Ted
The Tracking/Stats
· MTC: $32 million RS: high 20s
· It entered #4 on the “Fandango 5” resembling 4% of the sales as of 3:30PM Tuesday.
· Recently, it improved to 11% and jumped up a spot.
· 67% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes.
· LA Times reported the budget at $50 million.
· Through the week, it earned 37,000+ tweets, more than most comedies this year
The Facts:
- Family Guy does very well in DVD Sales even though the ratings have declined the past few years. However, it continues to show popularity on Adult Swim pulling in more viewers than the majority of NBC shows. I recognize that Mike Judge’s “Office Space” flopped in 1999 despite the acclaim critics gave and from the creator of two popular animated shows, “Beavis and Butthead” and “King of the Hill”.
- Every single comedy for the past 3 months failed to appeal audiences especially males.
o For instance, American Reunion did not do as well as its predecessors even with the nearly all the cast from the first three movies in it.
o The Dictator, a Sacha Baron Cohen movie from Borat and Bruno, has yet to gross better than Bruno despite the first comedy in the marketplace since Reunion disappointed.
o That’s My Boy, Adam Sandler’s first R-rated comedy in 15 years had the advantage of releasing to Father’s Day but had its worst opening adjusted since he started movies.
- Wahlberg’s last two films, Contraband and The Fighter became hits after mild successes and disappointments for 2 years (Shooter, We Own the Night, Max Payne, The Lovely Bones).
- Former That 70s Show, Mila Kunis did decently with Friends with Benefits last year and Black Swan the year before. Also, both her and Wahlberg have done an incredible job going on talk shows, especially guest starring on the popular Jimmy Kimmel Live! Game Night.
The Verdict:
All the comedies after 21 Jump Street in the past 3 months have failed to break out this summer. At this time last year, Bridesmaids and Bad Teacher exceeded expectations. Most comedies like this rarely show up early in the Fandango 5. Usually, they don’t even do it until the last minute, let alone 3 days before its release. With earning higher ratings on Flixster, tracking more tweets on Twitter than the most of the comedies this year. Although having the exact MTC and RS number as “21,” it will open with slightly below due to more competition with Magic Mike. Nevertheless, Wahlberg should see his first $100 million + hit starring in a lead role ever with a premiere opening with around $36 million.
Magic Mike
The Tracking/Stats:
- MTC: $19 million RS: mid-teens.
- It debuted #2 on the “Fandango 5” on Monday, then improved to #1 Tuesday (36% of sales)
- It currently ranks #1 on the “Fandango 5” resembling 61% of the sales.
- 82% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes.
- LA Times reported the budget at $7 million.
- Through the week, it received 84,000+ tweets, way more than 21 Jump Street’s pace.
The Facts:
- Snow White and the Huntsman resembles the only female-oriented film in the marketplace and the smaller than normal drops along with Hunger Games have shown that females have lack of choices in terms of buying movie tickets this year.
- I realize that Steven Soderbergh films usually have dark tones that may not have legs like a 3.5+ multiplier but at the same time, not a single film has shown sleeper status this summer. At this time last year, Bridesmaids and Midnight in Paris resembled the sleepers.
- In May, “What to Expect when you’re expecting” provided an all-star cast but failed to bring in females with just $39m domestically.
- One week after “The Lucky One” ($22.5m), The Five-Year Engagement advertised heavily on the producer who made Bridesmaids only made 18% of Bridesmaids’ $169.7m total.
- “Rock of Ages”, another musical that normally gets females failed to lure them into seeing it barely made half as much as “Hairspray” and “Mamma Mia!”, in terms of opening weekend.
- Tatum’s past two films have surprised this year. “The Vow” faced the same situation as this when Heigl (Knocked Up, 27 Dresses)’s One for the Money and Warner Bros’ all-star cast New Year’s Eve, ironically another film she starred in flopped tremendously. It debuted to $40 million plus because of the lack of female movies in the marketplace, the excellent marketing, and releasing close to Valentine’s Day. Tatum’s other film that the MPAA gave an R-rating to, “21 Jump Street” premiered to more than $35 million due to better than expected reviews. Despite that it came from a popular TV show starring Depp in the 80s, it earned better legs than expected.
The Verdict:
With many female-oriented films failing to meet expectations in the past two months, I don’t see how this opens less than “The Lucky One” another film that Warner Bros produced that generated enormous tweets earlier this year and one of the only female-oriented films before Snow White and after The Hunger Games that actually did better than expected. “Bridesmaids” has shown that MTC and RS tracking numbers always do not show accuracy. It only tracked at $11 million last year but ended up opening with $26.3 million. Although Ted has also built positive buzz, an opening day in the $14-16M range can happen due to more buzz. It will take the top spot Friday but will fight for second place with Ted. Establishing the tracking/reviews and facts, it will premiere with $36 million.
Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection
The Tracking/Reviews
- MTC: $28 million RS: low 30s
- According to Boxoffice.com, It ranks #4 in the “Fandango 5”, resembling 6% of the sales. By comparison, Madea’s Big Happy Family nearly stayed on the same pace as Protection.
- Perry’s films usually don’t post reviews until the day of the releases
- No official budget, but based on the last Madea film, LA times reported it at $25 million
- Through the week, it produced 5,600+ tweets, more than Family & Good Deeds.
The Facts:
- Urban films have consistently done better than the high-end of expectations such as Safe House ($40.2m/$126.2m), Think like a Man ($33.6m/$91m).
- Although Madea films have done very well in the past, Big Happy Family ($25.1m/$53.3m) opened 83% of the films despite tracking MTC: 32 RS: low 30s.
- This past year’s Good Deeds ($15.6m/$35m) opened 80% of Colored Girls & 76% of the average non-Madea film. However, almost every Perry movie has consistently opened over $20m.
- For the first time, Perry makes a film that never involved his plays but the lack of urban films could prevent it from under-performing like Deeds from February.
The Verdict:
Not since Think like a Man has an urban film premiered in theaters. The excellent opening for it and the lack of excitement of some films show that the demand improved for urban films. However, Protection faces more competition than Family. The shortage of urban films will prevent it from opening below $20 million+. Given the tracking/reviews and facts present, I see this starting with just above $22 million.
People Like Us
The Tracking/Reviews
- MTC: $5 million RS: high single digits.
- The only new release failing to enter the Fandango 5.
- 57% Rotten on Rotten Tomatoes.
- Box Office Mojo reported the budget at $16 million.
- Through the week, it collected under 1,300 tweets, less than most films this year.
The Facts
- Although the advertisers emphasizes, “From the studio that brought you The Help”, it has failed to gain any traction. I realize that adult films don’t trend well on Twitter but to have a film bringing in one of the lowest tweets of the year shows ominous signs.
- Despite Chris Pine’s hits with Star Trek, Unstoppable and This Means War in the past few years, he has yet to prove that he can pull a movie on his own as a lead role. For instance, Carriers flopped considering that the studio advertised “From the star of the hit of Star Trek"
- Even though Michelle Pfeiffer has shown popularity, she fails to attract audiences to rely on her to do well in every movie because she has not brought in a hit as a leading role in the last 10 years such as New Year’s Eve, Stardust, and White Oleander.
- Despite buzz about Elizabeth Banks as the next breakout star with “The 40-Year-Old Virgin” and Invincible, Role Models resembles her only non-Hunger Games hit in the last five years. “Man on a Ledge” and “What to Expect When You’re Expecting” have resembled not only the two of the worst reviews and flops/disappointments of the year but has also decreased her star-power.
- Theater owners concentrate more on the top 5 films while they will dump in on only one screen. For the bulk of theaters to put this on one screen does not bode well for its chances to succeed.
The Verdict:
The lack of buzz, worse than expected reviews, the low number of tweets even for this kind of film shows worrying signs. Based on the tracking/reviews and facts, it will muster $5 million.
