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Box Office Prediction
Weekend Box Office Predictions (May 4 - 6th, 2007)
Yun Xia

Rank
Movie Name
Predicted Gross
1
Spider Man 3
$150.0m
2
Disturbia
$5.1m
3
Lucky You
$5.0m
4
Fracture
$3.5m
5
Next
$3.1m
6
The Invisible
$2.9m
7
Hot Fuzz
$2.8m
8
Blades of Glory
$2.7m
9
Meet the Robinsons
$2.7m
10
Vacancy
$1.7m

Talking Points

- The box office heading into May is as weak as we have seen in years, allowing Spider-Man 3 the opportunity to grab record number of screens all over the country in a completely empty marketplace.

- Adjusted to inflation, the $31,768 PTA that Spider-Man 1 gobbled up would equal to $35,978 today (if we use the estimated average price of $6.58 this year and $5.81 back in 2002)

- The sales of midnight showings are well ahead of the pace for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man´s Chest; it could get $14m on midnight alone and break $60m on the opening day.

- Lucky You attempts to position itself as counter-programming, but Spider-Man 3 attracts all demographics, and its marketing push has been very weak.

- When Spider-Man opened 5 years ago on the same weekend, the holdovers generally fell harder than the previous weekend, with a few suffering over 60% drops; similar patterns should emerge here.

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