https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/ ... ornia-poll

Huge for Warren.

Also one of the biggest things she has going for her is... she's a LOT of people's 2nd choice. So if/when the other candidates start dropping, her numbers are only going to improve.

She started off as my first choice, but Warren won me over. Harris hasn't really had a theme that resonates with people.

She’s bossy and if you saw her last performance she had this one somewhat creepy juvenile moment with Biden . She should be happy with this senate seat she will have for the next thousand years

Apparently Julian Castro is close to dropping out if he doesn't get momentum soon and Yang was polling ahead of Kamala Harris in CA of all places.

https://thefederalist.com/2019/09/18/an ... l-reveals/

She should bounce already before Tulsi ravages her one more time.


Politico release a poll showing Warren topping Biden again atm. The next debate is going to be critical for him. Still a long ways till IA and NH though .

Warren articulated it well in this clip. Big money interests are deeply invested in the government to make sure the law works in their favor. When the people mobilize in numbers more than the corporations in moneyed contributions, we flip the imbalance of power.

Debate #4 will be a one-night event on October 15. It has the same qualification thresholds (2%+ in 4 polls, 130,000+ unique donors and 400+ unique donors per state in 20 states) as Debate #3.

Interestingly, there will likely be 12 candidates qualifying for Debate #4 versus 10 candidates in Debate #3.

Likely Debate #4 participants:

Debate #5 will be in November.

To qualify, a candidate must (1) poll 3%+ in 4 polls or 5%+ in 2 early-state polls, and (2) have 165,000+ unique donors with 600+ donors per state in at least 20 states. This will narrow the field down to maybe 7 candidates, according to FiveThirtyEight.

https://democrats.org/news/dnc-announces-qualification-criteria-for-fifth-presidential-primary-debate/

These candidates have dropped out since the first debate:



Jay Inslee and Eric Swalwell each received 1 vote in this non-scientific poll. Poll is still open.

I would hope by that point Yang can get a measly 3 in 4 polls.

February 3 Iowa Caucus
February 11 New Hampshire Primary
February 22 Nevada Caucus
February 29 South Carolina Primary
March 3 A slew of 16 Primaries.

Gotta say this should be exciting stuff. How long will Bernie hold out if he loses the first two to Warren.

I was reviewing the 2016 Pubs and it was Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio results in the first four but as folks withered Trump kept gaining momentum even as votes got divvied up between those top 4. Certainly helped being either 1st or 2nd in those 4 contests. Assuming Warren wins IA, Bernie NH and Biden SC, it could be quite a mess going into Super Tuesday.

Harris and her campaign are in a difficult position. She has lost a lot of ground in Iowa since July/August, largely due to spending her time elsewhere in other states, and just not presenting voters with a clear vision of her campaign.

So now she's going back to Iowa to play catch up, and while it's still relatively early, there are now fewer voters to persuade that are either leaning strongly toward a different candidate, or have already chosen one to fully support. And in the process of attempting to regain ground in Iowa, she's likely going to fall (further) behind in the other states...

Of course, it all comes down to having a certain appeal early on, whether that be one's name/accomplishments and/or presenting a clear platform, but Harris and her campaign also haven't allocated their time very well.

In the end, I think the Democratic nomination comes down to Bernie again. I don't think he'll pull ahead of Warren, so it's up to him and his supporters to decide to back her early enough so she can remain viable against Biden. Biden will have a strong showing up through Super Tuesday and likely have a solid delegate lead (assuming no crazy scandal), so Warren and Bernie can't be competing after this stage of the process or Biden will run away with the nomination simply due to the math. Not saying I don't want Biden to win, just sayin' that the "never Biden" voters need to be careful because it could mathematically be Biden's victory earlier than expected.

To be fair, Kamala was only elevated to contender status by her impressive performance on the first debate. When she was unable to repeat it, people lost interest.

Sanders had a lovely heart procedure where two stents were installed due to blocked arteries. Time for him to bounce and let Warren consolidate that voting bloc.

Tonight:

12 people is too many!

Yeah, I'd rather have them split into three groups of four, each group occupying a one-hour session.

I liked what Julian Castro had to say: Be not afraid of holding public servants accountable.

Warren played defense well, and she best continue to do so since tonight certainty indicated that she's target #1 now.

Klobuchar had a great performance. I've probably said it here before, but she's long been one of my favorite candidates, and I'd consider her one of the strongest candidates running. I just think the party has moved too far left for her to be viable in the primaries (evident by her polling). Let's see if she can chip away at Biden's moderate support after tonight.

Sanders had his usual energy and likely reassured some that he's still a strong contender.

Biden was fine, and this may have been his best performance. It surely helped that he wasn't the target of too many tonight.

Buttigieg was strong. He needed this performance, too, to get him back in the race. I generally like him, and would welcome any resurgence for him in the polls.

The only "downside" is that everyone is either holding steady in their performances, or improving, meaning the field probably isn't likely to shrink any time soon.

I love that Tulsi slammed the CNN smearpiece on her at the CNN debate I really want her to be president. She would destroy Trump in a debate, but it doesn't seem like she'll get the chance. I love her platform and attitude, and don't feel strongly in favor of anyone else.

yikes, man. YIKES.

Have only watched the first hour, but the other candidates turning their attention from Biden to Warren was Very Noticeable.

This. And finally four debates in, the candidates and the moderators have started talking about the assortment of fiascos (e.g. Syria) under the current administration. If they want to draw contrasts effectively, they have to talk about how bad the current admin is and how they will deal with it if elected.

Good job by Hillary strengthening Tulsi by making her a martyr

Yeah can Hilary just stop talking publicly for at least the next year? Nothing she says helps and she still hasn’t taken responsibility for letting Trump become president in the first place.

This little fight might help Tulsi a bit, but I don't think it will be enough. It'll be hard to gauge the impact though because most of the people likely to come her side are not polled dems. Her 2 minute video encapsulates what she's about. https://youtu.be/NJ9ofm5y-pQ

How did she let him win?

It's not like she was ever gonna get the white straight male vote