Dear readers,
In the "Oscars 2011: Spotlight on…” series, I will highlight the state of the race in each of the eight major categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay.
Unlike the supporting categories, the Best Actor category is quite narrowed down by now, similar to the Best Actress category. We’ve got three rock solid locks who all have a shot at a win too and two strong contenders that will most likely get in as well. However, as the Screen Actors Guild nominations have shown, the industry is always full of surprises. Just remember when Clint Eastwood was nominated for Million Dollar Baby despite missing all precursors and replaced Paul Giamatti who has scored BFCA, SAG and Golden Globe nods for his turn in Sideways. If the Academy Awards are known for something, then it’s left-field surprises.
Locks:
George Clooney (The Descendants) – Clooney is in, as simple as that. Hollywood loves him as does the Academy. He is a previous winner and has been nominated five times in total (including Best Original Screenplay and Best Director nominations). He has also had a strong year, having directed the successful The Ides of March which surprisingly scored four major Golden Globe nods from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and starred in one of this year’s Best Picture frontrunners – The Descendants. Many reviewers called Clooney’s turn in that film a career-best and he has already won awards from the Southeastern Film Critics Association, the Washington D.C. critics and the National Board of review among many others. It is a meaty role in a movie that is a major awards contender itself. The question is not whether he’ll be nominated, but whether he’ll take his second statue home next year.
Brad Pitt (Moneyball) – Much like Clooney, Brad Pitt has been a shoe-in for a nomination ever since Moneyball hit the theatres. Pitt is a very respected actor, but it took over ten years for him to score a follow-up Oscar nomination to Twelve Monkey which he finally received for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. His turn as Billy Beane in Moneyball has been wel-received by audiences and critics alike. In addition to Golden Globe/BFCA/SAG nomination, Pitt also managed to collect several critics’ awards including the top honors from the New York Film Critics Circle and the Boston Film Critics Society. Currently he’s the fiercest competitor to George Clooney for the win in this category.
Jean Dujardin (The Artist) – Dujardin’s nomination is another lock in this category. Being in the movie that is the frontrunner for a Best Picture win always helps and considering it’s a black and white silent movie it puts even more pressure on the actors to make it work. Dujardin has won the award for Best Actor in Cannes and he is definitely a major part of the reason why this movie works so well. Also nominated at the BFCA awards, the SAG awards and the Golden Globes there is no doubt that he’ll be given a nod at the Oscars as well. In fact if the love for the film is overwhelming enough he could pose a serious threat to Clooney and Pitt. That could lead to a situation similar to 2002 when Adrien Brody (The Pianist) snatched the Best Actor award away from Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt) and Daniel Day Lewis (Gangs of New York). Dujardin is the dark horse in this race.
Strong contenders:
Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar) – A while back, DiCaprio’s nomination for his portrayal of J. Edgar Hoover seemed like a no-brainer. Just look at the facts: it’s one of his generation’s finest thespians portraying a well-known and controversial historical figure in a movie directed by none other than Clint Eastwood. However when the film came out to tepid reviews and rather slow box-office the tide has turned and many started to write off J. Edgar as a major contender. But somehow the movie persisted. Despite its lukewarm reception it made it among American Film Institute’s Top 10 movies of 2011 and it also made it onto National Board of Review’s Top 10 list. Even though it was still clear that the film itself wouldn’t be a big awards player, it kept DiCaprio’s performance in the race. Many compare it to Cate Blanchett’s turn in Elizabeth: The Golden Age. That film wasn’t well-received either and disappointed at the box-office big time, yet Blanchett received what many considered an obligatory nomination. DiCaprio hasn’t won anything significant for this role, but he did receive the nomination trifecta, scoring at the Golden Globes, the BFCA and the Screen Actors Guild. The film’s overall disappointment keeps me from calling him a solid lock, but his chances are better than just good.
Michael Fassbender (Shame) – For a few actors and actresses 2011 was by far the best and most defining year of their careers. Jessica Chastain whom I mentioned in my Best Supporting Actress preview is such an example. Among the actors, the honor is split between Ryan Gosling and Michael Fassbender. Whereas Gosling has already had some good years already (having also been nominated for Best Actor in Half-Nelson among other things), it’s Fassbender who truly broke out. He made a solid impression in Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds and collected a lot of accolades for his previous Steve McQueen collaboration, Hunger. But this year was his year. He ended up being the most impressive part of X-Men: First Class with most reviewers singling him out. On top of that he was in Jane Eyre and played C. G. Jung in Cronenberg’s A Dangerous Method. But it’s his turn in the highly controversial NC-17 rated film Shame (another film directed by Steve McQueen) that earned him the biggest amount of praise. It’s true that Fassbender missed out on a nomination at the Screen Actors Guild, but then again he was replaced by an actor who is unlikely to play a role in the race. I don’t expect SAG to match 5/5 with the Academy Awards in this category and Bichir is the most likely one to miss out. Fassbender is the most likely one to replace him as he has also scored Golden Globe and BFCA nominations along with wins from the Los Angeles and Detroit film critics. It just seems unlikely that the Academy won’t honor Fassbender after such an impressive year, especially considering how brave his performance and how meaty his role is in Shame. The only obstacle might still be the NC-17 badge which the movie proudly wears. That might turn off potential voters from even seeing the film (and thus Fassbender’s performance) in the first place.
Also in the running:
Ryan Gosling (Drive or The Ides of March) – Like Michael Fassbender Ryan Gosling also had a great year with starring roles in well-received films Crazy Stupid Love, The Ides of March and Drive. Gosling actually got two Golden Globe nominations in the category Best Actor (Comedy/Musical and Drama respectively) for the former two. However, it’s Drive that is considered his best work this year. Nevertheless, Gosling failed to score with the precursors for that role. The Screen Actors Guild ignored all of his performances, whereas the HFPA nominated him twice, but not for Drive. His appearances on critics’ awards lists have also been sporadic at best with the biggest honor being a BFCA nomination for Drive. Nevertheless it has been too strong of a year for him not to be mentioned here. It is an uphill battle, though. The Academy snubbed him before when it looked like he would score a nod for Lars and the Real Girl (and the precursors were much stronger back then).
Michael Shannon (Take Shelter) – Take Shelter is a small film that did make an impact. Despite its miniscule box-office the movie hasn’t been forgotten, in particular not Michael Shannon’s performance. It’s true that he didn’t score a SAG nomination or a Golden Globe nod. The Broadcast Film Critics Association ignored him as well. He did gather awards in San Diego, Chicago and Toronto, though, also placing second in Los Angeles. If a surprise nomination happens for a tiny movie in this category, it’ll be Shannon for Take Shelter.
Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy) – Not too long ago Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy was expected to be a big player in this year’s awards and Oldman a likely nominee. It’s frankly shocking that despite such a successful career Gary Oldman has never even been nominated for an Oscar. Then, inexplicably, the movie just failed to catch fire with the awards. It’s not like the reviews weren’t good. The film ended up being very well-received and yet, scored absolutely no nominations at the BFCA, the SAG and the HFPA. The biggest success Oldman can claim to date is a Best Actor win in San Francisco. The tide may turn, but it seems rather unlikely now.
Damián Bichir (A Better Life) – The only reason Bichir is on this list is because of his entirely random (even if well-deserved) nomination at the Screen Actors Guild awards. The only list he has appeared on before with this performance was the list of the Independent Spirit Awards. The SAG nomination is a great honor, but I don’t believe that this tiny movie (it didn’t even make $2 million stateside) will figure in the race in any way.
My prediction:
George Clooney (The Descendants)
Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
Michael Fassbender (Shame)
Stay tuned for my take on the Best Director category coming up next.
Check out the other entries in the series:
