,460] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Mar., 2016)
136,021/413,696 (32.9% capacity), [259/1,802] - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (July, 2019)

Sunday Results (~70% of Market):
Tickets Sold/Available Tickets (% Capacity), [Theaters/Showings], Film Title
415,451/710,757 (58.5% capacity), [258/2,166] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Apr., 2019)
357,985/643,941 (55.6% capacity), [249/1,793] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018)
328,862/595,145 (55.3% capacity), [240/1,648] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017)
316,396/810,365 (39.0% capacity), [251/3,159] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018)
303,414/524,359 (57.9% capacity), [231/1,688] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015)
288,800/558,006 (51.7% capacity), [250/1,859] - Code Blue (July, 2018)
287,736/686,927 (41.9% capacity), [261/2,298] - Aladdin (June, 2019)
282,386/512,761 (55.1% capacity), [230/1,434] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016)
275,491/670,208 (41.1% capacity), [236/2,636] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015)
264,078/659,166 (40.1% capacity), [254/2,486] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017)
263,634/633,723 (41.6% capacity), [245/2,241] - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017)
240,717/553,701 (43.5% capacity), [257/1,672] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Mar., 2019)
234,075/456,584 (51.2% capacity), [218/1,263] - Your Name. (Aug., 2016)
228,840/514,921 (44.4% capacity), [258/2,258] - Avengers: Endgame (Apr., 2019)
220,152/483,455 (45.5% capacity), [235/1,567] - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Mar., 2018)
219,122/687,402 (31.9% capacity), [247/2,805] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017)
217,273/450,421 (48.2% capacity), [229/1,277] - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Apr., 2015)
214,354/623,299 (34.4% capacity), [252/1,972] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Dec., 2018)
210,322/497,446 (42.2% capacity), [240/1,479] - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Mar., 2017)
207,464/639,737 (32.4% capacity), [231/2,205] - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016)
205,221/685,215 (29.9% capacity), [236/2,336] - Finding Dory (July, 2016)
203,669/748,846 (27.2% capacity), [243/2,554] - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Nov., 2016)
201,580/429,746 (46.9% capacity), [221/1,467] - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (Apr., 2015)
196,225/903,942 (21.7% capacity), [258/3,189] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Nov., 2018)
191,678/510,040 (37.6% capacity), [233/1,443] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Mar., 2016)
179,254/485,593 (36.9% capacity), [247/1,414] - Masquerade Hotel (Jan., 2019)
175,504/501,557 (35.0% capacity), [237/1,587] - Jurassic World (Aug., 2015)
163,731/511,689 (32.6% capacity), [260/1,810] - Spider-Man: Far From Home (June, 2019)
136,457/548,056 (24.9% capacity), [259/2,017] - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (June, 2019)


Weekend Results (~70% of Market):
Tickets Sold/Available Tickets (% Capacity), [Theaters/Showings], Film Title
748,438/1,436,072 (52.1% capacity), [258/4,368] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Apr., 2019)
703,128/1,299,917 (54.1% capacity), [249/3,625] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018)
676,886/1,200,412 (56.4% capacity), [240/3,324] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017)
621,123/1,051,181 (59.1% capacity), [231/3,415] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015)
583,307/1,626,823 (35.9% capacity), [251/6,355] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018)
572,042/1,043,666 (54.8% capacity), [230/2,936] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016)
569,497/1,392,147 (40.9% capacity), [236/5,431] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015)
559,049/1,406,597 (39.7% capacity), [261/4,672] - Aladdin (June, 2019)
549,579/1,389,766 (39.6% capacity), [247/5,670] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017)
547,821/1,330,179 (41.2% capacity), [254/5,015] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017)
530,132/1,116,138 (47.5% capacity), [250/3,838] - Code Blue (July, 2018)
526,470/1,302,175 (40.4% capacity), [245/4,570] - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017)
494,190/1,298,579 (38.1% capacity), [231/4,461] - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016)
477,529/1,048,231 (45.6% capacity), [261/4,552] - Avengers: Endgame (Apr., 2019)
436,267/x,908,420 (48.0% capacity), [218/2,520] - Your Name. (Aug., 2016)
429,097/x,903,746 (47.5% capacity), [221/3,049] - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (Apr., 2015)
427,077/x,913,713 (46.8% capacity), [229/2,643] - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Apr., 2015)
413,446/1,823,898 (22.7% capacity), [258/6,439] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Nov., 2018)
408,053/x,969,280 (42.1% capacity), [235/3,141] - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Mar., 2018)
407,419/1,271,559 (32.0% capacity), [252/4,010] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Dec., 2018)
398,627/1,101,595 (36.2% capacity), [257/3,337] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Mar., 2019)
385,119/x,998,768 (38.6% capacity), [240/2,966] - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Mar., 2017)
371,995/1,021,926 (36.4% capacity), [237/3,331] - Jurassic World (Aug., 2015)
370,390/1,515,394 (24.4% capacity), [243/5,111] - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Nov., 2016)
344,292/1,394,229 (24.7% capacity), [236/4,683] - Finding Dory (July, 2016)
342,594/1,196,457 (28.6% capacity), [259/4,113] - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (June, 2019)
338,566/1,028,823 (32.9% capacity), [260/3,645] - Spider-Man: Far From Home (June, 2019)
336,993/x,969,600 (34.8% capacity), [247/2,836] - Masquerade Hotel (Jan., 2019)
327,709/1,025,446 (31.9% capacity), [233/2,903] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Mar., 2016)

Very, very impressive start to begin Sunday for Toy Story 4. It'll likely exceed 300,000 for the day, and possibly approach/reach 350,000.

I'm also including Pokemon in today's updates. It's doing quite well and could deliver the best opening in the franchise since 2011.

WHAT? That so great. I knew 1.3B opening was possible

Wow Toy Story 4, that's absolutely crazy !!! What on earth happened to its Sunday? I'm pretty sure it's not a discount day either so that is doubly impressive. We were still wondering hours ago whether it would reach 1 billion yen and now it looks like it's actually going to be close to 1 million admissions (around 900k probably) which is even crazier.

Corpse, I'm noticing on your list that Finding Dory also had a huge Sunday increase (over 40%). Is that common among Pixar movies or just a coincidence? And do you think it might have a negative impact on legs like with Finding Dory?

This year seems to be really huge in Japan so far (BO wise). All the movies I was interested in (Endgame, Aladdin, TS4 and even local pics like Kingdom) performed at or above expectations and even movies which looked like they could bomb( like Detective Pikachu) ended up having respectable performances. Do you know how this year compares to previous ones Corpse overall?

sorry for so many questions

Sundays before a holiday Monday are often inflated, just like this one. Finding Dory also opened on this weekend (Marine Day Weekend) back in 2016. Opening on this weekend can lower legs a little bit, but I doubt it'll have much impact on Toy Story 4 due to how big its opening is becoming. Once a film opens on a certain scale, it tends to extend its legs a bit.

This year is definitely on track to setting a new record at the box-office. As long as a few of the other summer films meet/exceed expectations, and one or two films do decently in the fall, then a new record should be set.

Thanks for the answers.