Dear readers,
In the „Oscars 2011: Spotlight on…” series, I will highlight the state of the race in each of the eight major categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay.
Now that I’ve taken a look at the screenplay categories, let’s turn to this year’s acting categories and kick off with the extremely competitive Best Supporting Actress. This might be the year’s most open race as far as nominations and, even moreso, the winners go. There is absolutely no clear frontrunner for the win at the moment. The awards handed out so far spread the wealth big time with almost every single of the upcoming actresses having won at least something thus far. The same kind of competition goes for the nominations slots. There are few locks, but many strong contenders of which obviously not all will make it.
Locks:
Octavia Spencer (The Help)– Spencer is probably the category’s biggest shoe-in for a nomination. Having been mentioned at almost every single critics’ awards so far and having scored nominations from the Hollywood Foreign Press, the Screen Actors Guild and the Broadcast Film Critics Association, she’s an immensely strong contender. The Help will be nominated for several major awards, but it’s obvious that its strength lies in the acting. Spencer hasn’t won anything significant so far (her most notable award was given in Washington D.C.), but the consistency and the overall strength of this film’s cast (as showcased by four SAG nominations) will ensure a nod at the Academy Awards.
Jessica Chastain– Here’s a very curious case. I am absolutely certain that Chastain is going to end up an Academy Awards nominee this year in the Best Supporting Actress category, but it might be too early to tell with certainty which movie it will be for. Obviously the primary candidate remains The Help for which she has garnered BFCA, Golden Globe and SAG nominations. However, she did win for Take Shelter in Toronto, for The Tree of Life in Chicago whereas the film critics in New York and Los Angeles decided to honor for her all three performances. It has been Chastain’s big year and she’ll definitely end up with a nod, but it might be a different film that one would expect.
Strong contenders:
Bérénice Bejo (The Artist)– One might wonder why she is listed among strong contenders and not locks. Bejo scored the trio of SAG/BFCA/HFPA nominations as well so far, just like the two aforementioned actresses. However, looking at Mila Kunis’ turn in Black Swan last year, that doesn’t seem to guarantee a nomination at the Academy Awards and if any of these three actresses (the only ones to get all three nods) gets snubbed, it seems to be Bejo. Chastain seems impossible to ignore this year and Spencer’s showy and important role won’t be overlooked either. Now I still expect Bejo to be nominated, but I don’t consider her to be a lock just yet. While she has been consistently mentioned at almost all critics’ awards so far, she has yet to score a significant in too. However, the overall strength of the film (which is standing stronger than last year’s Black Swan) will likely ensure a nomination for her.
Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)– Under most circumstances, Woodley would have been considered a lock. Her performance is probably the most-awarded one among critics’ circles so far, including wins from the National Board of Review and the film critics in Houston and San Diego among others. She’s also a young, good-looking and promising newcomer which the Academy usually likes to recognize. The catch is, however, that she missed the important nomination at the Screen Actors Guild which makes it impossible to call her a lock. While that omission can still be overcome, she is no longer a sure thing.
Carey Mulligan (Shame)– Like Woodley, Mulligan has missed a nomination at the Screen Actors Guild. She also didn’t make it at the Globes, even though they have been a little more appreciative of Shame. Mulligan, however, managed to score a nod at the BFCA and received a fair amount of love in the critics’ circles so far. Obviously, that doesn’t count for much, but it does keep her name in the game. She has the benefit of being a previous nominee, but also the burden of her movie being a controversial NC-17. Moreover, Fassbender seems to be getting most of the buzz, leaving Mulligan somewhat in his shadow.
Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)– McTeer’s performance mostly flew under the radar until her rather surprising appearance among this year’s Screen Actors Guild nominees. That, along with her nomination at the Golden Globes makes her a strong candidate, even though she has been absent from most lists so far, including the BFCA nominees. The biggest hurdle to overcome for her is the miniscule distributor and the generally lukewarm response to the movie which definitely won’t set the box-office on fire.
Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)– This is a performance that, before the film’s release, pretty much no one expected to figure in the awards race, but here she is. Akin to Robert Downey Jr.’s turn in Tropic Thunder, honoring McCarthy’s performance might be the way to honor this breakout comedy hit. Unlike Downey Jr. (who was obviously overshadowed by Heath Ledger sweeping everything), McCarthy has won a fair share of awards so far, including wins in Las Vegas and Boston. On the other hand, she did surprisingly miss a nod at the Golden Globes, despite having scored at the SAG and the BFCA. She is still very much in play, but the competition is tough.
Also in the running:
Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus) – A name that has originally been expected to play a more prominent figure in the race, kind of disappeared from the radar recently. She did win in San Francisco, came in third in New York and got a few more mentions here and there, but missed the big ones (BFCA/SAG/Golden Globes). Nevertheless, I wouldn’t count her out. The supporting categories are known for surprises and off-the-radar nominees and those who are most likely to make the cut are veteran actors and actresses. Redgrave is a previous winner and six-time nominees, with her last nod going back to 1993 for Howards End. Back then, her name barely appeared anywhere at all too (she missed a nom at the Globes or BAFTA) and yet scored an Oscar nomination, so it is still possible.
Amy Ryan (Win Win)– Another previous nominee whose movie is picking up some steam. Her name has been mentioned a couple of times so far, but she doesn’t seem to be a serious contender with the film’s screenplay being its most likely (and only) nomination.
My prediction:
Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Jessica Chastain (The Help)
Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
Bérénice Bejo (The Artist)
I’ll be back soon with the Best Actress category.
Other articles in the series:
