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Superbowl 2011 Trailer Aftermath

This year approximately 110m viewers were in-tune to the Superbowl and thus it proved a great advertising opportunity, like always, for all companies inclusive of Hollywood studios. Warner Brothers sat out again this year opting not to showcase its March Snyder action-fantasy Sucker Punch or its summer tentpoles in Green Lantern, Hangover 2 and the final Harry Potter. Without the 2010 winner, we had five studios participate in varying degrees, one spot from 20th Century Fox and 5 from Paramount Pictures. Without further ado, here's the reaction to each 3 million dollar spot and what it means in terms of box office;

Last night's clear winner was none other than Transformers: Dark of the Moon and with a spectacular money-shot stuffed half a minute, Michael Bay proved he remains the king of explosions, battering off similar themed movies and shots soundly. With hell of a lot to prove, after not only public distaste but even Bay/LaBeouf making retrospective comments, they scored a touchdown like no other. A possible return to the first Transformers quality is on the cards and after the public admission, you'd think the director and his cast would strive to keep their word. The ad-meter gave it a 6.29 rating and placed it 34th overall and 5th out of movies advertised during the game which suggests that the Revenge of the Fallen's stigma remains not unlike the feelings that pervaded through Shrek Forever After and the Matrix Revolutions from their predecessors but this spot should have gone some way into swaying those that have abandoned ship. Once in doubt of taking the year, with Warner Brothers aforementioned Potter finale being the darkhorse, it now seems like to lose would be an upset. Whilst a record opening may still be futile even with 3D, it is very likely that Dark of the Moon will end as the high of the franchise.

In continuation of 2010s animation hotstreak, Rango appears in the near horizon and once doubted it now seems that a replication of past non-studio successes such as Happy Feet and Despicable Me is more probable than the niche flop that encompassed 9 and Legend of the Guardians. With 30 seconds of style and effective spoof humour, Rango was rated the highest with a 6.83 score and a 22nd overall ranking. For comparison Alice in Wonderland received a 6.18 score, then again, 7 of the 10 spots did this year, and a 300m+ total is impossible, but that said, Rango should now have a very healthy run given not only the complete void of family films before it, but the depressing state of the market. At least one thing is for sure, Blue Sky is going to have a hard time winning their old annual hunting grounds.

Next will surely be a controversial pick, but Universal's or rather, Relativity's Limitless comes next. In a hugely stylistic spot, the premise is established with Hangover's Bradley Cooper starring as the man of the moment and according to the ad-meter's 6.54 rating and 3rd for all movies, it worked wonderfully well. Arriving in a marketplace filled with high concept movies from the Adjustment Bureau to Sucker Punch, Relativity will hope that their nearly 6million advertising investment will pay off and the 2 pre-game spots and one game spot that flooded a third of the American population can prove to be an upper hand over similarly-themed films. As an adult thriller, it will have to rely on legs and should quality match its trailer this could be one of the surprise hits of springtime.

Swashbuckling his, and its, way into fourth is the infamous and eccentric pirate of the seas, Jack Sparrow in Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides in what will be the fourth installment of the ever-popular Pirates of the Caribbean franchise. In arguably his most iconic role, Johnny Depp once again portrays his character to a tee and the spot offers more of the same of his hijinks and the adventure that is constant in all Pirates films. Whilst watching the 1 minute spot before the 30 second spot, it seemed a little underwhelming and it was therefore surprising that Pirates pillaged a 6.66 ad-meter score, placing a strong 2nd among the ten films, however, the shorter spot was definitely effective with the right pacing and shots to make the fanbase excited. Pirates has always been popular, no matter the perceived Internet dislike of Dead Man's Chest and At World's End disappointing performance can be marked to its own self, the triple May 2007 threat and Curse of the Black Pearl still being stronger than Dead Man's Chest, though not by much. With 3D as an added incentive, it is hard to see On Stranger Tides failing to pass At World's End even though a drop in admissions remains up in the air. It is clear though that the mainstream has responded more positively to seeing Jack Sparrow's return than any other franchise and that along with the strong home video sales of the third Pirates film suggests a return to form is likely. Bruckheimer's reined in budget could be a detriment but witness to the failed spurs of G-Force, Prince of Persia and Sorcerer's Apprentice and an interesting new director in Rob Marshall could mean quality is at the forefront of all parties involved.

A franchise that is personally disliked, Fast and Furious, its latest entry-Fast Five- did nothing to win over the casual moviegoer but the spot was arguably an effective one to encourage fans to return once more. Quick cuts were not as effective as Dark of the Moon, but on the whole it was an even piece of marketing. At 9th out of 10th with a 5.99 score this Universal picture seems to have fared relatively mediocre though for what it's worth, it did outperform last year's Robin Hood, Wolfman and Disney's Prince of Persia. A total just above or below the last entry should be the most likely outcome with a drop in admissions more likely than a gain. Good news is that whilst claiming to start the summer on April 29th, the actual starter, Thor fared not much better, still the legs of this one will be short, and given how short Fast and Furious' were, it should not be much competition to the Marvel hero.

As previously mentioned, Blue Sky has their hands full trying to manage Rango's almost inevitable breakout with their own macaw-inspired Rio. Ranking fourth on the ad-meter with a 6.34 score, it did almost a half percentage point weaker than the former. Although extrapolation is lost personally, it does seem slightly significant and unlike the former's stylish and arguably new concept for animation, Rio distinguishes itself not from every other talking animal flick. There are certain positives with the incredibly colourful backgrounds and characters and the almost musical take as well as the exotic setting but gutter humour common in old Dreamworks film makes an unwelcome appearance and the uncreative use of celebrity comedy is evident in the last scene with ghetto or wannabe-gangsta birds that fashion comparisons to characters present in Madagascar, Bolt, Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs and probably a boatload of others. To be frank, that scene that tries to extricate laughs or comedy is overused, unfunny, stereotypical and generic and resorting to such attempts does not bode well for the script and quality much akin to the same ball and fart jokes that are staples in live action comedy. Without an exploitable marketing gimmick used in their previous franchise-Scrat in Ice Age- and coupled with Rango's use of an owl band, it certainly seems that Nickelodeon will nick this one. A gross resembling Blue Sky's only other non-tie-in movie Robots would be more likely than even Horton Hears A Who which of course was backed by Dr Seuss.

Superheroes have been omnipresent in the last decade for Hollywood and time again people have raised the opinion that the public were tiring of them. Although Iron Man and Nolan's Batman franchise, as well as minor-superhero and spoof successes like Hellboy, Hancock, Kick Ass, Ghost Rider and Incredible Hulk have all proved them wrong, the wheels could really be coming off this year. Out to challenge this notion then, came Thor and our first experience of what Joe Johnston's Captain America would offer. Thor has had mixed reception ever since its uber-long 5 minute trailer was leaked with fans being receptive but mainstream doubtful. A postive offered in yesterday's advert was the linear storyline that many of the flicks lacked, however that still only managed to scrounge up an 8th place finish with a score of 6.06. Chris Hemsworth has not the look of a capable leading man and the light joke afforded in the spot failed to convince otherwise. Uncharismatic in character and almost unrelatable in plot, Thor has its work cut out for it. A repeat of Robert Downey Jr carried Iron Man is unlikely and unlike Star Trek, Superman and even Transformers, his alien origin comes across tenuous and conspicuously out of place not dissimilar to Cowboys & Aliens. Having the flimsy link to Iron Man 2 and weighed down by Marvel's blind subservient support of the Avengers, Thor has a mighty lot more on his plate that could have been avoided and a run similar to Incredible Hulk is the most likely culmination of events. It will not help Marvel's cause but it is a problem that they need to correct, still the frontloadedness of Fast Five and therefore lack of competition will ensure if nothing, a decent run. It will be robbed of the first-event-film boost but an awful lot of nothing in its second weekend and the question marks surrounding both the self-proclaimed starter and the fourth entry into an 8 year old franchise could still help it out.

Unfortunately, Captain America failed to break the 2011 superhero mould and stand out as the one to rule the rest. A 6.26 score and ranking just behind Dark of the Moon can only be a positive but is neutralized by the fact it is basically the first footage that Marvel has offered us and would elicit a stronger initial response much like Super 8, which was not far behind either. It is a two-edged sword to compare its strengths, weaknesses and similarities compared to its brother in arms this summer, but it cannot be avoided. Generic sums the spot on offer well. Initial response was high but in retrospect, there is nothing to set it apart from other superheroes from the transformation-Watchmen, Incredible Hulk, Spider Man- to the snarky humour-Iron Man, Green Lantern-and stripping those away, it didn't bring a distinct action sequence to the telly that Dark of the Moon, Cowboys & Aliens, Battle: Los Angeles and even Rango did. Add in two of the previous four, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Kevin James' Zookeeper and several well-tested comedies and Captain America has it a lot tougher than Thor. Still, it is early days yet and with a concept more relatable than Thor & Green Lantern, more marketable and less farcical than Cowboys & Aliens and not as overused as X-Men: First Class, fortunes for this Chris Evans headlined movie has every opportunity to turn around, especially when the Internet-touted titans in Super 8 and Cowboys & Aliens both failed to make a decent showing. What Marvel need to do is to do all they can to differentiate it from Thor and Green Lantern because to the totally uninitiated all three of them look virtually the same and whilst it could work in a summer that it stood alone, that is not a luxury that has been afforded to it.

Rounding us off are the self-explanatory Cowboys & Aliens and JJ Abrams, Steven Spielberg-produced Super 8. Initial response was higher than the likes of On Stranger Tides and Fast Five but again, like Captain America, on retrospect, both are weak. Ranking 7th and last with scores of 6.20 and 5.97 respectively, these movies were figured to be the breakout hits that graced previous years; basically one of them, at least, was supposed to be the new Transformers, Iron Man, Star Trek or Inception. It is a new 'trend' after all. Where is the fault then? People have lavished praise on Jon Favreau's Cowboys, since its debut trailer but it is the overlooking of the title that is disadvantageous to current predictions. Whether it likes it or not, its title is ridiculous and playing it so straight, but more problematically, serious, only does itself a disservice. The spot was exciting as it featured a lot of creativity and uniqueness but the lack of a streamlined plot or hook or even a hint of one ie Inception was most probably its downfall in both ranking and impact. It is scattershot, directionless and comparisons to Jonah Hex in some scenes would do it no charm. Figuring that being personally hyped or invested and laying expectations on this to be the next quality original blockbuster was shading my view into rose-tinted bias and in reality, it still has a mountain to climb to set itself out from the pack. What it does have going for it is the fact that everything shown is only in the first half of the movie, which means its trailer and spot is more akin to Inception-esque deception than the everything-but-the-kitchen-sink approach that On Stranger Tides and Fast Five put up. The tides can still turn in its favour and optimism in its final quality is still relatively high but if it wants to succeed on the level in which we are comparing it to, it has to get cracking fast and establish a non-derisory image to match its title. Less can certainly be more, but in this case, less needs to be signifcant and solid not random and feeble.

Super 8, the other original motion picture descending into theatres this summer, has also some high expectations to live up to. A mysterious teaser debuting very early last year had set a deservedly or undeservedly titanic benchmark in Inception and to a lesser extent Cloverfield and Paranormal Activity. Viral campaigns have not had a decisively stronger success rate than normal marketing ventures so the onus was on Abrams to match the mark he probably wittingly created. This spot was weaker than all three of the barometers set out and suffered even worse plot problems than its original competitor. Like its competitor, the Internet hype on this is high and the will for it to be good has overridden the actual product. The great elements in the trailer are undoubted; a fantastic score of Williams-esque recollections and a highly refreshing 80s sci-fi blockbuster take and style highly reminiscent of Spielberg of old. However, it does not stop or rather it should not stop anything resembling a plot to step forward and provide a hook. Even worse than Cowboys, there is no set-up and just a random sequence of images that bring back memories of better trailers in the Crazies, the Happening, War of the Worlds and other disaster flicks. The problem? Whilst those trailers for those movies were great, reception to the actual movies have all been middling at best and thus Super 8 endears itself to no one who is unwittingly forced to remember the abortion that was the Happening. Just like the others though, time is still on its side and an effective trailer can go a long way. While 200million predictions are not only premature but highly unlikely, a total in the upper 100millions would be spectacular for what is essentially a low-budget tribute or celebration of the sci-fi era-defining blockbusters of yesteryear.

"So... you said I won something?"

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Total Comments: 13
BK
BK    Feb 7 2011 7:41pm
Took up 2 and a half hours. FML.
Patrick Ferrara
Patrick Ferrara    Feb 7 2011 9:11pm
Haha, at least it looks good tho. I thought the new spot for Battle: Los Angeles looked awesome, Captain America, Limitless and Cowboys and Aliens looked eh, and Fast Five actually pretty decent after so many low-ball sequels.
Crux
Crux    Feb 7 2011 9:13pm
Great article. Very good analysis.
David
David    Feb 7 2011 9:30pm
Nice article. The clear winner was Super 8, though, c'mon now. ;-)
David
David    Feb 7 2011 9:32pm
And I can't believe you're comparing Super 8 to The Crazies and The friggin' Happening. No way! The TV spot screamed classic Spielberg. E.T., Close Encounters, etc. The childhood innocence, the suggestion of supernatural mystery and wonder in a Rockwellian small town, the military/Cold War paranoia... You missed the boat there, dude. lol
BK
BK    Feb 7 2011 10:10pm
Haha I did say that though! But then the quick flashes of people's faces just made me think of some other movie which I think was one of the movies I mentioned or if it wasn't one of them a movie like it.
Karl Schneider
Karl Schneider    Feb 7 2011 10:22pm
I loved the Battle LA spots. I just thought they were PERFECT for the market they played to, and the entire room was like: "What's this?"
Patrick Ferrara
Patrick Ferrara    Feb 8 2011 12:39am
Yea totally agree KJ, it reminded me of when they first started plugging in Skyline trailers during late November football and everyone was like, "Whaaaa?" I guess I must have been too inebriated when the Super 8 spot came on, just checked it out now.

Good thing Abrams is directing it, Spielberg has been eating it recently.
Patrick Ferrara
Patrick Ferrara    Feb 8 2011 12:49am
Oh and did anyone notice like, every movie-related ad this year was sci-fi related?
Karl Schneider
Karl Schneider    Feb 8 2011 12:52am
Um, except Skyline was terrible ...
Michael A
Michael A    Feb 8 2011 3:24am
Agree that Super 8 was the most impressive but battle LA was close behind, didn't look great to me but it was an impressive ad and will work for sci-fi/action fans. Also, skyline may have been awful, but the early ads were very intriguing and impressive. People were fawning over them and making huge box office predictions all over. Battle LA definitely resembled that.
David
David    Feb 8 2011 3:48am
Skyline fucked up when the late-in-the-game TV spots revealed it was about a small bunch of CW-reject twentysomethings fighting back. They should've kept playing the "EPIC!" card.
neo_wolf
neo_wolf    Feb 9 2011 8:41pm
Super 8 had the best trailer by far, Battle los angeles was another that was good.