Box Office Prediction
Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jun 8 - 10, 2007)
Yun Xia

Talking Points

- Ocean's Eleven and Ocean's Twelve had the same release date three years apart and opened to very similar numbers ($38.1 million in 3,075 theaters for the former and $39.2m in 3,290 for the latter). However, the two had drastically different legs due to word-of-mouth. Eleven had an overall multiplier of 4.8, while Twelve finished with only 3.2, which is terrible for a December release. Twelve also has a B- user grade at Yahoo and 6.0 at IMDb, both quite low for a blockbuster. All these signal disaster for another installment of the series, as bad WOM tends to show its strongest negative effect on the next film, but the signs are looking up for Thirteen heading into the weekend. First, Warner Brothers has done an excellent marketing campaign with effective trailers that remind people more of the first film. Second, this is summer, where movie-goers are more craved of stars and in the mood for such light entertainment. Third, the reviews are surprisingly positive, and that will help to allure some adults back. These factors should help to offset the negative feelings toward the second film and push its opening to be in the same neighborhood again.

- Surf's Up has a strong theater count (3,528) and plenty of screens per location, but the interest level has been low. Its poll numbers at Box Office Mojo show 8.3% Opening Weekend and 16.6% Sometime in Theaters, only on par with Open Season and Flushed Away and trailing Meet the Robinsons. No other indicators suggest it will break out either. The reviews are reasonably good, but after Madagascar and Happy Feet, we could be seeing a penguin fatigue. Shrek the Third, although on its fourth weekend, will still provide some decent competition. Look for a per-theater-average around $5,500 and a $19m weekend.

- Released in January of last year, Hostel slashed its way to a potent $19.6m opening in 2,195 theaters. With a production budget of $4.8m, we knew right away a sequel is on the way. However, Hostel experienced pretty awful word-of-mouth, indicated by its C+ Yahoo average and 5.* IMDb score, and the anticipation for the sequel suffered. Hostel Part II's BOM poll numbers trailed its predecessor and are similar to what The Hitchers had. In addition, the film has been made available on the Internet for a couple of weeks now. It will be hard pressed to break into the double digit.

- Knocked Up's daily pattern since it opened compares well with recent R-rated comedies that had great WOM such as Wedding Crashers and The 40-Year-Old Virgin. Its first Wednesday gross is 37% of the opening Friday number, identical to how The 40-Year-Old Virgin performed and well ahead of the 24% The Break-Up had the same time frame last year. In fact, it already nudged past The Break-Up in midweek. Even though there will be some direct competition from Ocean's Thirteen, with an 100% Friday increase and a good internal multiplier, Knocked Up could still be looking at a $22-23m weekend, enough to keep the runner-up position.

- The other new wide releases from last weekend will not hold nearly as well. With 57% of the audience female and and 67% over the age of 30, Mr. Brooks does have a recipe for good legs; however, its reviews are only mediocre, and with a middling opening average of $4,083, it will have much more trouble holding onto its screens. A 43% drop will put it at $5.7m. Gracie, on the other hand, has an even more dire situation. A lot of theaters are going to reduce the number of showings for it starting Friday, and it was only on one screen in practically all its theaters to begin with. 71 theaters are dropping it outright, while some are giving it just one showing during the day to fulfill the two-week obligation. For a closer examination, it had a $129 PTA on Wednesday, which translates to about 5 people per show. Let's say it will jump 80% to 9 people per show on Friday, but with only 2.5 shows per day (estimated) instead of 4.2, it will only translate back to a $135 average, so we are looking at a tiny Thursday-to-Friday increase at best and could actually see a drop, which happened to some films before. That would lead to a 70% weekend plunge.

- Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End had a Wednesday-to-Wednesday drop of 45.7%. As we move deeper into June, the Friday and Saturday increases are getting smaller, so we should expect the weekend drop to be bigger, in the 52% range. The Wednesday-to-Wednesday drop for Shrek the Third was only 27.3%, but it has to face Surf's Up, and family film is one place where direct competition shows the most effect. An over 40% drop should be in store, and same for Spider-Man 3. Waitress suffered last weekend due to Knocked Up, and it should recover some and keep its PTA above $2,000.

Comments (There are no comments to show.)