Dear readers,
In the „Oscars 2011: Spotlight on…” series, I will highlight the state of the race in each of the eight major categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay.
Now that we have Best Original Screenplay out of the way, we can get to a fiercer and more muddled race – the Best Adapted Screenplay. While there are three movies here that seem to be assured nominees, after that the field is quite wide open, in particular for the final spot. There are more viable contenders and no clear way to tell which one is ahead.
What makes this category also quite interesting is the extremely close race for the win. It has become clear by now that The Descendants and Moneyball are the two major frontrunners by a landslide, but while they are ahead of everything else, there’s no telling between the two which one has the edge. Alexander Payne (The Descendants) and Steve Zaillian & Aaron Sorkin (Moneyball) are all previous winners with Sorkin having won just last year. There is no overdue factor to give one or the other the edge and so far both are neck-to-neck in the race. But let’s get on to the nominees first.
Locks:
The Descendants– This film has been considered a strong contender even before a single review has been released. Alexander Payne is a name usually associated with strong writing, having been nominated for his work on Election and won for his impeccable writing on Sideways. Once the awards season has started, the suspicions have been confirmed. Payne delivered yet another well-written piece and yet another strong awards contender overall. The National Board of Review has already honored the film’s screenplay, alongside the Southeastern film critics, St. Louis film critics, Washington D.C. film critics, Utah film critics and several other critics’ groups. Payne is certainly a force to be reckoned with, especially since his film is one of the few that stand a viable chance at winning the Best Picture award this year.
Moneyball– The dream team of Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zaillian is so far leading as far as the critics’ awards are concerned. Having won the critics’ awards in Boston, New York, Chicago and Las Vegas and scored the important nominations from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and the Broadcast Film Critics Association, it is as much of a lock as it can get. The only obstacle standing in its way of winning is the mere fact that Sorkin has just won last year. Without that, Moneyball would have been a far and away frontrunner.
Hugo– There isn’t much of a chance for John Logan’s screenplay which is based on Brian Selznik’s innovative source to win the award, but given the overall strength of the film, it is definitely in. The screenplay hasn’t won anything noteworthy so far, but was nominated at pretty much all awards, including nominations at the BFCA awards, the Chicago film critics awards and Phoenix film critics awards (where it got in over Moneyball). The film is a powerful awards contender and Logan will receive his third Academy Awards nomination to date.
Strong contenders:
The Help– The hugely successful adaptation of the bestselling book is the only film I’d put in this category. The film’s strength definitely lies in its acting and less so in its writing or directing which is why I cannot call it a complete lock yet. It hasn’t won anything to date, but has appeared at most critics awards in the Adapted Screenplay category. However, its appearances haven’t been as consistent as Hugo’s, The Descendants’ or Moneyball’s and it’s overall strength is also not at the same level as of those three films. It will still most likely score a nomination, but a snub wouldn’t completely shock me as the film is somewhat reminiscent of The Blind Side which ended up with only two nominations in total. The Blind Side was released in a stronger year for adapted screenplays, though.
Also in the running:
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy- This is where the field is getting muddy with no clear contender at the final spot. If asked a couple of months ago, Bridget O’Connor’s and Peter Straughan’s great adaptation of the complex classic spy novel by John Le Carré would have been named a certain nominee. However, as time went by the film’s chances at major awards dwindled faster than anyone could have ever expected. Its appearances at the critics groups’ awards have been sporadic at best. The only notable award its screenplay could score so far was from the San Francisco film critics. The film has been completely shut out by the Broadcast Film Critics Association and the Hollywood Foreign Press. The latter is particularly surprising as one would expect them to be more partial to this British film. I still wouldn’t count a late resurgence, though. The film looks to be doing rather well financially and its screenplay is one of its best shots to get nominated in any major category (along with Oldman for Best Actor, but that category is more crowded).
Drive– In Drive’s case many are speaking of style-over-substance. The film’s technical achievements are impeccable and its acting and directing are very impressive. However, it also managed to score accolades for its screenplay, including nominations in Chicago and San Diego. It has missed crucial nominations at the Globes and the BFCA awards. Moreover, the complete lack of recognition by the Screen Actors Guild shows that the industry support for the film is probably not very big. Nevertheless, Hossein Amini is a previous nominee and the film remains a potential contender here.
War Horse– War Horse has been written by two previous nominees as well (Richard Curtis and Lee Hall) and while nothing speaks directly in favor of a nomination here, it is Spielberg’s film afterall and if it is a hit with the audiences it could score a surprising nod here. It all depends on how big of an overall player the film will become which is still a bit hard to gauge right now.
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close– A few months ago the film has been considered a much stronger contender in most categories. Stephen Daldry has a terrific track record. He has been nominated for Best Director for each of the three movies he has ever directed. Two of them also scored Best Picture nods and all of them also garnered nominations for their screenplays. Eric Roth who has adapted Jonathan Safran Foer’s 9/11 novel is a previous winner and overall four-time nominee. However, the film’s critical reception has been mixed at best so far. While there is still a chance it’ll manage a turnaround like Daldry’s The Reader, it seems unlikely that the lightning will strike twice (or for the fourth time, as in Daldry’s case). The Broadcast Film Critics Association surprisingly gave the film four nominations, including Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay. Those are the only major mentions the film has received, though. The Globes have completely ignored it.
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo– Here’s another film that was expected to become a bigger player than it seems to be now. The reviews are mostly very good, but Steven Zaillian has a stronger horse in the race with Moneyball and I am not sure he’ll be nominated twice this year. So far Fincher’s film hasn’t really set the awards race on fire.
The Ides of March– The major (and only) reason the film is in here is because of its shockingly strong howing at the Golden Globes where it scored four nominations in major categories. Despite only five slots in the Screenplay category, it managed to sneak in there too. It hasn’t appeared anywhere else in the race, but if the Academy feels the need to reward this film somewhere, a screenplay nomination would be the most likely thing to happen.
My prediction:
The Descendants
Moneyball
Hugo
The Help
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Next up is the open race in the Best Supporting Actress category.
Other articles in the series:
