After two disappointing openings from two films expected do to extremely well, it looks like the box-office is back on track with films like “The Da Vinci Code” and “Over the Hedge” pulling in massive numbers. The next big film of the summer is the anticipated third part in the popular comic book franchise, “X-Men: The Last Stand.” In the film, when a cure is found to treat mutations, lines are drawn amongst the X-Men, led by Professor Charles Xavier (Stewart), and the Brotherhood, a band of powerful mutants organized under Xavier's former ally, Magneto (McKellen). The film is being released on the biggest weekend of the year. Will it beat the first two films in the franchise or follow the path of “Mission: Impossible III?”

Release Date
As I mentioned earlier, “X3” is being released on the biggest weekend of the year – Memorial Day weekend. It’s a weekend that has proven to be the biggest movie-going weekend in many occasions. The #1 and #3 biggest overall weekends of all-time were Memorial Day weekends (#1 being in 2004, #3 in 2005). This year, with “X3,” “The Da Vinci Code,” and “Over the Hedge,” there is a possibility that this could be the biggest unadjusted weekend of all-time, an impressive milestone in a time where many consider the box-office to be in a non-existent “slump.” May is always a big month for opening weekends. Out of the only four movies to make $100 million over a three-day weekend, three of those films were released in May. Here are the top opening weekends in May:

(Note: Mission: Impossible III’s total is the total as of May 16, 2006)

As you can see, “X2: X-Men United” opened to a massive $85.6 million opening weekend in May of 2003. Expectations for “X3” are to either replicate a similar opening weekend or exceed it. With a release date like this, I don’t doubt it. In addition, “X3” is almost guaranteed to break the Memorial Day weekend record. The current highest 4-Day record on Memorial Day weekend for an opener is $90.2 million, achieved by “The Lost World: Jurassic Park” nine years ago. The biggest 4-Day Memorial Day weekend for any film (opener or holdover) is “Shrek 2,” with $95.6 million. “X3” is almost guaranteed to make over $100 million in four days considering the massive hype.

Box-Office Effect: Extremely Positive

Competition

“X-Men: The Last Stand” is a film that not many studios are courageous to open their film against. Considering the last film made $85 million in one weekend, studios scattered to the surrounding weekends, leaving “X3” as the only release on Memorial Day weekend. This hasn’t happened since “Pearl Harbor” opened in 2001. Typically, the weekend is big enough for films to co-exist. Last year, “Revenge of the Sith” (coming off of a $108 million first weekend), “Madagascar,” and “The Longest Yard” all fought for the audiences, and made a combined 4-Day total of $189.6 million. The year before, “Shrek 2” (coming off of a $108 million opening weekend) and “The Day After Tomorrow” shared $181.4 million in box-office receipts, just between the two of them. This year, we have three big films all fighting for the money, just like last year. “X3” is the big opener for the weekend, while “The Da Vinci Code” looks to have a huge second weekend, as well as “Over the Hedge.” Realistically, the three films could total around $210 million in four days, which is simply unheard of. If “The Da Vinci Code” opens to expectations, “X3” will have some heavy direct competition, although “X3” should manage as “Code” will be a little frontloaded and “Over the Hedge” is a different audience altogether. Competition is heavy, but there is no reason to believe “X3” will be hurt by either of the two films. Though, a weekend with no competition would be better, but during the past few years, this is unheard of.

Box-Office Effect: Neutral

Star Power
Obviously, the cast is quite excellent. While it’s tough to consider anyone in this film a major box-office draw, the combined talent of Hugh Jackman, Halle Berry, Patrick Stewart, Ian McKellen, Famke Janssen, Rebecca Romijn and others should bring the audiences back for some more. It’s quite good that all the original cast has returned for a third part in the popular series. Audiences have now adapted to these actors and actresses playing their respective characters. While it won’t help increase the box-office much, it certainly doesn’t hurt, as shown by the $157 million and $215 million totals of the first two films.

However, the replacement of director Bryan Singer (since he wanted to do “Superman Returns”) with “Rush Hour” director Brett Ratner has not received positive feedback. Fans have become skeptical of the third film’s quality due to Ratner’s involvement with the film. This shouldn’t lower the potential of the film by any means, but it doesn’t help either.

Box-Office Effect: Neutral

Genre
Comic-book adaptations have found great success in the past six years. Ever since the original “X-Men” film was released, we’ve seen grosses in the range of $100-400 million for the more popular ones, and anywhere from $20-90 million for the less known ones. Here are the top comic-book adaptation opening weekends ever:

“X3” has a realistic shot at getting the second spot on the chart above.

Box-Office Effect: Positive

Marketing
Marketing has been through the roof for “X3.” This is Fox’s biggest release this summer, so like last year with “Revenge of the Sith,” “Mr. and Mrs. Smith,” and “Fantastic Four,” “X3” is getting the special treatment. The hype has been building for well over a year now, and ever since the teaser was released with “King Kong” in December, the buzz has reached massive levels. The film has consistently shown up on the Yahoo! Buzz Chart for the past three months, maintaining quite a nice score (based on their scoring system). This chart shows how often “X3” is being searched, and considering its consistency, it looks like all the hype from the second film is continuing to the third.

The trailer for “X3” has been attached to all the big hits of 2006 so far and the general reaction to the trailer seems to be positive. Fox also showed a 7-minute preview of the film on May 11, before the showing of the That 70’s Show Season Finale, and the preview scored a higher viewer rating than the show itself. Commercials have been non-stop ever since March. Fox is taking no chances with this film, and all the commercials and trailers are getting audiences excited, it seems.

Box-Office Effect: Extremely Positive

Theater Count / Screen Count
Three years ago, “X2: X-Men United” set the theater count record with a massive 3,741 theaters opening weekend. These days, 3,700 is an excellent count, but not uncommon, as even films like “RV” can score a 3,600 theater count. However, 4,000 seems to be the magical number this month. In the past three weeks alone, “Mission: Impossible III” and “Over the Hedge” both received theater counts of over 4,000, while “Poseidon and “The Da Vinci Code” both received over 3,500 theaters themselves. In March, Fox unleashed “Ice Age: The Meltdown” in 3,964 theaters. The market was more open then, however, but this shouldn’t stop “X3” from a 4,000 theater count. The least to expect is around 3,900, and the ceiling should be around 4,100. I don’t expect Fox to set the record again (currently 4,163 by “Shrek 2”), but it could come close.

The biggest problem at the moment is the number of screens available. It’s obvious that if theaters have to, they’ll drop as many screens as they can just to accommodate “X3,” but how many screens are left? “The Da Vinci Code” and “Over the Hedge” both received an average of 5 and 4 screens in the biggest theaters in the country, and “Mission: Impossible III” and “Poseidon” are still hanging on to the leftovers. However, due to the fact that the running time is apparently over 20 minutes shorter than “X2,” more showtimes will be given.

Box-Office Effect: Positive

Final Thoughts / Predictions

“X3” will be huge; plain and simple. The film is being released on the biggest weekend of the year, has a huge fanbase, fantastic marketing, a massive number of theaters, and a great cast. The film will also be naturally frontloaded, so the opening 4-Day weekend should be quite massive. “X2” opened with $85.6 million in May 2003, a per-theater-average (PTA) of $22,870. However, the film wasn’t released on a Holiday weekend. Because of Memorial Day, the wealth is spread out over the four days, and although the film will have a smaller Sunday drop, a lot of potential weekend gross will go to Monday. Still, the film should be able to achieve at least a $22,000 PTA, given the massive buzz and the start of summer break for many schools across the country (unlike “X2,” which released in the beginning of May). The opening weekend should be around $88-90 million over the three-day period. The film will make an additional $20-21 million on Monday, giving it the Memorial day weekend record of around $110 million in four days.

I expect the legs to be close to “The Day After Tomorrow,” a frontloaded film released on Memorial Day weekend two years ago. The film made 46% of its gross in its first four days of release, a very high number showing how frontloaded it was. Actually, “The Day After Tomorrow” is the most frontloaded film ever released on Memorial Day weekend. But, it also had to face “Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban” in its second weekend, which easily took away a lot of audiences. “X3” should still be very frontloaded, though, so it should make around 44-45% of its final gross in the first four days. This will give “X3” a total of around $245 million. The high end to expect for “X3” is around $120 million in four days and $265 million total. The lowest to expect is around $100 million in four days and $220 million total. Even the low end of expectations for the film is quite impressive.

My Prediction

“X-Men: The Last Stand” will be released on May 26, 2006.