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 Gangnam will be out of the YouTube top 10 by 2020. 
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Homo Dperious
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Post Gangnam will be out of the YouTube top 10 by 2020.
Title edit: Hello isn't beating Gangnam anytime soon. With videos like See You Again, Sorry, Closer, and This I What You Came for going strong, Gangnam will drop down the list.

End edit.

It's going to hold a lot better than the other big debuts (Bad Blood, Anaconda, Wrecking Ball).

EDIT: Easily beaten them all already. Even if it holds like Wrecking Ball it will get to 2.5 bil. But most videos like it get at least 3-4 time their 3 month totals (3-4 bil).

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=P ... d3x1sZh8hC


Last edited by DP07 on Tue Oct 18, 2016 3:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:21 am
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
DP07 wrote:
It's going to hold a lot better than the other big debuts (Bad Blood, Anaconda, Wrecking Ball).

Isn't Gangnam style over 2 billion? Hello doesn't even have 100 million.

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Mon Oct 26, 2015 11:45 am
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
Yeah I don't get this either.

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Mon Oct 26, 2015 10:38 pm
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
Blank Space is over 1.2B views after about a year, and I think Hello's initial pace is like twice as fast unless I'm mistaken.


Tue Oct 27, 2015 12:10 am
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
FASTEST EVER VIDEOS TO REACH 100M ON YOUTUBE:

Psy, Gentleman (2013) – 3 days
Miley Cyrus, Wrecking Ball (2013) – 6 days
Kobe vs. Messi, The Selfie Shootout (ad) (2013) – 8 days
Shakira, Can’t Remember To Forget You (2014) – 10 days
Nicki Minaj, Anaconda (2014) – 11 days
Taylor Swift, Blank Space (2014) – 16 days
Wiz Khalifa, See You Again (2015) – 17 days
Shakira, La La La (2014) – 20 days
Maroon 5, Sugar (2015) – 20 days
Kobe Bryant vs. Lionel Messi on Turkish Airlines ad (2012) – 21 days
Katy Perry, Dark Horse (2014) – 23 days
Katy Perry, Roar (2013) – 26 days
Taylor Swift, Shake It Off (2014) – 27 days
Sia, Elastic Heart (2015) – 27 days
Pitbull, We Are One (Ole Ola) (2014) – 30 days

Adele's on track to do it in seven days.

Source: http://www.musicbusinessworldwide.com/t ... etty-nuts/


Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:27 am
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
But Adele's "Hello" doesn't have the worldwide buzz to sustain these views. "Gangnum Style" was getting people interested everywhere.

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Tue Oct 27, 2015 2:14 am
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
It is still getting like 20m a day, it is not slowing down. It should hit 100m today which would be just over 5 days. It's going to maintain an absurd pace based on its staying power so far. It will far outpace Blank Space. 2 billion is pretty much certain at this point.


Tue Oct 27, 2015 5:26 am
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
It would need to sustain 20m per day for over 3 months. It ain't going to do that.

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Tue Oct 27, 2015 9:31 am
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
Gonna ´pass 100m today

another record in the bag

#legend

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Tue Oct 27, 2015 11:14 am
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
It won't touch 2 bil.

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Tue Oct 27, 2015 12:09 pm
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
Algren wrote:
It would need to sustain 20m per day for over 3 months. It ain't going to do that.



Why? I didn't say it would get to 2b in 3 months. Blank Space was at a sustained 4-6m a day.


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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
Because youtube isn't the only place to listen to it, it won't hit 2b.

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Tue Oct 27, 2015 2:42 pm
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
Chippy wrote:
Because youtube isn't the only place to listen to it, it won't hit 2b.


It's different from other songs...how?


Tue Oct 27, 2015 6:54 pm
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
Huh? It's not different from other songs. That's the point. There's a reason Gangnam Style has DOUBLED Blank Space. Did you see people go to spotify/pandora/the radio to listen to it? Hardly. It was prominently on Youtube. That WAS its medium. Just like Avatar's medium was 3D, so it cut down on illegal sharing/watching it on TV/your phone/whatever.

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Tue Oct 27, 2015 7:03 pm
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
DP07 wrote:
Algren wrote:
It would need to sustain 20m per day for over 3 months. It ain't going to do that.



Why? I didn't say it would get to 2b in 3 months. Blank Space was at a sustained 4-6m a day.

Because after 3 months I can't imagine it having much buzz still.

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Tue Oct 27, 2015 8:19 pm
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
Algren wrote:
DP07 wrote:
Algren wrote:
It would need to sustain 20m per day for over 3 months. It ain't going to do that.



Why? I didn't say it would get to 2b in 3 months. Blank Space was at a sustained 4-6m a day.

Because after 3 months I can't imagine it having much buzz still.


:funny:


Tue Oct 27, 2015 8:39 pm
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
Well, let's see if it's still huge at the end of January then. You're perhaps forgetting that Christmas and New Year are in-between; perfect occasions to shake up any interest in anything pre-festivities.

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Tue Oct 27, 2015 8:59 pm
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
Chippy wrote:
Huh? It's not different from other songs. That's the point. There's a reason Gangnam Style has DOUBLED Blank Space. Did you see people go to spotify/pandora/the radio to listen to it? Hardly. It was prominently on Youtube. That WAS its medium. Just like Avatar's medium was 3D, so it cut down on illegal sharing/watching it on TV/your phone/whatever.


Whatever, Youtube is growing. Look at when most of the billion view club was released. Rolling in the Deep would have 2b headed for 3b or more if it were as big at the time (in fact will will probably get 2b by 2025 or so). Gangnam Style was at 9-12m a day at its peak, and Hello is looking like it might match that with better staying power.


Last edited by DP07 on Tue Oct 27, 2015 9:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Oct 27, 2015 9:10 pm
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
Algren wrote:
Well, let's see if it's still huge at the end of January then. You're perhaps forgetting that Christmas and New Year are in-between; perfect occasions to shake up any interest in anything pre-festivities.


Like Blank Space or anything else ever dropped off the face of the earth in January.


Tue Oct 27, 2015 9:12 pm
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
It doesn't need to drop off the face of the earth. But to get to 2 billion, it sure as hell needs to maintain a huge amount of daily views (millions) before it becomes "old".

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Tue Oct 27, 2015 9:51 pm
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
The very frontloaded Wrecking Ball had 350m after 3 months and its now at 800m. Many that hold decently can get at least 3-4 times their three month total. I think Hello might get 5. 500m after 3 months is locked.


Tue Oct 27, 2015 10:05 pm
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
That would still mean another 1.5b are needed, lol. It ain't getting there, DP07, just admit it. ;)

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Tue Oct 27, 2015 10:56 pm
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
101m


Wed Oct 28, 2015 12:13 am
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
Algren wrote:
That would still mean another 1.5b are needed, lol. It ain't getting there, DP07, just admit it. ;)


You'll see.


Wed Oct 28, 2015 12:40 am
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Post Re: So how long until Hello beats Gangnam Style on YouTube?
You'll see!

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