Dear readers,
In the "Oscars 2011: Spotlight on…" series, I will highlight the state of the race in each of the eight major categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay.
Of all the eight major categories, the Best Supporting Actor category is the one with the smallest number of shoe-in nominees this year. It’s really interesting, especially considering that in the last four years the winner in this category was usually known well beforehand as he has sweeped through the entire season (Javier Bardem, Heath Ledger, Christoph Waltz and Christian Bale). It’s different this time around. Albert Brooks is a real hit with the critics’ awards, but having missed a crucial Screen Actors Guild nomination, the tide clearly turned in favor of Plummer. Still, there is a lot of uncertainty hovering over this particular category.
Locks:
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)– Ever since Beginners has been released last June, Plummer has been the main talk of the movie. It’s a great role for a veteran actor and you don’t often see an 81-year old actor playing an openly gay character (with a far younger on-screen lover, no less). It’s a showy, lively and brave role. Frankly it is shocking that Plummer hasn’t even been nominated for an Academy Award up until 2009 when he got a nod in the Best Supporting Actor category for his portrayal of Tolstoy in The Last Station. Back then, he was steamrolled under the Christoph Waltz/Inglourious Basterds train. Now he is the only rock solid lock in the Best Supporting Actor category this year, having scored nominations at the Globes, the BFCA and the Screen Actors Guild, alongside of winning several critics’ awards like in Los Angeles, Toronto. He was also National Board of Review’s top choice this year. A nomination will happen without any shadow of a doubt and there seems to be little in his way to a win, though that is not set in stone yet.
Strong contenders:
Albert Brooks (Drive)– Up until the announcement of the Screen Actors Guild nominees, Brooks could have been considered an absolute lock for a nod. But then the SAG shook things up big time. Brooks might have scored most wins this season, but the SAG didn’t embrace Drive (Gosling missed out as well) and Brooks’ performance was shafted. Now it is far from being unheard of to miss a SAG nomination and yet score one at the Academy Awards. That’s what I expect to happen here. However it is impossible to call someone a lock who has missed on support from the industry. On the other hand, Brooks scored nominations at the BFCA and the Golden Globes (the only nod for Drive there). He also won at several prestigious critics’ awards, including New York, San Francisco and Boston. His against-the-type performance received tremendous support and it’d be extremely unusual for it to miss out on a nomination. In particular, one has to consider this category’s affinity towards villain roles (three of th three most recent winners here have played all-out villains). Brooks should be in and most likely he will be.
Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)– Here’s another likely nominee. Branagh is very respected in the industry and, like Michelle Williams in the same film, he’s playing a screen legend, Sir Laurence Olivier. He also managed to score the nominees trifecta of BFCA/SAG/Golden Globes. On top of that, it’s more than 20 years since he has last been nominated for his acting and he’ll definitely have the British in the Academy to rally behind him. Nevertheless, I will still refrain from calling him a lock as this category is currently truly muddled (outside of Plummer) and strange things can still happen.
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Nick Nolte (Warrior)– Nolte seemed strong when Warrior was released to solid reviews. It always seemed like the film should be recognized somewhere and Nolte was its best bet. Then the movie bombed, the awards season hit and there was little to no mention of Nolte at first, so that his turn seemed forgotten. It wasn’t until the Screen Actors Guild that the tide has turned for him (only, unlike in Brooks’ case, for the positive). He scored a nomination there in addition to a nod from the Broadcast Film Critics Association. Even though he missed out on a Golden Globe nomination (unexpectedly in favor of Viggo Mortensen), those two precursors are too strong to be ignored. Add to that the fact that he’s a two-time nominee who has yet to win and the aforementioned notice that the film will probably be honored somewhere, he seems like a good bet for a nod.
Also in the running:
Jonah Hill (Moneyball)– The star of Superbad, The Sitter and Get Him to the Greek as an Academy Awards nominee? As strange as it sounds, it could come true. Moneyball is enjoying a solid amount of support in many categories and Hill scored two important mentions – being given nods at the Globes and the SAG awards. The critics’ circles, however, have largely ignored him so far and he also seems to be the type that would be overlooked by the Academy afterall due to his comedic background. Naturally he remains very much in the race due to the two major precursors he managed to score, but he’s far from a given.
Armie Hammer (J. Edgar)– Here’s an oddity. While Hammer has appeared here and there at a few (less important) critics’ awards nominations lists no one has seriously considered him to be a contender. That until he was actually nominated in the category by the Screen Actors Guild. It seems like despite mediocre reception by the critics’ community and a lukewarm box-office, Eastwood’s newest film just won’t go down without a fight. While Leonardo DiCaprio is a much stronger contender for a major nomination in this film, Warner Bros definitely ramped up the awards for Hammer following the unexpected SAG nod. He’s still lacking support from elsewhere, but I really wouldn’t discount him. Never underestimate Eastwood!
Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)– Oswalt’s big on-screen break came with his role with the underseen, but well-received Big Fan two years ago. Now even though Charlize Theron is the lead in Jason Reitman’s newest film, many reviews call Oswalt the true heart of the movie as he is playing a much more sympathetic and relatable character. Oswalt scored a nod from the BFCA, but missed out on the biggies: Golden Globes and SAG. There is still enough precedent to be nominated without these two and keep in mind that Reitman’s two recent films scored a total of four nominations. With a crowded and more solidified Best Actress category, Oswalt looks like that film’s best shot at recognition. His performance was nominated by the critics in Chicago and he came in second in Los Angeles showing that there is some amount of recognition behind this turn.
Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)– The only mention he has received so far is a nod at the San Diego Film Critics awards. The main reason he is still mentioned here is simply by the virtue of having an Oscar-bait role in an Oscar-bait film and being insanely overdue (only one Oscar nomination in his entire career). What hurts him the most is that the veteran actor spot is already firmly filled by Christopher Plummer. I do believe that without Plummer, he’d have a better shot.
Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)– Mortensen is a previous nominee and he is playing Sigmund Freud in a David Cronenberg film afterall. However, the only recognition he received so far is the third place among the film critics in Los Angeles and a random Golden Globes nomination. He is big enough of a name to remain in the race, but I consider his shot to be rather far-fetched.
John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene)– Just like the film’s female star, Elizabeth Olsen, he seemed to have a bigger shot a while back. Now that the movie’s hype let down the only thing Hawkes has is an Oscar nod last year and a few mentions at some smaller critics’ circles. Enough to keep his name in the discussion, but not enough to consider him a serious competitor.
Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life)– That’s another unusual one. Double nominees have happened before (most recently Jamie Foxx thanks to category fraud back in 2004) and Pitt is a lock to be nominated for Moneyball. The question remains whether there is still enough hype left for his turn in The Tree of Life. That performance appeared on some critics’ lists as well, but it seems like his turn in Moneyball is overshadowing this by a lot. If the Academy decides to really embrace the movie, though, I wouldn’t count it out.
Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes)– Okay, this is clearly more of a movie nerd wet dream. Indeed, Serkis was nominated by the BFCA as well as by several other critics’ circles. However, I still firmly believe that we’re a long time away from the Academy honoring a motion capture performance in any way other then the Best Visual Effects Oscar.
My prediction:
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Nick Nolte (Warrior)
Albert Brooks (Drive)
Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)
Next up is Best Actor!
Check out the other entries in the series:
