Peter Jackson made Oscar history throughout the 2000’s. The reception given to his Lord of the Rings trilogy was not unlike that given to Francis Ford Coppola’s Godfather trilogy. However, whereas the third Godfather film limped into the sunset (while still somehow grabbing a slew of Oscar nominations), the final Lord of the Rings film, Return of the King, earned 11 Oscar nominations, winning all 11 (a rare clean sweep). In total, Jackson’s Lord of the Rings trilogy brought in 30 Oscar nominations, 17 Oscar wins, and around $3 billion in box-office receipts worldwide. 

Following that level of success isn’t easy. Steven Spielberg has yet to recapture the echelon of Schindler’s List (his other WWII opus Saving Private Ryan came awfully close). James Cameron just recently announced his feature film follow up to the extraordinarily successful Titanic. Cameron needed nearly a decade to find his footing. But that’s the price to pay for setting the bar to Mt. Olympus. There was little doubt in the film community as to what Peter Jackson’s follow-up film would be.  

King Kong has been an obsession since childhood for Jackson. He attempted and failed to bring the beast to the screen in the mid 1990’s. But with new found clout, hurdles were quickly cleared. At a reported cost of $207 million, Kong swings into theatres on December 14th. The question on everyone’s mind is… can he recapture the spirit of Lord of the Rings? And if so, will golden days follow? 

Best Picture: 

King Kong, like Titanic, has carved a nice niche for itself. It’s bigger and better (judging from its 95% RT rating,  92% COTC – as of December 13) than it’s nearest competitors. The AMPAS would be hard pressed not to throw its support behind Kong in the Best Picture category. In a climate of sagging ratings and diminished box office receipts, a film like Kong is sorely needed to boost the overall health of the Oscars. The field though is paved with obstacles. The good news - Jarhead and Memoirs imploded on arrival. The bad - that leaves the likes of Walk The Line, Brokeback Mountain, The New World, Match Point, and of course Munich. A nomination is a near certainty. But the big prize depends heavily on a PGA win.  

Chance of a nomination: High 90’s

Chance of a win: If Kong could only overcome Munich and Brokeback Mountain. A PGA win here is a MUST. 

Best Director: 

Peter Jackson has been nominated twice before in this category, winning for Return of the King (oddly enough, The Two Towers failed to score a Best Director nod). The competition is stiff this year. Spielberg’s won twice before and Munich may add another win to his column. Ang Lee is seen by some as due but Brokeback is no Crouching Tiger in terms of directing demands, and that’s a hard fact to overcome. There are also spoil sports like David Cronenberg, whose masterful work in A History of Violence is a career high. Add to the mix wunderkind George Clooney for Good Night, and Good Luck, and Woody Allen’s departure of form known as Match Point, a win here would be tough, but not impossible. 

Chance of a nomination: Mid to high 90’s

Chance of a win: If PJ wins at the DGA, the Oscar is his. 

Best Acting: 

The Lord of the Rings films would have benefited from a Best Ensemble category (hopefully it will be in place by the time The Hobbit hits screens). Sir Ian McKellan scored a nom as Galdalf in Fellowship of the Ring, and despite chatter of Sean Astin and Andy Serkis’ work in Return of the King, neither had enough support for nominations. For Kong, because of an unusually weak year in the Best Actress category, in addition to great early critical response, Naomi Watts has a tight grasp on a nomination. But a win; well, the grasp ain’t so tight.  

An eternal struggle of age vs. beauty is in store and Watts is in the thick of it. Reese Witherspoon’s turn as June Carter in Walk the Line has tongues wagging, as does Keira Knightley complete ownership of the Elizabeth character in Pride and Prejudice. Then there’s Dame Judi Dench in Mrs. Henderson Presents. Her body of work ensures lots of SAG support. Naomi Watts has her work cut out for her. Her role, after all, revolves around a giant gorilla. But imaginary beasties didn’t stop Sigourney Weaver.

Chance of a nomination: Mid 90’s

Chance of a win: Not so great 

The Rest: 

King Kong ’s total nominations should fall somewhere between Fellowship of the Ring and Return of the King. I foresee the following nominations (in addition to Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor): 

Best Editing – mid 90’s (Past support points to a repeat nomination)

Best Cinematography – mid 90’s (Kong looks great and will more than likely find strong support here)

Best Costume –high 90’s (Period piece and past support makes this a near lock)

Best Makeup – mid 90’s (Like Lord of the Rings, much love will be found)

Best Art Direction – high 90’s (Kong is all about the sets so expect a nomination and a likely win)

Best Score – mid 80’s (Last minute switch of Newton for Shore has me very worried)

Best Sound - Lock

Best Sound Editing - Lock

Best SFX - Lock 

King Kong’s total nominations should fall between Fellowship of the Ring and Return of the King with 12 total. Taking into account strong guild support, Kong should win no fewer than 6 Oscars total, with a ceiling of 9-10.