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The holiday season has officially begun, and with it comes epics, sequels, and remakes attempting to bring a so far lackluster year out of the box-office slump. Peter Jackson returns to familiar December grounds with a remake to the 1933 classic, “King Kong.” Will “King Kong” reach the heights of Jackson’s blockbuster “The Lord of the Rings” trilogy? Or will the disappointments of 2005 continue to linger into the new year?
Let’s take a look at the potential box-office for “King Kong” this holiday season.
Release Date
It comes as no surprise that director Peter Jackson and Universal wanted to grab the third weekend in December, similar to “The Fellowship of the Ring” in 2001, “The Two Towers” in 2002, and “The Return of the King” in 2003. This holiday weekend is perfect for blockbusters because a film released on this weekend gets to take full advantage of the Christmas weekend to follow, helping the legs of the film. Similar to “Lord of the Rings,” “Kong” will be released on a Wednesday, giving it five days to make its mark before the schools are out. “The Fellowship of the Ring” opened to $75.1 million over five days, “The Two Towers” opened to $102 million over five days, and “The Return of the King” opened to $124.1 million. Here’s a look at the top December opening weekends:
While December is great for the right type of films (tentpole blockbusters like LOTR), the month is more about legs with Christmas giving even the most frontloaded and otherwise unspectacular film like “Blade: Trinity” or “Star Trek: Insurrection” good legs. “King Kong” will benefit in a big, big way here. Here’s a look at the box-office multipliers for various December openers:
Multipliers (without previous total for Wednesday openers)
The Return of the King: 4.48x
The Two Towers: 4.83x
The Fellowship of the Ring: 6.05x
Meet the Fockers: 5.52x
Multipliers are generally large for films released around Christmas. “King Kong” should be no exception, though it will not reach the multipliers of these films, either.
Box Office Effect: Positive
Competition
Competition is a bit heavy for “King Kong,” though nothing really threatens its potential. “Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire” recently opened to the fourth highest opening weekend ever, but by the time “Kong” arrives, Potter’s weekend’s should be under $10 million. Other holdovers are “Aeon Flux” and “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe.” “Aeon Flux” looks to be the next action bomb and shouldn’t affect “Kong” one bit, while “Narnia” looks to take the giant ape head-on. Big numbers are expected for “Narnia” since it caters a marketplace going through LOTR withdrawal. “Narnia” will also benefit from spillover since some potential audience members will fall victim to “Kong” sell outs. The effect, however, will be minimal. There’s enough room for both films to co-exist. “King Kong” releases the same week as “The Family Stone,” which might attract the female audience. In the weeks following “Kong”, many new releases will enter the fray, the biggest threat of all coming from Jim Carrey’s newest comedy, “Fun with Dick and Jane.” “Return of the King” also faced competition in 2003, but the numbers of releases were not nearly as intense. All things considered, the effect won’t be devastating. It’s more likely that the other films will benefit from “King Kong” sell-outs on opening week.
Box Office Effect: Neutral
Star Power
“King Kong” has a decent cast, including Jack Black, Naomi Watts, and Adrian Brody. However, their drawing powers are limited. Out of the three, Jack Black probably has the brightest star, but he’s not a proven draw as of yet. However, “King Kong” doesn’t need big draws to succeed as “Lord of the Rings” wasn’t successful because of its cast. The real star of the film is the big guy himself, King Kong. The biggest draw outside of Kong, is director/co-writer Peter Jackson. I know it’s hard to imagine, but the guy does have a fan base. There’s a good chance that “Lord of the Rings” fans will also support this film, mainly due to Peter Jackson being involved in the picture.
Box Office Effect: Positive
Marketing/Theater Counts
Marketing, so far, has been fantastic. The trailer to “King Kong” was attached to many of the big summer and fall films. Commercials have been running everywhere, and AMC is even shows a small feature about the making and inspiration of “King Kong” during their pre-show. The film has made an appearance on several buzz-tracking resources (such as Yahoo! Buzz Chart) more than a month before its release, showing that there is a high awareness for the film. Universal has given “King Kong” one of the strongest marketing campaigns I’ve seen this year.
Considering the amount of effort going into the marketing, the theater count should be strong. Universal isn’t the best company for giving films large theater counts. The biggest count a Universal film has received was 3,660 for “Hulk” back in the summer of 2003, which is good, but a far cry from the record theater counts other companies give their films. There is a good chance that Universal will give “Kong” a theater count in the 3,600 range, with a decent chance at giving “Kong” a record theater count for the company. I think the absolute minimum is 3,400 and the maximum would be around 3,700. Once the count hits a certain point (around 3,400, at least), the difference doesn’t matter much. At that point, “Kong” must be able to acquire a great amount of screens. The only films that’ll take away screens on the weekend “Kong” opens is “The Chronicles of Narnia” and “The Family Stone.” If “Narnia” is big, it’ll give “Kong” a fight for the screens, and although “Kong” should average more screens per theater that weekend, it might not reach its full potential. It all depends on how successful “Narnia” is the weekend before.
Box-Office Effect: Positive
Final Thoughts/Box-Office Prediction
“King Kong” has a lot of advantages. Peter Jackson’s name should easily bring in fans. Fans of the original film (or King Kong in general) should also come in large numbers. The month of December should give “King Kong” a very good multiplier, unlike the summer, where it would have been very frontloaded. The strong marketing should pay off for Universal, and if the theater count is right, “King Kong” will have nothing to worry about except competition from “Narnia,” “Fun with Dick and Jane,” and a few other films.
Expectations are high for “King Kong” to save the box-office, and it does seem like “Kong” can do it. Given the amount of hype, the Wednesday release, and the fact that “Kong” should be frontloaded, a PTA close to “Fantastic Four” and “War of the Worlds” from earlier this year seem likely for the 3-day weekend. This PTA would also be a little higher than “The Fellowship of the Ring,” but the general hype seems to be much bigger. “King Kong” should be able to accumulate around $35 million from Wednesday and Thursday alone. The 3-day weekend should be in the range of $55-60 million, and with the addition gross, the 5-day figure should be around $90-95 million. “Return of the King,” the most frontloaded of the “Lord of the Rings” series, made 33% of its total gross on its opening five-day weekend. Including the competition and assuming that “Kong” is more frontloaded, the total gross for “Kong” should be in the range of $240-260 million.
The low range for “King Kong” would be around $45-50 million for the 3-day weekend, $75-80 million for the 5-day, and around $210-230 million total. The high range would be around $65-70 million for the 3-day, $100-110 million for the 5-day, and $260-280 million total. There’s a good possibility that “King Kong” will surpass $300 million total, but it will need some fantastic word-of-mouth to accomplish this. It’s not out of the question, though.
Final Prediction
Opening Weekend: $55 million (3-day) / $90 million (5-day)
Domestic Total: $250 million
“King Kong” opens on December 14, 2005.
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