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Rob Cohen, director of “XXX” and “The Fast and the Furious”, returns to the big screen with his new, mindless, summer action flick, “Stealth”. “Stealth” brings to the screen the classic “Man vs. Machine” scenario with three pilots taking on an artificially intelligent aircraft with the power to initiate the next world war. Let’s take a look at how “Stealth” can go in the box office this summer.

Release Date

Opening in the summer season is always an advantage; especially for mindless action films. It’s a time where audiences have time to go to the movies and have a good time. July is a big month for action films. Last year, movies like “Spider-Man 2”, “The Bourne Supremacy”, and “I, Robot” were all successful in the month of July, even if they all had to go head to head with each other. “Stealth” releases at the very end of July. On the same weekend in 2004, “The Village” dominated the weekend, despite unbelievably terrible word of mouth. With a good marketing campaign and nice shots in the trailer, pretty much any action film can succeed in the month of July. Here is a look at the top opening weekends of July.

Although “The Fast and the Furious” and “XXX” were both released in June and August respectively, there’s no reason to believe that “Stealth” won’t be successful in the month of July.

Box Office Effect: Positive

Competition

With a great month often comes great competition. “Stealth” however, doesn’t have a whole lot to deal with.

On the same weekend “Stealth” releases, two movies try to capitalize on different demographics. “Sky High” will skew towards the younger audience, who probably have little interest in a movie like “Stealth”, while “Must Love Dogs” will try to bring in the female audience, another audience that is unlikely to end up in “Stealth”. However, the movies released in the previous weekends could hurt it. The weekend before, the summer box office king, Michael Bay, releases his newest film, “The Island”. Lucky for “Stealth”, “The Island” was a major disappointment in the box-office, and will not be any competition at all. Other competition comes from “Fantastic Four” and “Wedding Crashers”, both aiming for the teen audience. “Fantastic Four” will be well under $10 million that weekend, while “Wedding Crashers”, which has been pulling some great numbers, should be in the $15 million range. Neither will hurt “Stealth” immensely. “The Dukes of Hazzard” might affect the second weekend of “Stealth”, though.

Box Office Effect: Neutral

Cast and Director

Although Rob Cohen isn’t known for films worthy of even an academy award nomination, he directs films the please the audience. His main target is usually always teens, and so far, he’s 2-0. Both “The Fast and the Furious” and “XXX” did excellent in the box office, but were also backed up by Vin Diesel, who was, at the time, a big box office draw.

The Fast and the Furious

“The Fast and the Furious” grossed $144,533,925 total.

XXX

"XXX” grossed $142,109,382 total.

His older films, like “Daylight”, “Dragonheart”, and “The Skulls”, didn’t make much at the box office, but improved his track record.

The cast is impressive, though none of the cast has proved to be box office draws. The biggest star of the cast is Academy Award winner, Jamie Foxx. He’s had his hits and misses, but is becoming more and more popular by the day. Here’s a look at his track record. The films highlighted are the ones where he had lead roles. When movies like “Booty Call” and “Any Given Sunday” came out, he was an unknown in the industry. Once he broke out of the comedy genre, he became well known, and by the time “Collateral” and “Ray” came out, he was pretty popular. As I stated before, it’s unknown whether he has any drawing power as of yet, but he’s been recognized for being a great actor. Other than “Collateral”, this is his only action movie, so he’s pretty much done every genre.

Jessica Biel has been in very few movies, with her biggest hit being “The Texas Chainsaw Massacre”. She has no drawing power. The last star is Josh Lucas, who has never really had a big lead role. This would be his first, and he’s very unknown. Jamie Foxx is the only one that can probably bring in a crowd, but even he can’t carry this movie. The cast doesn’t hurt the movie, but it doesn’t help much in this situation.

Box Office Effect: Neutral

Marketing and Theater Count

Marketing has been decent, though nothing to brag about in comparison to films like “Fantastic Four” and “Mr. and Mrs. Smith”. The trailer has been attached to a lot of new movies. I don’t see many commercials, though. This is obviously being aimed only at the teenage audience, so there’s not much that can be done. The trailers have a lot of money shots, which is a great thing to bring in the teenage audience. Sony is usually good with pushing their marketing on the big movies, so we should see an increase in commercials in the weeks ahead.

The current estimated theater count (from boxofficemojo.com) is 3,200 theaters. If this is true, that’s bigger than both of Cohen’s previous films, and a lot of summer action movies in general. It’s better that they have a large theater count because there won’t be many screens to go around. “Fantastic Four”, “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory”, “The Wedding Crashers”, “The Island”, and many other movies will have be fighting for the screens, which could limit the number of screens for “Stealth”. Still, 3,200 is a fantastic number to go with, and when the actual figures come out, this theater count could be in the 3,300-3,500 area.

Box Office Effect: Positive

Box Office Potential

The best comparison for “Stealth” will be “S.W.A.T.”. In August of ’03, “S.W.A.T.” opened to a respectable amount under $40 million. “S.W.A.T.” showed a lot of money shots in the marketing (same company, I believe), and the leads in “S.W.A.T.” were mostly all rising stars like in “Stealth”, with the exception of Samuel L. Jackson. “Stealth” has an estimated theater count higher than “S.W.A.T.”, as well as a better release date. “S.W.A.T.” earned a $11,500 PTA, so if we were to give the same amount to “Stealth”, it would earn about $40.2 million opening weekend. However, assuming that “S.W.A.T.” had a bigger audience thanks to the slightly better cast, “Stealth” should be in the $10,500-$11,000 range. Here’s my prediction for “Stealth’s” box office.

Even though this is a summer blockbuster, it should hold up well and achieve a 3x multiplier. “S.W.A.T.” got a 3.15x multiplier, “Bad Boys 2” got a 2.97x multiplier, and “XXX” got a 3.19x multiplier. “Stealth” should end up with around $105,000,000 by the end of its run.

The worst case scenario would be an opening weekend in the mid-to-high $20 millions and a total just under or just above $70 million. The best case scenario would be an opening weekend in the low-to-high $40 millions, and a total around $120-140 million.

“Stealth” flies into theaters July 29th, 2005.