| Rank | Name | Prediction | Theater Count | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Roommate | 14.7m | 2534 | n/a |
| 2 | Sanctum | 9.8m | 2789 | n/a |
| 3 | No Strings Attached | 9.0m | 3050 | -33% |
| 4 | The King's Speech | 8.0m | 2584 | -28% |
| 5 | The Rite | 5.8m | 2985 | -61% |
| 6 | Green Hornet | 5.0m | 3033 | -55% |
| 7 | True Grit | 4.8m | 2902 | -36% |
| 8 | The Mechanic | 4.0m | 2704 | -65% |
| 9 | Black Swan | 3.6m | 1977 | -30% |
| 10 | Dilemma | 2.9m | 2538 | -49% |
Prediction above for span between 2/4/2011 and 2/6/2011
After a very cold January (box office wise, since it's been hot here in Southern California), the first weekend of February will only get worse. Superbowl Sunday will provide a distraction, like it always does, but it could get even worse since the two teams in the Superbowl have the strongest fanbases in the NFL (according to ESPN).
The Roommate will try to continue the success Screen Gems has with fright films aimed at women in the winter. The best comparision I can find for this movie is The Messengers, which is also a fright pic from Screen Gems that opened on Super Bowl weekend. The Leighton Meester picture should duplicate the performance of that film, even buzz and polls are so similar that it's scary. Like the last time, she should have a strong Friday and Saturday, but the big game will Steeler audience on Sunday, but hey, Sunday is always harsh for these type of movies.
Sanctum 3D is a tricky one. The only comparison I can find is Piranha 3D (also an R-rated 3D picture underwater). With poor reviews, a bad premise, it would normally have a mid 2k pta, like many other low star power adventure thriller films (Pandorum, Ruins, just to name a few). But with the 3D surcharge, it should drive the pta up by at least 50%, then again, it could be a turnoff since people don't wan't to pay to see this in the first place, let alone pay the surcharge. If that's not bad enough, then the Superbowl would had Sanc them even more (wrong tense, never mind). Without the Superbowl, it would have hit 8 digits.
Among holdovers: No Strings Attached should see declines of under 30% for Friday and Saturday, with Sunday hurting it a bit. I used the Friday increase from two weeks ago as my pattern for the King's Speech, since the theater increase is not significant this time around. Okay, so I was not Rite with my optimistic prediction last weekend, but hopefully, I should get it Rite this time. With new competition, the Friday and Saturday declines shouldn't look too bad, but Sunday will destroy this picture, leading to a 60% drop. Green Hornet loses IMAX screens, along with the Cheeseheads to add insult to injury. I predict a 40% drop in the pta for Friday, which will lead to a decline a little under a half for Friday and Saturday. With week to week gross dropping 30%, expect True Grit to follow that pattern for Friday and Saturday. Ditto for Black Swan with it's pattern. The Mechanic will follow the footsteps of Faster and Crank 2 with a Friday decline of 62%, with a bigger Saturday increase, but Sunday will make it blow up even more than the other two films mentioned. Dilemma will see moderate Friday and Saturday declines again, but Sunday, well, you get the idea by now.
This is the Scottie signing out (now let's order a pizza).
