I'm back guys. I have returned to writing articles on my weekly box office predictions with complicated information, and cringe inducing puns. This weekend, Anthony Hopkins tries to get it "Rite," while Jason Statham transports as a "Mechanic." In addition, the Oscar Hopeful films hope to cash in on their nominations.
The "Rite" has many things going for it. It's the first Fright pic of the year, and it has been long since we had one. The Religious theme is alway a plus for this genre. Although interest polls are not as high as comparable films, as "Last Exorcism" or "Legion," but the trailers have been effective. The snow in the East could hurt a bit too. It won't hit the 7k per theater average as the two films mentioned. Instead, it should have a pta in the mid $6k range. Playing in 2985 theaters, $19.1 million sounds about rite.
The "Mechanic" doesn't seem to be any different from "Faster" nor "Crank 2," in terms of BOM polls, nor buzz. Those two films got per theater averages in the low $3k range, expect the same for this. $9.4 million from 2703 theaters should do it.
Among Oscar hopefuls, "The King's Speech" should benefit the most from it's Oscar nominations, as evidence by it's 66% increase on Tuesday. It has 12 nominations, and the theater counts increases to 2553. Like most Best Picture nods in the past, the per theater average tends to slightly increase regardless of theater count. In this case, I see a pta of about $5k, which means that Colin Firth should stutter his way to $12.8 million this weekend, giving it a 63% increase. "Black Swan" will not see the same bump, except on Natalie Portman's belly, as the theater count slightly decreased. I see "Juno" as a comparison for this (a slight increase in it's pta leading to a slight decrease in overall gross). It should dance to the tune of $5.8 million, for a scant 1% decrease. "True Grit" should see a slight decrease in the pta, as the film is already a blockbuster. Although the Sunday to Sunday drop will be slight with no real football games to compete with, which should lead to a 14% drop for the weekend ($6.3 million weekend). The "Fighter's" Friday and Saturday drops should be in the teens, with the Sunday gross increasing by a good margin. Overall, it too will see a slight increase in pta, giving it a $3.8 million gross (-9%).
Among other holdovers, "No Strings Attached" has goodish word of mouth. Similar January films, like "Bride Wars," "27 Dresses," and "When in Rome" all have Friday increases in the 190% range, with the Saturday increase in the mid 20% range. No String follow suit, giving it a gross of $11.1 million (down 44%). "Green Hornet" shouldn't get slashed too much by Jason, but the snow will. But with the football distractions gone, it should still decline at the normal rate ($9.8 million, down 45%). Vince's comedy should go into another "Dilemma" with another mid 40% drop ($5.1 million predicition from me). And finally, the theater loss is too much for the "Little Fockers" to withstand. Still(er), it should get a 30% drop in the pta (keeping it barely over $1k), giving it $2.1 million. This is Scottie, signing out.
