Dear readers,
In the "Oscars 2011: Spotlight on…” series, I will highlight the state of the race in each of the eight major categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay.
Now that we get to the final two categories, we enter a field in which three spots seem to be set in stone with another very likely candidate to follow. The final spot is extremely wide open with no distinct favorite to take it. The Best Director race shapes up to be a close one between the relative newcomer Hazanavicius and veteran Scorsese.
Locks:
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)– Hazanavicius might not be a big name and he has just appeared on the horizon to most audiences outside of France (where he did direct two successful comedies – OSS 117: Cairo, Nest of Spies and its sequel – both starred Dujardin and Bejo, the director’s partner), but his movie is the current frontrunner to win Best Picture which handily makes Hazanavicius a shoe-in for a Best Director nod. To make a silent black-and-white movie in our day and age and still manage to make it appealing to mass audiences is no small feat and Hazanavicius deserves credit for that which he will get from the Academy.
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)– It has been a long way for Martin Scorsese, a filmmaking legend, to his Academy Award win for The Departed. By that time, Scorsese has been nominated six times as Best Director and two more times for his writing. He has directed some of the most legendary classics of modern American cinema and was insanely overdue by the time The Departed hit the screens. The Departed not only brought him the well-deserved award, but also helped to finally make his name a solid box-office magnet as it became Scorsese’s biggest film to date. Scorsese’s follow-up to The Departed, 2010’s Shutter Island, didn’t get any Academy love, but became a formidable box-office success. Scorsese is bigger than he has ever been with three out of his four most recent fiction movies having been nominated for Best Picture and Best Director at the Oscars. When he announced he’d direct a 3D family-oriented movie the reactions were rather mixed. While some were curious to see Scorsese’s first foray into that territory, most didn’t expect it to become what it did become in the end – an acclaimed love letter to early cinema. By now the movie has fared extremely well with the precursors. It won the National Board of Review awards for Picture and Director and collected Best Director awards in Boston and Washington D.C., while getting placed second in New York. It did disappoint at the box-office, but it will still be a big player at the Oscars as it will be huge in the technical categories. Scorsese also stands a great chance at winning his second Best Director Oscar for this. A nomination is a given.
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)– Payne is a previous nominee and winner (Best Adapted Screenplay for Sideways). The Descendants might not have the same degree of critical acclaim as Sideways, but it is still a very strong horse in the race this year. It helps that the movie stars one of the biggest and most respected actors in Hollywood. So far Payne wasn’t able to score any important wins for his directing among the precursors (though he did collect a fair share of awards for his screenplay), but with Golden Globe and BFCA nominations he still has a very strong standing.
Strong contenders:
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)– Like Payne, Allen hasn’t won many accolades for his directing of Midnight in Paris, though he did win a few awards for his screenplay. Nevertheless, I consider him to be in a strong position for an Oscar nomination. First of all, Midnight in Paris was an astounding success story for Allen, becoming one of the biggest word-of-mouth hits of 2011 and easily Allen’s biggest box-office success. Similar to Scorsese, Allen in a legendary filmmaker who has received a lot of appreciation from the Academy. His 6th and most recent Best Director nomination is a long time ago, though. It was for Bullets over Broadway in 1994. Midnight in Paris seems like the best opportunity in a very long time for Allen to finally get another Best Director nod and it’s not clear whether there will be another such opportunity for the aging director. I think the Academy members will honor his with another Best Director nod. Allen did miss a Best Director mention at the BFCA awards, but he was nominated at the Golden Globes as well as in Washington D.C. and San Diego. His nod is not certain yet, but he has got a whole lot going for him and not much against him unlike the others competing for the final two spots in this category.
Also in the running:
Bennett Miller (Moneyball)– Well, it’s true that Bennett Miller hasn’t appeared anywhere in the race yet. Nevertheless, his movie is too strong of a player for his name to be ignored, in particular since he is a previous nominee (Capote) as well. Moneyball will get Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture nods and might very well win two of these. For a movie this strong awards-wise, you should never underestimate its director.
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)– This is a case of “will the Academy go for this movie or not?” It’s not a stretch to say that The Tree of Life is one of the critically most-appreciated, but also most controversially discussed movies of 2011. Many embraced Malick’s work for which he won Best Director awards in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago and Toronto among others. On the other hand Malick failed to register with the HFPA and the BFCA (though his film was nominated at the latter). Malick has previously been nominated for The Thin Red Line, but that was a far more conventional film than THE Tree of Life. Then again if David Lynch was able to score a nod for Mulholland Drive, then maybe so might Malick for what will likely always be remembered as his career’s most personal and defining film.
Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive)– The Best Director winner of Cannes has quite a few obstacles to overcome in order to get nominated for his work on Dirve. While the critics agree that the film’s direction is impeccable, the Academy members might have a hard time seeing through the film’s outbursts of extreme violence to recognize Refn’s work. He did well with the precursors, having been nominated by the Broadcast Film Critics Association and having won Best Director honors in Las Vegas and San Diego. However, the film on the whole doesn’t appear very strong as it failed to score a single nod from the Screen Actors Guild and was only nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the Golden Globes.
Steven Spielberg (War Horse)– It does look like a battle of the veterans this year. With Allen and Scorsese in the race, Spielberg also makes his bid for a Best Director nod with his sentimental war drama War Horse. The movie opened to solid reviews and relatively impressive box-office so far. Spielberg himself didn’t appear on many critics’ awards lists so far, but he did score a BFCA nod and War Horse was nominated for Best Picture (Drama) at the Golden Globes. As the buzz for the film keeps building and it looks to strike a chord with the audiences, it is becoming more and more possible that Spielberg will get in. Like in Allen’s and in Scorsese’s case it’d also be his 7th Best Director nomination. Remember, Munich also didn’t score all too well with the precursors and was yet nominated for Best Picture and Best Director at the Oscars. War Horse might not have the relevance of Munich, but it appeals to much broader audiences and will certainly end up as a bigger financial success.
David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)– When the project has been announced, Fincher was just coming off the huge amount of acclaim he has received for The Social Network. Most considered it a near-lock for Fincher to be nominated again. The word on is take on Stieg Larsson’s bestseller is more mixed than expected, though and a nomination is no longer guaranteed. The precursors mostly ignored the film so far. However, like in War Horse’s case, its buzz is just building now and Fincher is a respected and quite overdue filmmaker, so I’d still keep an eye on this film.
Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)– Daldry is on here for one simple reason only – because it’s Stephen Daldry, a director with a perfect track record. He has directed only three movies to date for each of which he was nominated as Best Director (Billy Elliot, The Hours and The Reader). It’s not something many filmmakers can claim. In particular his nod for The Reader came as a big surprise. Now it still remains extremely unlikely that he’ll score a nomination for his 9/11 drama which opened to mediocre reviews and less-than-stellar box-office. Moreover, it failed to score any recognition at the Golden Globes. Daldry and his film did, however, receive nominations from the Broadcast Film Critics Association. It remains the only notable precursor that Daldry can claim to date, though. It is very likely that his perfect track record will be broken, but as I said, never count him out!
My prediction:
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
Steven Spielberg (War Horse)
Check back soon for the final article in the series, analyzing how many and which movies will make it into the less predictable Best Picture category.
Other articles in the series:
