Prediction above for span between 2/11/2011 and 2/13/2011

After record breaking ratings for Superbowl last week, movie theaters hit a record low at the box office for Superbowl weekend this century.  This weekend, four movies appealling to different demographics will hopefully bring attendance up after suffering a bigger defeat than Pittsburgh.

Adam Sandler returns to his usual antics in "Just Go With It."  In addition to attracting his fanbase, the romatic comedy will also try to duplicate the past successes of other rom-coms on Valentines weekend (like Hitch, Valentine's Day, and most comparable of all, 50 First Dates).  This time around, the comedy will not be as big of a hit as 50 First Dates mostly because of it's somewhat awkward title.  The per theater average will go a little lower than usual for Sandler, but still nothing to complain about, since Monday's gross will be so strong that it will almost be like a 4-day weekend for this.

Like Hannah Montana, Justin Bieber will steal the hearts, and their allowence money, from young girls.  With a higher theater count, and some theaters not showing it in 3D nor are they charging the $15 (okay, maybe some places are) that Miley had for it's 3D formats, the per theater average will be significanlty lower than than Hannah.  The per theater average should be closer to Jonas since like that concert pic, it has a narrower demographic than Hannah.  And shows are not selling out as much in advance as Hannah either (none of the midnight shows sold out in the West Coast btw), meaning that it is more niche audience than anything.  I gave it a pta of just under 10k with good reviews, but the theater count is very high, and it will do huge in certain areas, but mediocre in others.

Gnomeo, oh Gnomeo, where are thou Gnomeo.  In the backyard of course in this Toy Story ripoff.  With no kid-pics for a long time, it will have the market to itself, but do people want to see it.  Like other recent 3D family films, the 3D will be a distraction with families not wanting to pay the surcharge, and based on the premise, it is not worth the investment.  It will follow the pattern of recent 3D family films with a pta in the high 3k range.

The Eagle will have a tough time in the marketplace.  This movie will try to play to both genders, with action for guys, and hunky muscles for the females.  Unfornately, the marketing is not very strong, with most theaters only single booking the movie, neither is the premise.  Competition is already too strong from the other openers, and has the lowest starpower of any opener.  Reviews are bad as well, in which is this kind of film, does matter.  Only the gross gender will lift this film to a pta in the low 3k range.

Among holdovers, yours truly was spot on with my predictions for last weeks openers.  Yay me.  Under normal circumstances, the Roommate would have dropped in the high 50% range with mediocre WOM (like Prom Night), but with Superbowl Sunday putting a huge dent in it's weekend gross, this Sunday gross should be more stable bringing it's weekend drop in the low 50% range.  Sanctum is a little trickier.  It could either drop moderately bad, or fall flat on it's face.  Like Roommate, WOM is not that great.  So I gave it a drop in the mid 50% range.  King's Speech should continue to have Friday and Saturday declines in the low 20% range, but should see an increase on Sunday vs. last Sunday, leading to only a 14% decline.  No String's Attached will have a stolen audience from Sandler and friends.  The Friday drop should be in the 40% range, but with Sunday looking to be significantly better, especially with the potential high gross on Monday, it should stablize it's drop in the mid 30% range.  Green Hornet will lose alot of 3D locations to not one, but two movies.  The Friday drop will be especially harsh, but Sunday will save it from dropping 50%.  True Grit, despite losing alot of theater, will hardly see a drop in the per theater average with a much better Sunday.

The top ten will be nowhere near the $183 million that last year got, but as Angela Lansbury would say, it's a step in the right direction.