FRI:

PIRT3 13.36,
KNCKD 9.9,
SHRK3 7.47,
BROOK 2.99,
SPID3 2.0,
WATRS 552K,
GRACI 418k

From Doughy at HSX


Woo-hoo! My 1000th post.

Doughy is almost always nearly 100% correct.

Based on these, Purates is definatley sub 50 million, Knocked Up has a slight chance at 30 million, and Shrek did pretty darn well considering that it's going to increase huge on Saturday. It shoulc make between 25-30 million for the weekend.

Hmm Pirates should make 48-49 milion $ and Knocked Up 28-30m $

Congrats on 1,000 posts, you Sexy Beast


Shrek 3 will drop 50%+. I don't know if that's darn well. Ok, it's actually pretty darn bad, all things considered.


I see $47m max for Pirates, probably $45m. Around $7m for SM3. Around $30m for Knocked Up.

That's a horrendous drop from Pirates. It dropped 69%. With a deflated Friday from Thursday previews, and an inflated Sunday from the long weekend, its weekend drop very be quite bad. At this point I'll say 61-64%

It will drop around 58%

"Shrek 3 will drop 50%+. I don't know if that's darn well. Ok, it's actually pretty darn bad, all things considered."

On the surface this might appear so, but you forget that last Friday was inflated because many people took the day off before the long weekend, as well as Sunday was inflated . *AND* it only made 53 million for the 3 day last weekend, so anything above 26.5 million is a sub 50% drop, so all things considered, it's pretty darn good, and if Surf's Up doesn't totally take it out next weekend, it might stabalize a bit for the rest of it's run...


Shrek 2 fell a similar 50% posr memorial day weekend as well.. so it's nothing shocking...

While Shrek 3 is currently running 50 million behind Shrek 2, it could at least get 325 million at this point, which isn't great, but isn't horrible either...

Die pirates die.

all summer movies die except Transformers.

if it only increases 35% on Sat, then down 35% on Sun, that would equal a 62% drop...thats high 60s??

Surely that's pretty much guaranteed Knocked Up's weekend to be over $30m. My guess would be around 33-34 million..

Corrected myself. Meant low to mid 60's..

I don't think it's horrendous. Things have changed.

I'd say its drop is expected. We should expect big drops from now on for all films.

If a $100m+ opener drops 50%, that's good; 55%, decent; 60%, expected; 65%, bad.


Any film that opens with more than $50m and drops less than 45% should be said to have a very good hold, imo. Things have just changed too much.

Shrek 2 fell less than 50%, from a much bigger height, and in face of direct and tough competition from Harry Potter. Its third weekend was at $37.9m, down from $72m. Shrek 2 is in a completely different league than Shrek 3.


At any rate, I'm not convinced that stabilization will do much, or that it will get any sort of breather at any time in the summer. I still don't see a $320m+ gross. $315m at most for now.

Pirates is projected to drop 62% this weekend.

Ditto. Transformers should be the exception since its opening weekend or week or days or whatever is so weird...

God, I just realized that my response to Magnus contradicts my response to Bryan.


Ok, let me put it this way: considering current market conditions, Shrek 3 is doing as expected. It's doing decently enough, but there is nothing about its post-opening performance that's "good". BUT, it is not doing terrible or even bad by current standards.


What redeems all three May openers are their tremendous openings. They are falling hard, but they're falling hard from much higher up than most films that have come before them. So their overall totals are not disastrous.

\

So you say it will make 43.6 milion $? It will easily make 46 milion $. With some luck it might get to 48m $.

Take a look at both Shrek and Shrek 2's dailies;

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/ ... hrekvs.htm

The summer weekdays will kick in in about a week or two, and they certainly help.
I conceed that Shrek 2 is in a different leauge then Shrek 3. But what I was saying is that it's drops are similar on the same weekend (sure, it opened against Harry Potter, but like you said, that film was in a leauge of it's own and also, you know, actually good!) So I'm still not too alarmed. We all know the Big three did much less then expected, and now that the month is over, I look back at Spidey 3's performance and it's more impressive when compared to the other two May films (even if it falls short of the other two Spidey films)

I guess opening 3 big guns is rapid sucsession was not the greatest idea.. oh well

SBD:

1. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLDS END BVI 4,362 13,390,000 3,070 n/a 186,746,000
2. KNOCKED UP UNIVERSAL 2,871 9,945,000 3,464 n/a 9,945,000
3. SHREK THE THIRD DREAMWORK 4,122 7,478,000 1,814 n/a 235,347,000
4. MR. BROOKS MGM 2,453 3,012,000 1,228 n/a 3,012,000
5. SPIDER-MAN 3 SONY 4,324 1,997,000 462 n/a 312,752,000
6. WAITRESS FOX SEARCHLIGHT 116 561,000 4,836 n/a 7,973,000
7. GRACIE PICTURE HOUSE 1,164 418,000 359 n/a 418,000
8. BUG LIONS GATE 812 404,000 498 n/a 5,282,000
9. 28 WEEKS LATER FOX ATOMIC 2,305 361,000 157 n/a 25,738,973
10. DISTURBIA PARAMO0UNT 2,547 350,000 137 n/a 75,944,808

DW is definitely going to have to shift gears majorly on Shrek 4 out in 2010. As big as Shrek 2 was ($481 m adjusted), Shrek 3 very well could lose $160 m from that, or 1/3 of its audience. There's also a slight chance that Shrek 3 may even dip below the original admissions wise ($319.8 m adjusted for inflation). I hardly think after having the 3rd biggest film of all time, that they ever saw Shrek 3 having a chance at dipping below the original...competition and quality were very influential...

Solid for Knocked Up. I think it could have a good IM and reach $31-32m this weekend.

im amazed Gracie will get well over 1m ... so sad

Anyone else think POTC3 could increase 50% today? a three hour film is easier to digest over the weekend, and its primary audience is kiddies, so...

V. good for Knocked Up, in line with expectations. Now, the fun part begins: Analyzing the legs.

Expected more for Knocked Up but stiLL, soLid numbers. Looks Like the sequeL fatigue heLped Gracie gross 1+m over the weekend as what I was thinking.