Jesus Christ. Christians. Christmas.
These three words put together not only spell Box Office Gold, but jesuschristchristianschristmas. But mainly Box Office Gold. On December 1st, The Nativity Story opens nationwide, hoping to capitalize on the recent trend of Christian-themed blockbusters, coupled with the fact that it just may be the perfect movie in recent memory to have been released during the holidays. This film’s triumph largely depends on how much its core audience will be willing to shell out 10 bucks to see the story they’ve heard countless times, once more on the big screen. The tale has been retold millions of times, whether it has been in books, cartoons, made-for-TV movies, CCD classes, or in places of worship across the globe, but never has a distinct attempt been made, at least in modern times, to bring the storied account of the birth of Jesus Christ to movie theaters. This may be a bigger risk that some think, for rarely has a movie’s entire performance at the box office practically ridden on desire and desire alone. New Line Cinema has undertaken this heavy burden, and is praying for big results in return. The Nativity Story isn’t quite yet a lock to become one of the winter’s biggest grossers, and many things still have to go its way before it can be christened as a true blockbuster, but if everything falls into place, don’t be surprised if it makes enough to rival another Christian-oriented success-story of this year, The Da Vinci Code, in terms of final domestic gross.
First, here are a few very valuable factors that affect The Nativity Story's potential:
- Its release date sets the stage for a very long run. Opening on the 1st of December ensures The Nativity Story minimal drops throughout the weekends following its opening, all the way through the very profitable Christmas week, which is four weeks into its release. In the week of Christmas, it should probably take in as much money as was made in its first week of release. A typical family film in December eventually makes between 4-5 times its opening weekend by the end of its run, but for this type of movie, the legs could be even longer. The week of the 25th should bring huge business for The Nativity Story, followed by the traditionally productive weekend around New Year's Eve. AlthoughThe Nativity Story has seen a limited 'rush' factor thus far, even with a soft opening weekend in the 15 million range, it should be able to make a run at a $100 million total. Praising the film for its release date is stating the obvious though, as no one would expect the story of the origin of Christmas to be released any other time BUT around Christmas time.
- Competition is a non-factor, as all Christmas-themed movies released thus far this season have disappointed or flopped, and no further Christmas-themed films are scheduled after TNS’s release. No film could seriously compete with a film which appeals to such a broad, dedicated audience anyhow, as proven by The Passion of the Christ. Those who wish to see this film will do so, and other movies playing in cineplexes will not affect their decision whatsoever.
- The power of The Nativity Story’s genre is one that is vividly understood as well. We all are familiar with the success stories of The Passion of the Christ, The Chronicles of Narnia, and The Da Vinci Code. All movies based around Christianity. One received mixed reviews, one favorable, and the other was completely trashed, yet all three became uber-successful. One thing that should be noted is that, despite its inclusion in this genre, Nativity is missing something these other three films all possessed: Something other than the religion itself to draw in audiences. The Passion had the anti-Semitism and excessive violence controversy, Da Vinci had the controversy relating to its source material and was based on a very popular book read by millions, and Narnia was also based on a best-selling children's classic. The Nativity Story, at least at first glance, appears to be strictly for members of Christianity. It tells the story of the birth of their religion, in a non-controversial manner, and sticks closely to its source material, The Bible. It's director and cast are fairly unknown, unlike say Mel Gibson or Ron Howard or Tom Hanks. There is a possibility that its accessibility to families, and the universal message of the film (whatever it may be) will draw in somewhat of an outside crowd, giving it room to grow. Either way, genre as of late points to nothing but green.
- Marketing so far has been fair, but not omnipresent, and once again, should not be a large factor in terms of box office. The Passion and Da Vinci were hyped up big-time before their releases, but only one film did it through big spending on marketing. The Passion was not initially strongly marketed, because awareness was already excruciatingly high among Americans through the controversy surrounding the film. Although, as mentioned before, The Nativity Story has not been hyped as much as either of these films, the magnitude of its gross will be based on word-of-mouth and legs, and therefore, strong marketing is not necessary for this film to succeed.
- Projected theater counts are promising, around 2800, a hair less than the Passion (closer to 3000) but this should not affect the film. It is almost better that it will not be super-saturated for its first weekend, for it gives it room to grow and add on theaters as the time draws closer to Christmas and word-of-mouth spreads. If this film is meant to make money, it will, despite botth marketing and theater counts.
Here are the pro’s and con’s that can be discussed regarding general interest in The Nativity Story:
Pro’s
- It contains the perfect storyline for Christmas-time.
- No large-scale Christ-oriented movie has flopped since The Last Temptation of Christ
- It is a feel-good and uplifting movie, rather the violent and depressing Passion of the Christ and dreary and dull Da Vinci Code
- Not only is it a family film, but it is a Christmas film, both of which typically have outstanding legs in December
Con’s
- Some believe filmmakers are trying to make a quick buck off of the success of POTC
- It features a no-name cast and a director that is relatively unkown (Catherine Hardwicke, of Lords of Dogtown and Thirteen)
- The material may have been retread one too many times, and may appear stale
- There may not be as much of a ‘rush’ factor to see a lower-scale film
- Lack of controversy hurts chances of drawing in outside crowd
After looking at all the facts, one abstract question still remains:
DO AUDIENCES WANT TO SEE THE NATIVITY STORY?
I believe the answer is a resounding YES. The pro’s clearly outweigh the con’s in this case, and so do the millions of believers in Christ. All Christians will feel obligated to view a film retelling the birth of their savior, and it should do handy business all the way through Christmas, so even a relatively small opening will result in an impressive final total. Reviews can only help this film, which initially have been favorable, to assist it in branching out to those outside the Christian community. The only thing that may hold this film back is the lack of an ‘event picture’ feel, for as of right now, even days before its release, the film seems a little lower scale than POTC or DVC. It won’t draw in as many non-Christians, for the subject matter is not as controversial, or appealing to those outside of the religion. That being said, it is the ideal family film for this time of the year, and it certainly makes up for it’s lack of opening weekend buzz with its broader appeal to all ages and its ability to hang around after its first week of release. It may not reach the extreme heights of these two box office smashes, but in no way will it bomb, flop, or disappoint. Nothing further can be said about The Nativity Story’s potential other than that the heavens are the limit. But I will be damned (hopefully not literally) if I can’t take a hearty try at pinning its opening weekend, and its tricky final gross as well. (And the numbers should help me take my mind off of these terrible, terrible puns).
Weekend Prediction: 18.5 Million
Final Total Prediction: 125 Million
