Dear readers,
In the „Oscars 2011: Spotlight on…” series, I will highlight the state of the race in each of the eight major categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay.
After having devoted my last entry in this ongoing series to the Best Supporting Actress category, I will now turn to the Actress in a Leading Role category. Unlike the former, the likely nominees are more narrowed down here and the wealth is not being spread that much so far. Of course, there are always surprises. Just think of when Angelina Jolie was recognized for her performance in A Mighty Heart by the Screen Actors Guild, the Hollywood Foreign Press and the Broadcast Film Critics Association which all gave her a nod, yet missed out an Oscar nomination. She was snubbed in favor of Laura Linney for The Savages, even though Linney has missed out on all three. In other words, surprises can still happen in very unpredictable ways, but as it stands the field seems less competitive and more defined than in the Supporting Actress category.
Locks:
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)– It’s Meryl Streep (16 Oscar nominations) playing Margaret Thatcher in a movie distributed by the Weinsteins. ‘Nuff said. This was a strong player ever since the second it has been announced. The question is just – will she finally win again?
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn) – This is another absolutely clear case. An acclaimed two-time Oscar nominee is playing a Hollywood legend. She has scored nominations at the Golden Globes (where she will also win in the Comedy/Musical category), the SAG and the BFCA. Moreover, she is clearly leading the field as far as the critics’ awards so far are concerned. Williams has won in Boston, Washington D.C., Chicago, Toronto and Ls Vegas, just to name a few. In most years, I’d name her a clear frontrunner, but Streep’s “will she finally win again”-overdue status is so huge by now that I wouldn’t count her out at all.
Viola Davis (The Help) – Like the two actresses above, Davis also managed to score BFCA/SAG/HFPA nominations and has appeared consistently at all critics’ awards. She is the heart and soul of the movie which will be a big player in the acting categories. There is no way she will get snubbed.
Strong contenders:
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) – Glenn Close is a little bit of a curious case. For a while it seemed like she’d be a very strong contender. Afterall, it’s a legendary actress who has been nominated five times before, but has never won. Then the reviews for her film came in and were mixed at best. It became clear that the flick would be a hard sell. Following that, she failed to appear among the nominees in most critics’ circles. Even the Broadcast Film Critics Association ignored her despite squeezing six nominees into the Best Actress category. Then, suddenly, Close resurfaced with a Screen Actors Guild nomination and a nod at the Golden Globes. It shows that the performance has been seen. Close’s status as a legendary veteran actress is just too huge to ignore, but it is too early to call her a lock all circumstances considered.
Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk about Kevin) – By all means, Tilda Swinton should be considered a lock, having been nominated at the SAG, the BFCA and the Globes. It’s an acclaimed performance and Swinton is a former winner. She also managed to score Actress wins from the National Board of Review and in San Francisco among others. However, think of my Angelina Jolie example. She has scored very well with the precursors and got snubbed afterall. I am not saying that this will definitely happen here, but if any of those who has scored at all three biggies will be snubbed, I expect it to be Swinton. The movie’s distributor is tiny. Oscilloscope Pictures’ biggest film to date is The Messenger which made just around $1.1 million (though Woody Harrelson was nominated for his role in that film). We Need to Talk about Kevin is unlikely to do much better. Unlike Close, Swinton doesn’t have that veteran overdue status either. That said, she’s still very strong in the running and it is an impressive performance that is hard to ignore…but stranger omissions have happened.
Also in the running:
Charlize Theron (Young Adult) – The last Jason Reitman/Diablo Cody collaboration resulted in that film’s leading actress (Ellen Page in Juno) getting nominated for an Oscar as Best Actress. Will the success be repeated here? It doesn’t seem too likely. While Theron is a previous winner and two-time nominee who hasn’t been in an acclaimed role for a while now, the movie is being largely ignored so far. Theron did receive nods at the Globes (though in the Comedy/Musical category where it is easier to get in) and the BFCA, but missed out at the SAG. What might hurt her chances too is the fact that her character comes across as extremely unlikable, as opposed to Page’s Juno.
Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) – Mara is still a bit of a wild card at this point. It’ true that she has missed out at all the major precursors except for a Golden Globes nomination with the only other recognition for her performance being a random Best Actress win in St. Louis. However, the buzz for her performance is just building now and it wouldn’t surprise me if she becomes a dark horse in the race for a Best Actress nomination. She’s certainly the biggest threat to the otherwise strong-looking Top 5.
Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene) – A couple of months ago Olsen was considered almost a shoe-in, akin to last year’s Jennifer Lawrence for Winter’s Bone. However, Martha Marcy May Marlene fizzled at the box-office and ended up scoring far less awards buzz then initially expected. While the Broadcast Film Critics nominated her breakout performance, the Hollywood Foreign Press and the Screen Actors Guild showed her the cold shoulder. Her name still remains in play, but keeps getting less and less likely as time goes by and the Top 5 solidifies more and more.
Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia) – Dunst won Best Actress at the Cannes Film Festival earlier this year and came in second in Los Angeles as well as third in New York. Those are the main reasons why she is on here. Her turn in Melancholia is, without any doubt, the artistic highlight of her career, but she doesn’t seem to stand much of a chance against the competition, especially not in a movie like this one. Lars von Trier isn’t exactly the Academy’s favorite filmmaker.
My prediction:
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
Viola Davis (The Help)
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk about Kevin)
The column will return soon with the analysis of the Best Supporting Actor category. Stay tuned and until then feel free to comment!
Other articles in the series:
