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Well, it’s that time of the year again, folks – Hollywood is releasing another fantasy novel adaptation in hopes of turning it into a very successful franchise. Helmed by Andrew Adamson, who previously directed both Shrek films, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe is Disney’s answer to New Line’s “Lord of the Rings” and WB’s “Harry Potter” franchises, both of which raked in enormous profits for Time Warner, Inc. As with those franchises, Narnia has a huge built-in fan base which consists of millions of fans around the world.

THE STORY

Synopsis

The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, the first of seven books in the Narnia series, is a story of four children – Peter, Edmund, Susan and Lucy – who are sent away from London to the home of Professor Digory Kirke in the English countryside during World War II. Inside the house the children discover a wardrobe that leads to the magical world of Narnia. Before long, they discover that Narnia is being held in perpetual winter by the magic of the evil White Witch, and the key to breaking the spell lies with the children themselves, who are aided by Aslan, the god-like lion.

Christian themes

It is important to keep in mind that The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe is, essentially, a Christian story set in a different world. To Lewis, Aslan was not a god in whom perceptive readers would find Christ-like qualities; Aslan was Christ himself who came to Narnia in the lion form. Likewise, the Gospel allegories in the story are not buried, but instead are right on the surface for anyone even remotely familiar with the Bible to be able to recognize them. This has made The Chronicles of Narnia accepted among the various Christian communities – very much the opposite of the Harry Potter series.

BOX OFFICE

Release Date

LWW comes out on December 9th and is the only wide release that weekend. In fact, the only serious competition for the movie will come from Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, which will be in its fourth weekend by that time. This virtually guarantees Narnia the #1 spot in the box office that week. It will very likely be bumped to the #2 spot the following weekend by Peter Jackson’s King Kong.

Top Ten December Openings (movies similar to LWW highlighted)

Fantasy Movies Comparison

LWW first and foremost is a fantasy novel adaptation and, as noted earlier, Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter franchises should offer the most insight as to how well the movie will do. It should be noted, however, that while Narnia has a built-in fan base, it is not as large as either of the aforementioned series. Both Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings have more than 100 million books sold, while Narnia books have a combined sales total of just over 65 million.

LOTR and Harry Potter Franchises Comparison

Christian Effect
LWW is the first significant Christian-themed movie to follow the astounding success of The Passion of the Christ. TPOTC opened on February 24, 2004 with $83 million on its opening weekend and eventually went on to gather $370 million in domestic receipts, with a worldwide total of $612 million. Much of the interest in that movie was fueled by the controversy surrounding allegations of anti-semitism and unnecessary portrayal of violence. These and other issues are virtually absent in regard to LWW. However the Narnia series have always been subject to criticism over alleged racism, misogyny and intolerance towards non-Christian religions. While this might turn some potential moviegoers away, this impact will be very insignificant. On the other hand, the endorsements LWW has received from numerous Christian groups will no doubt bring in a great many viewers that might not have gone for the other fantasy adaptations, especially the Harry Potter movies.

Star Power and Marketing

LWW features a cast of relative unknowns. That fact has not had any significant effect on either the Harry Potter or The Lord of the Rings franchises, so it likely won’t deter any potential viewers from this movie either. Disney has done a good job portraying this movie as this year’s version to The Lord of the Rings, complete with epic battle scenes and the emphasis on the beautiful New Zealand landscapes. They are also apparently making an effort to reach out to Evangelical moviegoers, who are traditionally opposed to the Disney fare. Overall, the marketing efforts seem to be generating enough buzz to propel this movie to the top of the holiday season moviegoers’ lists.

MY TAKE

While I am eagerly awaiting The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, I do not believe it packs enough punch to overcome the recent strong performance by the Goblet of Fire. The Evangelical moviegoers may make a strong appearance in the theaters the same way they did at the voting booths last year, but that will not be enough to overcome the big difference between the built in fan bases of the Harry Potter franchise and the Narnia series. On top of that, the market may very well be saturated with fantasy adaptations – the same trend that we have recently seen with comic book movies and with CGI-animation. It may be asking an occasional viewer too much to familiarize him- or herself with yet another fantasy world.

My Predictions

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