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Box Office Prediction
Weekend Box Office Predictions (Aug 10 - 12, 2007)
Yun Xia
Rank |
Movie Name |
Predicted Gross |
1 |
Rush Hour 3 |
$70.0m ($18,528 PTA) |
2 |
The Bourne Ultimatum |
$33.0m (-52.4%) |
3 |
Stardust |
$12.0m ($4,724 PTA) |
4 |
The Simpsons Movie |
$12.0m (-52.2%) |
5 |
Underdog |
$6.5m (-43.9%) |
6 |
Hairspray |
$6.0m (-35.0%) |
7 |
I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry |
$6.0m (-43.5%) |
8 |
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix |
$5.5m (-42.2%) |
9 |
Daddy Day Camp |
$3.8m ($1,630 PTA) |
10 |
No Reservations |
$3.8m (-42.3%) |
Talking Points
- Both Rush Hour and its sequel blew past industry's expectations and set new benchmarks for their respective months at the time. However, skepticism remains for the third installment, backed by Major Theater Chain's tracking number and weak advance sales. Is the six-year period too long? Has the franchise overstayed its welcome? People wonder. Be prepared to be surprised yet again. Despite average critic reviews, both of the first two earned an A from CinemaScore and exhibited good to excellent legs, so no indication the audience is tired of this east-west combo. More importantly, the film taps into several vastly under-served demographics, in particular the urban and Asian population, and urban films are notoriously hard to track. It is not uncommon to see them turn poor online poll numbers (e.g. over 50% Never at BOM) into $25m+ openers. By comparison, Rush Hour 3's signs are plenty strong: 26.4% Opening Weekend at BOM, early appearance at Moviefone, and the second most watched trailer at Yahoo with a buzz score of 11. Currently there is little direct competition, and a short runtime allows it to have enough showings without the benefit of extra screens. Expect it to re-claim the August crown with a $70m weekend.
- On the plus side, Stardust has good reviews as well as fine poll numbers (14.1% OW and 21.7% Sometime in Theaters at BOM); on the minus side, it is mostly showing only on one screen, even in the bigger 20- and 25-screen theaters, so the upward potential is limited. Look for a per-screen-average in the $4,500-5,000 range and around $12m for the weekend.
- As expected, Daddy Day Camp was dead-on-arrival on Wednesday, earning just $773,706 in 2,184 theaters. At least it should not fall much further on Thursday, and with an addition of 148 locations (a decision those managers will probably regret), a reasonable Friday increase of 70% could be expected. That will translate into a 5-day total of a little over $5m and secure Cuba Gooding, Jr. a Razzie nomination.
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