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Everything is about to change at the box-office. Finally, a film will arrive that is destined to open over 90 million, the first since Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith, which opened to a spectacular 108 million.

Another 18 months, another director and another growth sprout for Harry Potter. The fourth film, directed by Mike Newell, is titled ‘Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire’, Mike Newell is known primarily for his romantic comedy ‘Four Weddings and a Funeral’. Since Prisoner of Azkaban (widely considered the best of the first three films), brought a different, darker, more sinister tone to the franchise, many were wondering if Newell would keep it. Based on the trailers it seems the dark tone is here to stay. But will it affect its gross? I don’t think so. Many believed that Revenge of the Sith would suffer due to its dark tone but it did the opposite. Sith was a huge hit, making $380 million domestically.

OPENING WEEKEND

Harry Potter is back to November, where I think it should’ve stay for the entire series (Azkaban is the sole summer Potter release). The first two have done quite well in November because of Holidays and winter break. The last three films have opened to enormous numbers. Here are the top ten opening weekends of all-time

Amazingly, all three of the Potter flicks managed a top ten opening in the all-time charts. The third managed the highest of the three at 93.7 million (4th overall ), note when released (June 2004) had 3rd highest after Spiderman and Shrek 2(opening 2 weeks prior). The first has the second highest opening weekend of the three at 90.3 million (6th overall), when Stone was released in 2001; it was the top opener of all-time. All of the films have opened through 88-94 million. So expect Goblet of Fire to open similarly.

Even if Azkaban was the highest opener in dollars; it was actually the lowest in ticket sales. Azkaban sold roughly 15.1 million tickets opening weekend, a decrease of a little under 1% from Chamber of Secrets (?15.2million). Sorcerer’s Stone sold about 15.95 million 6% higher than Azkaban’s. For Goblet of Fire to surpass Sorcerer’s Stone, it needs roughly 103 million dollars during its 3-day opening weekend. As much as I would love for that to occur, I think it’s out of reach.

Instead Goblet of Fire will do about the same as Azkaban during its opening weekend. To accomplish that, it needs to make about 96-97 million during its opening weekend. Due to the month, which is very kid friendly, see the chart below. That target is quite reachable.

MARKETING

The marketing for the Potter films is always top notch, and this one is no exception, though personally I thought the international trailers were better.

Overall: Positive

COMPETITION

The competition is there, both Zathura and Chicken Little are heavy marketed to children. I’m not worried because this is Harry Potter; it was able to pull off a 93 million dollar weekend on the heels of Shrek 2.

Overall: Not a problem

MY PREDICTIONS

I insanely over predicted Azkaban (120m) and I’m not going to make the same mistake here

HIGHEST EXTREME
Chances of happening: NOT TOO GOOD 0-20%
Opening Weekend- 104-110m
Total: 275-310m
Multiplier: 2.55-2.8
Explanation: With such a high opening, do not expect legs that are too good.

MIDDLE
Chances of Happening: Great 80-95%
Opening weekend: 94-97m
Total: 250-270m
Multiplier: 2.7-2.9
Explanation: This is the safest bet because it will most likely be in the same range as the third’s opening weekend and between or around the last twos totals.

LOWEST EXTREME
Chances of Happening: NOT TOO GOOD 0-10%
Opening Weekend: 85-90m
Total: 220-240m
Multiplier: 2.75-3.00
Analysis: Not going to happen, the series has stabled off, it will not fall that much again. There is always a chance but I doubt it.

PERSONAL PREDICTIONS

After that I expect about 75-100 million more to finish with a total of 250-270m. With a similar PTA as the first three a 96 million dollar weekend is highly possible. The Friday number shouldn’t be too high since it is November. The Saturday increase should be very small with a 30% dip on Sunday. The weekdays and weekend 2 are similar to HP1 as they were both released the same time. With a fantastic opening and solid total, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire is a much-needed break from months of low-performing films.