Dear readers,
In the "Oscars 2011: Spotlight on…” series, I will highlight the state of the race in each of the eight major categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay.
Welcome to the final issue of the “Oscars 2011: Spotlight on…” series as we finally arrive at the Big Prize – the Academy Award for Best Picture. It is a far trickier category to discuss than the seven that I delved into before. The reason for that is primarily the recent rule change as far as balloting the Best Picture nominees goes. For the first time the exact number of Best Picture nominees will not be known before the announcement of the nominees. We just know that it will vary between five and ten. Movies will only be considered for a nomination if they achieve at least 5% of top spot votes among all the ballots. This is where passionate support for certain movies will count a lot.
Locks:
The Artist – The Artist is this year’s first and foremost lock for a Best Picture nomination. At first it seemed like it had a lot going against it – it is a French black and white silent movie! But now these qualities pretty much turned into its advantages. It’s a nostalgic movie about a long-gone time in Hollywood and if there is something the Academy loves than it is movies about Hollywood’s glorious past. Despite being silent and black and white it resonates very well with the audiences and has far more mass appeal than anyone could have expected. It is being carried by two performances that will most likely be nominated for Oscars too and its director will certainly get in as well. Add to that three Screen Actors Guild nominations (including the all-important nod for Best Ensemble), 11 BFCA nominations, six Golden Globes nods and a Producers Guild Association nomination. On top of that the movie managed to get mentioned by almost all critics’ circles. While it didn’t sweep the critics’ awards like The Social Network last year, it still won Best Picture in New York, Boston, Washington D.C., Las Vegas, San Diego and many others. The movie’s nomination is a given and a Best Picture win is currently likely as well.
Hugo – Unlike The Artist which was expected to be a major player for quit some time now (after it managed to stun in Cannes), Hugo turned out to be a bit of a surprise. Similar to The Artist, Martin Scorsese also delivered a letter of appreciation to the early days of cinema here, while wrapping it in a 3D family adventure flick. The trailers didn’t promise anything particularly impressive, but then the movie hit the screens to glowing reviews and went on to win Best Picture and Best Director from the National Board of Review. This recognition instantly made it a strong player in the race, a monumentum that it managed to keep since then. It didn’t win any major awards for the film itself, since then, but scored nominations pretty much everywhere. Scorsese, on the other hand, could collect a few more awards. In addition to that, the movie has received a PGA nod, three Golden Globe nods from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and an impressive 11 BFCA nominations. The Screen Actors Guild didn’t give the movie any recognition that but wasn’t to be expected as the movie’s main strengths lie in its technical virtues and its directing. In fact due to its technical prowess Hugo could end up as the movie with the most Academy Awards nominations this year. Not even the slightly disappointing box-office will prevent it from being a surefire Best Picture nominee.
The Descendants – Alexander Payne’s Sideways follow-up, The Descendants, was expected to become a contender long before its release. It didn’t disappoint. Starting out with strong reviews, encouraging box-office numbers and three major wins from the National Board of Review (Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay) it remained a strong player during the entire awards season. It won Best Picture in Los Angeles and scored five important Golden Globe nominations (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress and Screenplay), seven BFCA nominations, an expected PGA nod and two SAG nominations, including a nod for its Ensemble which is one of the strongest indicators for a Best Picture nod that there are. While it seems to be playing second fiddle to The Artist in the Best Picture race, I wouldn’t rule it out just yet if the Screenplay and Clooney end up as the winners. Payne is definitely someone that the Academy appreciates and one day he’ll end up with a Best Picture winner. In any case, this movie is in.
Midnight in Paris – It might sound like a daring call to name Woody Allen’s newest film a lock for a Best Picture nomination. Afterall none of Allen’s films have been nominated for Best Picture ever since Hannah and Her Sisters 25 years ago. It’s really remarkable that even though Allen has been nominated for his directing six times, only two of the films he was nominated for as Best Director also received a Best Picture nod (Annie Hall and Hannah and Her Sisters). This could have possibly happened this year as well if we had only five nominees, but we don’t and I really don’t see the film missing a nod. To draw a comparison to Hannah and Her Sisters again – Midnight in Paris became Woody Allen’s biggest film to date (unadjusted for inflation) in North America, topping Hannah and Her Sisters which used to be Allen’s biggest grosser until then. Not just that, but it displayed tremendous legs and is still playing in some theatres despite its May (!) release date. In addition to very good reviews and terrific word-of-mouth, the movie fared well with the critics’ awards, netting several wins for Allen’s screenplay. More importantly, though, it was nominated for four Golden Globes (including Best Picture Comedy/Musical), the PGA award for Best Picture of the Year and three BFCA awards (including Best Picture). Furthermore it made American Film Institute’s Top 10 of the year. What really stands out and leads me to believe that it is a shoe-in for a Best Picture nomination, however, is its apparent support from the actors’ branch – the movie has received a Best Ensemble nod from the Screen Actors Guild. Usually it is a great predictor of Best Picture nominees and combined with all the other precursors it should make Midnight in Paris a solid lock.
Strong contenders:
Moneyball – The only thing that keeps me from putting it in the upper category is the complete lack of any attention for its director – Bennett Miller who has yet to appear on any list. Other than that, the movie’s enjoying solid support all around. Having scored BP nods from the HFPA, BFCA and PGA, it also scored two Screen Actors Guild nods (though not for its ensemble) and was placed among AFI’s yearly Top 10. Having a screenplay and an actor that are among the frontrunners in their respective categories can’t hurt either, not to forget the fairly solid box-office run. A snub would be shocking, but I am still not willing to call the film a lock.
War Horse – War Horse is a movie that is rising the ranks fairly quickly. It didn’t seem strong at first as it failed to make any appearances on most critics’ awards lists, but mentions by the National Board of Review and the American Film Institute kept it in the race. Then the Globes came along and while it received only one single nod, it was still for Best Picture (Drama). Then again, it was a category with six nominees this year and many saw War Horse’s nomination as a pity mention. It showed more strength with the Broadcast Film Critics which gave the film eight nominations, including those for Best Picture and Best Director. The tide turned even more in the film’s favor when it started strongly out of the gate at the box-office. Despite its long running time and a cast of rather less-known actors it collected over $45 million after just ten days in release. When the PGA nominations came in and it was on the list its position has become even stronger. It could still miss out if it fails to garner enough passionate support, but its sentimental, crowd-pleasing angle should take care of that.
The Help – As one of the year’s biggest breakout hits, The Help became one of the year’s first movies that were considered to be very likely Best Picture nominees. I’d say that the film’s monumentum is slightly waning now as its strength seems to lie in the support for its cast and less in that for its screenplay or direction. Then again, nine BFCA nods, five Golden Globes nominations, a PGA nom and four SAG nominations speak for themselves. Out of this group, it is the closest to being a lock, but not just there yet.
Also in the running:
The Tree of Life – This is the one film where one can possibly see the large disparity between the critics and the Academy members. Terrence Malick’s Palme d’Or winner has fared incredibly well with the critics circles. It won Best Picture in Chicago, Toronto and San Francisco and came in second in Los Angeles. The AFI and the NBR placed it among their Top 10 movies of 2011 and BFCA gave it a Best Picture nomination among five nods in total. On the other hand the Screen Actors Guild and the Producers Guild Association shut out the movie completely as did the Hollywood Foreign Press. It is a very polarizing movie, but it does have passionate support. One must also keep in mind that Malick is a previous nominee and he has directed a Best Picture nominee before. The Tree of Life is definitely strong in the technical categories – but will the support be enough to push it to a Best Picture nod? Time will tell.
Drive – Here’s another movie adored by critics, but mostly neglected elsewhere. The Golden Globes almost completely shunned the film (only giving a nod to Brooks) and the major guilds (SAG, PGA) ignored it as well. It did solid numbers in its box-office run and seems to be generally well-received by casual audiences as well, but it somehow doesn’t really click with the industry. It’s not out yet, but its chances keep getting worse. Not many movies will be nominated for Best Picture that didn’t get on PGA nominees’ list and The Tree of Life is looking more likely to do it than Drive.
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – This is only here because it is a 9/11 drama directed by Stephen Daldry. With its mixed reviews and what doesn’t look to be terrific box-office, it certainly doesn’t look like a contender. The only major thing it managed to score is a Best Picture nod from the BFCA. Other than that, it didn’t even figure at the SAG awards or the PGA awards. I don’t believe it’ll make it, but it’d be a mistake to ignore Daldry’s track record.
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – David Fincher’s take on Stieg Larsson’s bestselling novel looked like more of a contender a few months ago. Now it still has a chance (it got a PGA nod along with an AFI mention), but missing a Picture nomination at the Globes and at the BFCA awards is not helping its case. On top of that the film didn’t set the box-office on fire as some might have expected it too. It might just be a tad too dark and nasty for the Academy to overcome the obstacle of not being pure brilliance to most who have seen it.
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – That is another contender that seemed much more likely a while back. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy failed to appear even once on the BFCA, the SAG, the PGA or the Golden Globes nominees’ lists, also missing out on major support by the critics groups. Given the film’s solid critical reception and its decent box-office performance thus far, it is really surprising. I am not willing to write it off completely yet as the years have shown that the support by the British matters along within the Academy and this would be the top contender for them to push this year. However the signs have been really bleak so far.
The Ides of March – George Clooney’s most recent directorial work, on the other hand, is a movie that I certainly didn’t expect to appear here a while back. It opened to solid, but not overwhelming reviews and did just decent numbers. However, four major Golden Globes noms (Picture, Director, Actor and Screenplay) put it back in the race and a PGA nomination confirmed that. I still have a hard time grasping this comeback, but it can’t be denied that the film enjoys some level of support.
Bridesmaids – Could it really happen? I don’t think so, but if it did, it shouldn’t come as a total surprise. It made AFI’s Top 10 list, PGA’s list of ten Best Picture nominees and the SAG list of Best Ensemble nominees. With possible nominations for its supporting actress and its screenplay the movie might be stronger than it seems.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2– It looked like a distant possibility back in the summer. It is a huge performer (highest-grossing movie of 2011), it garnered amazing reviews and it’s the final film in a franchise that got better and better as years went on. It seemed like the Academy just might want to honor that. But as it now failed to register at the PGA awards (which were its best bet for a major nomination), its chances seem almost dead.
My prediction:
The Artist
Hugo
The Descendants
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse
The Help
The Tree of Life
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Now that the series is finished I want to thank those who have followed it for their attention. I’ll be back with another analysis of the race after the announcement of the actual Academy Awards nominees.
Other articles in the series:
