December 21, 2006
Brokeback Mountain Oscar Preview
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Everyone and anyone who follows the movie industry’s big releases, buzz, casting news, etc. has surely heard of Brokeback Mountain by now, only it was referred to as “the gay cowboy movie.” Well, ever since the Venice film festival, where it won the prize for Picture of the Year, Brokeback Mountain has made an indelible splash in not only the movie industry and movie-going audience but also in mainstream America’s society and conversations.
In what seems like a prime year for a weak crop of movies, Brokeback stood a chance to be somewhat recognized in the Oscar race this year. Fortunately for Brokeback, all the big Oscar hyped films started receiving detrimental buzz from critics across America. Jarhead was the first to go, Memoirs of a Geisha followed, and suddenly Munich started screening to not-so enthused audiences. All the meanwhile, Brokeback Mountain held onto its unanimous early praise and started building on it, winning top prizes from LAFCA, BSFCA, and NYFCC and continued praise and raves from critics. The word was in: Brokeback Mountain was the front-runner at the first stage of the 2005-2006 Oscar race.
What’s remarkable about Mountain is not how frankly it deals with its subject matter but how the studio has dealt with its marketing and Oscar campaigning. With a truly remarkable opening weekend gross, Brokeback Mountain is on the final stretch of its climb up the steepest mountain in film this year: winning the hearts of mainstream America. If it does, it will be standing high while the rest of the films struggle to reach its feet. The question remains how long it can stay up at the top and whether Munich, now gaining substantial positive buzz, but nowhere near the love critics’ circles have given Mountain, will gain the momentum to knock it down in March.
The following is a category by category breakdown of its chances at glory by yours truly.
Best Picture
Nomination: 100%
The tremendous amount of buzz and love shown for this film has erased any chance of a snub. Therefore, the bigger question remains: will it have what it takes to win? Having seen the film, I would say it’s going to be a tough call to vote for it. It’s not your usual Oscar fodder, though it has some key elements such as the long-time suffering wives. What completely invalidates my view that few voters will place it as their first choice is the sheer number of wins it has already collected from different critics’ circles. The film it most resembles from years past is Sideways, which also swept nearly all of the pre-Oscar awards. However, Sideways had an edge, its comedic appeal, but it was also up against two behemoths of Oscar contenders: the grand epic Aviator and the heart stealing Million Dollar Baby. The only competition that Brokeback faces is Munich which, still just tad early to tell, will reach neither Brokeback’s record of solid reviews nor the love all the award circles, including the Golden Globes have shown. Since this has been a great year for small films to break out, I wouldn’t count out Good Night, and Good Luck as a formidable competitor for the top trophy either.
Win: 55%
Best Director
Nomination: 100%
I don’t think there is any argument against a nod for this one. Ang Lee has, just like the film itself, won more prizes and nominations thus far than any other director. What gives Ang Lee an even larger boost in the race to the finish is the fact that although Munich seems to be Brokeback’s main competition, Spielberg already has 2 statues on his mantle and nobody seems to think the Academy will be too keen on awarding him a third one when the film won’t be receiving unanimous praise and while he’s still at the top of his game. The only other competitors worth mentioning are George Clooney and Woody Allen if Match Point gains tremendous ground in the next stage of the race.
Win: 80%
Best Actor
Nomination: 100%
Heath Ledger has his nomination all locked up, and along with Philip Seymor Hoffman, has received the most praise and outstanding reviews of the year. Notoriously overlooked throughout the years, Hoffman, in Capote, gives one of the showiest and most astounding performances of the year. Ledger, on the other hand, is being commended for his subtle yet powerful execution of the lonely Ennis Delmar. The race will hang on whether the Academy will overlook Hoffman for the hundredth time and go for the quietly effective performance by Heath or if, for the second year in a row, they award the more showy and vibrant act. Although Joaquin Pheonix received quite a number of solid reviews for his work as becoming late country legend Johnny Cash, the former two performances have taken his thunder and drowned him out. However, the race between Hoffman and Ledger might just get tight enough that they bring each other down and the prize might go to a second consecutive impersonation of a music legend.
Win: 35%
Best Supporting Actor
Nomination: 75%
This year’s Supporting categories are completely up in the air with almost no sure fire nominees even this late in the race. If the Academy decides to show Brokeback any kind of support, it will be evident in this category. Gyllenhaal has also seen his name mentioned in multiple critics’ awards and nods in the past month but no doubt is overshadowed by his leading star. The race is not so much weak as it is crowded with not-completely-stellar performances. This is where Jake has an edge: his performance is very distinct, memorable, and large enough to be in contention for the win as well. However, the Academy might still see him as too young and a nomination a good start for a luminous career before him. The spotlight in this category is on Clooney, with a great supporting turn just at the moment when he is making a smooth transition to writing/directing. His directing in Good Night will help elevate his chances in this category. The best case scenario for a Jake win would have to be an almost complete Brokeback sweep, which is highly unlikely.
Win: 15%
Best Supporting Actress
Nomination: 90%
I think this might be the category least contingent on whether the Academy will show support for Mountain. This is the one aspect of the film that everyone seems to love and call superb. Michelle Williams delivers the perfect performance opposite Heath Ledger as the confused, suffering wife. When reviewing over the other possible nominees for this category, Williams seems to be in quite a good position to have a decent chance of winning this. Among her main competitors are Diane Keaton, Scarlet Johanson, and Amy Adams. Johanson wasn’t even given a nod for her well-played turn in Lost in Translation, so one wonders if she has that good a chance to win. It’s also fair to point out that while she is getting some praise for this one, others, such as Richard Roeper, are claiming she plays stiff while the other actors around her resonate with character vitality. Amy Adams has received tremendous buzz for her work in the tiny film Junebug. Although she has also racked up a few awards under her belt, I’m not sure if its enough for her to go all the way; a nomination, however, is all but assured. I think it will come down to Keaton and Williams. Although Keaton is very good and the emotional core for The Family Stone, I do think Williams delivers the better performance. Keaton, though, has much longer history and the Academy on her side. So…
Win: 45%
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nomination: 100%
Shoe-in for a nod and probably the front-runner for the win at this point. Its main competition is Munich and Capote. If Munich looks to be leaving without much, they may award it here; plus it’s by Tony Kushner who won endless awards for writing Angels in America. But many people have indeed praised the adaptation for Mountain, saying they took it from a very short story and transformed it into something grand. It has a better shot of winning this than the top prize, in my opinion. Or maybe I say that because I don’t think it will win the top prize and so they’ll give it this.
Win: 60%
And the rest…
Best Score
Nomination: 95%
A truly amazing score that haunts you after you see the movie. Simple yet effective in many scenes. I haven’t heard Munich’s score yet, so this may end up being a bit too high if we get another great delivery from John Williams.
Win: 60%
Cinematography
Nod: 85%
Win: 40%
Editing
Nod: 85%
Win: 30%
Makeup
Nod: 65%
Win: 15%
Art Direction
Nod: 65%
Win: 25%
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