For years, Denzel Washington has not only been known as one of the top actors of his generation, but as a solid and consistent box office draw as well. Out of his past 10 films, spanning back to 1999, Washington has seen eight gross over $50 million, while half of these ten films grossed over $70 million. While he has rarely seen exceptional blockbuster success, he is viewed as one of the most dependable box office draws in his field. On November 22nd, Déjà vu hopes to continue this trend. The film itself is ironically titled, for it marks Washington’s sixth go-around as a cop/detective in the past eight years. While many argue Washington has become stereotyped into continuously embodying the “tough-cop” role, millions of dollars in box office receipts prove that audiences prefer to see him in this role, which seems tailor-made for his talents. Cop-themed films have garnered the most financial success among all other of Denzel’s features, and one has even earned him an Oscar (Training Day). With a talented supporting cast and experienced action director Tony Scott at the helm, Déjà vu has big expectations for this holiday season; the question is if it can meet them.

Release Date

Let’s first take a look at Déjà vu’s release date. It opens on the 22nd, the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. The 5-day weekend of Thanksgiving has traditionally been very generous to holdovers, but recently not as kind to new releases. Take the chart for top 20 opening weekends for films released around this time of the year:

Out of these 20 top films, only two have opened over $30 million in the past 5 years, and both have been family-oriented. The first five days of its release will be the biggest, and therefore its performance on Thanksgiving weekend will set the tone for the rest of its run. Harsh drops will be expected in its second weekend, which is traditional for all movies post-Thanksgiving, but the holiday season and lack of competition should help it stabilize in the following weeks. This weekend historically has not had many films similar to Déjà vu released, other than the successful James Bond franchise, but has seen many box office successes outside of the genre. An action thriller headlined by a well-known star has yet to be tested on Thanksgiving weekend in the new age of cinema.

Box Office Effect: Neutral

Competition

Competition is a near-nightmare for Déjà vu. Casino Royale opens only five days before it hits theaters, and even if it disappoints to a roughly 30 million dollar opening, it should have a strong hold in its second weekend due to the Thanksgiving boost, combined with the fact that most James Bond films hold fairly well in their second weekends. Deja vu also faces off against The Fountain’s first weekend, another thriller that involves the idea of time travel. Although buzz on Fountain is mixed, it has a prominent star in Hugh Jackman and an intriguing premise, and could surprise, potentially stealing some of Déjà vu’s teen/adult audience. The market traditionally has not expanded to support two major wide releases during this time period, and with Deck the Halls, a Christmas-themed family movie, and Tenacious D opening, competition could potentially cause Déjà vu much trouble unless it distances itself as the frontrunner for the weekend. Poor response to The Fountain, average numbers for Deck the Halls (which is guaranteed a 20 million 5 day due to its theme), and a small opening from Tenacious D (which is expected) will give DV a reasonable shot at performing over 30 million dollars for the 5 day weekend. Good news for the film is no direct competition opens after its release for quite some time, giving it some breathing room during the holiday season. Although, as said before, its first five days are crucial, and these will be the ones seeing the most competition.

Box Office Effect: Negative

Cast

This one at first seems like a no-brainer, but when one takes a second look, the cast does have its flaws. Washington clearly is a huge draw, and through his name alone this film should gross $50 million total, despite reviews or competition. But the surrounding cast is muddled. Val Kilmer and James Caveizel are both fine actors, but with an exception of one or two films (both successful because of subject matter, not actors) neither has seen much box office success. One crucial piece to the puzzle missing from this film is a strong female lead. Elle Fanning is nowhere close to a household name, and does not match up against former female costars of Denzel Washington, including Jodie Foster, Dakota Fanning, Meryl Streep, and Angelina Jolie. Nevertheless, Denzel is who people will come for, and Denzel is who people will stay for. Here's a list of how his films over the past 10 years have fared in their first weekend of wide release:

It should also be noted that Tony Scott and Washington have collaborated before, to prosperous results: Man on Fire, and Crimson Tide. Scott may not be well-known among the general public, but is a veteran director with quite a few successful action films under his belt. Although his film Domino flopped last year, Scott’s track record as a director is encouraging and filled with hits such as Top Gun, Days of Thunder, and Enemy of the State, as well as the aforementioned films.

Box Office Effect: Positive

Genre

Here is an area that has already been briefly discussed. Déjà vu is unusual, in that it includes a few usually unrelated genres. It is both a cop-drama, an action thriller, somewhat of a mystery, and also involves time travel. Both Scott and Washington have found endless success with action thrillers, and Déjà vu should be no exception. One apparent flaw in the film’s genre though, is that this is Washington’s second movie this year in which he plays a cop, and audiences may be shied away from seeing the same basic character on screen again. The time travel twist should provide some assistance in helping the film avoid a stereotypical, stale, been-there-done-that appearance, and makes up for the otherwise cliché thriller premise.

Box Office Effect: Positive

Marketing

Marketing thus far for Déjà vu has been noticeably strong, with many TV spots, and an engaging trailer that has been out for a couple months. It has been attached to notable box office performer The Departed, and is well-known among the general public. A small downfall seen in the marketing for Déjà vu is the murkiness of its plot. Although it can easily be seen that the plot surrounds the concept of Déjà vu, and that a cop encounters the phenomenon in order to solve a case, not much else can be understood from the marketing, therefore not giving it the individuality it may need to set itself apart from other films in theaters. This just as well could turn out to be a positive effect, for most thrillers from Washington marketed just as vaguely have reaped in large profits, and audiences’ interest may be spurred by the fact that for once the entire plot of a film has not been given away before it has even been released.

Box Office Effect: Slightly Positive

Screen Counts/Theater Counts

Although theater count is unknown, it can be safe to say Déjà vu will open anywhere between 3000 and 3200 theaters. Here is not where lies the problem, for this theater count is typical and even somewhat high for the genre. The problem resides in the fact that Déjà vu may not be able to gain many screens in its theaters. Facing three wide releases, two that have a solid shot at making above $25 million over the five day weekend, will only lower screen counts. If Casino Royale enjoys a weekend over 40 million the weekend before, as well as if Happy Feet performs up to high expectations, theater owners will be hesitant to drop screens to make room for Déjà vu.

Box Office Effect: Negative

Final Thoughts

Denzel Washington is a big-time actor. Tony Scott is a big-time director. Terry Rossio (Pirates of the Caribbean, Shrek) is a big-time writer. November is the month for big movies. It seems as if the alignment is perfect. But as the tagline of Déjà vu tells us, we must take another look. Competition is fierce for its opening 5 days. Casino Royale will still be a potent force at the box office. Screens will be hard to come by in such a busy time of the season, loaded with many new films. November is a relatively untested month for action thrillers. All in all, Denzel’s drawing power should negate at least to some extent most of these forces, and provide for a solid gross, but for it to reach the heights of Inside Man and Man on Fire, it’s going to have to avoid being lost in the shuffle. It’s safe to assume reviews and word of mouth will not affect Déjà vu’s opening weekend, but will definitely become a huge factor in its long-term success. With the assumption that this receives fairly positive WOM, like many of Washington’s previous cop-thrillers, here is the outlook for Déjà vu:

Minimum Opening Weekend (5-day): 25 million
Minimum Total Gross: 60 million

Maximum Opening Weekend (5-Day): 38 million
Maximum Total Gross: 95 million