Mission Impossible 3 Box Office Preview

By: Zach Smith

The first weekend of May has been considered the beginning of the Summer box-office season for many years. Last year, the box-office suffered and experienced the weakest summer in years. However, studios hope to change that trend, and “Mission: Impossible III,” the anticipated sequel in the popular “Mission: Impossible” series, looks to start the season off with a bang. Let’s take a look at the box-office potential for “Mission: Impossible III.”

Release Date
The first weekend of the summer season is typically a weekend where studios want to release their biggest film. Films like “The Mummy Returns,” “Spider-Man,” “X2: X-Men United,” and “Van Helsing” have seen great success in the past few years. However, last year’s summer opening, “Kingdom of Heaven,” didn’t fare so well. The film opened to a little under $20 million, and the top twelve of the weekend registered a weak $78 million total, the weakest first weekend of May since 2000, when “Gladiator” opened. This is not expected to happen again. “Mission: Impossible II” opened on Memorial Day weekend in 2000 to an impressive $57.8 million opening weekend, plus an additional $21 million prior to the weekend. Obviously, because “M:I-3” isn’t opening on Wednesday or doesn’t have a long weekend to spread out the numbers, the first three days will be quite huge. If “M:I-2” had opened on Friday, an opening weekend above $70 million would have been likely.

May, in general, is a huge month for opening weekends. Here are the top opening weekends in May:

Out of the only four films to make $100 million opening weekend, three of those films opened in May. Most of the record openers and champions for the year come from the month of May as well. Both “Mission: Impossible” films found great success in May, obviously, and “M:I-3” looks to do the same.

Box-Office Effect: Extremely Positive

Competition

You can’t have a summer release date without a little competition, right? “M:I-3” isn’t in a bad situation, though. The weekend prior to “M:I-3,” the only significant film being released is “United 93,” a film that might do well, but not well enough to take away from the first big summer film. On the same weekend as “M:I-3,” we have two openers – “An American Haunting” and “Hoot.” “An American Haunting” might appeal to the same audience, but Freestyle Releasing, the company behind the film, is dropping the ball – or, just letting the film get dumped – by opening it against a big film. With little marketing and a small theater count, “An American Haunting” won’t make much noise. “Hoot” is a different audience, so it’ll have no affect on “M:I-3.”

The real competition comes in the weekends after “M:I-3” is released. In the second weekend, the summer’s big disaster flick, “Poseidon,” is to be released. “M:I-3” isn’t expected to have the best legs as it is, but with films like “Poseidon,” “The Da Vinci Code,” and “X-Men: The Last Stand” in the weeks after, “M:I-3” will lose more and more of its potential audience to other films.

Box-Office Effect: Neutral

Star Power

It’s obvious that Tom Cruise is a huge name in the box-office. In the last 14 years, the man has been the lead star in 14 films. Out of those 14, only three failed to make $100 million total – “Eyes Wide Shut,” “Magnolia,” and “Far and Away.” The first two films weren’t exactly of blockbuster status, and didn’t have enough appeal to attract Cruise’s fanbase. “Far and Away” only grossed $59 million, but in 1992, that’s a hit. Obviously, Tom Cruise is a box-office draw. He’s also the perfect guy to play the role of Ethan Hunt in the film. If he were replaced (like Vin Diesel was replaced by Ice Cube in “XXX: State of the Union”), the film would not do well.

Tom Cruise has also had a lot of media attention lately. The good part of his attention is his relationship with Katie Holmes. Then, there’s the bad attention he gets. When the name Cruise is mentioned, words like “nut,” “crazy,” “weirdo,” and other such words are mentioned. His “crazy-phase,” which started from last summer around “War of the Worlds” release, stretches on until even now. Will his antics affect “M:I-3?” It’s questionable. Obviously, “War of the Worlds” had no trouble grossing over $230 million last summer, despite his antics. However, that was also just the beginning of his phase, and after a year, it’s hard to tell whether it can have any kind of affect on the box-office. His actions have even been spoofed in the latest film, “Scary Movie 4.” Still, though, Tom Cruise is one of the biggest box-office draws today, and although he has a little negative media attention, fans of “M:I-3” will likely still see the flick for his Ethan Hunt character, which only he can pull off.

Box-Office Effect: Positive

Marketing / Theater Count

“Mission: Impossible III” is Paramount’s biggest film of the summer. Paramount isn’t going to let the film go with underwhelming marketing. The first teaser was released way back in December with all prints of “King Kong,” and ever since then, the teaser/trailer have been attached to the year’s biggest films so far. The trailer features enough money shots to draw the crowd back. “M:I-3” also had an impressive Superbowl spot in February.

In terms of theater count, expect quite a large number of theaters for this film. Back in 1996, Paramount released “Mission: Impossible” set the theater count record with 3,012 theaters, the first film to ever be released in over 3,000 theaters domestically. In 2000, “Mission: Impossible II” set the record theater count with an amazing 3,653 theaters. These days, a count like that is good, but not record type of counts. If Paramount gave “M:I-2” that many theaters six years ago, it’s extremely unlikely that “M:I-3” will have less theaters than that. Last summer, Paramount released “War of the Worlds,” another Tom Cruise flick, in 3,908 theaters. A similar count should be expected for “M:I-3.” Look for a minimum of 3,800 theaters, with a good chance of breaking the 4,000 barrier.

Securing a large number of screens should be no problem for the film. “United 93,” “The Sentinel,” “Silent Hill,” and “Scary Movie 4” will all lose a significant number of screens when “M:I-3” is released. But it won’t be able to keep those screens for long, considering the competition weeks later.

Box-Office Effect: Positive

Thoughts / Final Predictions
“Mission: Impossible III” is in the best possible position to do well. With a lead like Tom Cruise (despite his negative media attention), a release date in the first weekend of May, and a large fanbase from the first two films, it’s hard to imagine “M:I-3” doing poorly. Competition will be rough in the weeks after, but for the opening weekend, there is nothing stopping it from pulling in huge numbers.

“Mission: Impossible” opened to $45.4 million in 1996, a per-theater-average (PTA) of $15,085. However, it opened on Wednesday and on Memorial Day weekend, so the weekend was significantly less than it could have been. “Mission: Impossible” earned $18 million prior to the weekend. “Mission: Impossible II” also opened on a Wednesday and Memorial Day weekend. It opened to $57.8 million in 2000, a PTA of $15,835. It made $21 million prior to the weekend. “Mission: Impossible III” does not open on Wednesday or Memorial Day weekend, however, so the circumstances will be a bit different. The three-day weekend will be a lot higher, along with the PTA. When the Wednesday and Thursday PTA’s are added to the first and second film’s weekend PTA, the total PTA is closer to $20,000. A similar PTA should be expected for “M:I-3” over the three-day weekend alone. Assuming the theater count will be 3,800, look for an opening weekend around $75 million. The legs aren’t expected to be big, so with that opening weekend, a $190-200 million total is in order.

The low end of the spectrum would be a $65-70 million opening weekend and $160-175 million total. The high end of the spectrum would be around $80 million for the weekend and $220 million total.

My Prediction:

Have something to say about the article? Sound off at our forum.

Click here to read more box office previews.