Dear readers,
In the „Oscars 2011: Spotlight on…” series, I will highlight the state of the race in each of the eight major categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay.
Now that some of the precursors have become known, primarily the Golden Globe nominees, the Screen Actors Guild nominees and the Broadcast Film Critics Association contenders, the picture of the race becomes clearer. However, unlike in the recent years there is barely a major category with a definite frontrunner. Now last year, of course, tells us that even a clear frontrunner at the beginning of the game can be dethroned by the time the big awards come around. However this is all part of the fun and this year, in particular, this is shaping up to have many intriguing close races. The “Oscars 2011: Spotlight on…” series will take you through the shoe-ins, strong contenders and remaining possibilities for each of the aforementioned categories. Starting today, the series will go on until the end of the year. Let me take off with Best Original Screenplay, a category last year easily won by the Best Picture winner, The King’s Speech.
Locks:
Midnight in Paris – This has been an absolute shoe-in for a nomination ever since it was released in May this year. This is Woody Allen in his masterful mode we’re talking about afterall. He already has 14 nominations for his writing under his belt and won twice before, last time for Hannah and Her Sisters. Midnight in Paris turned out to be his best-reviewed film since Vicky Cristina Barcelona and, more impressively, his all-time top-grossing movie domestically and that by a wide margin. Midnight in Paris truly became one of the word-of-mouth hits of the year and made Allen bigger than he has been since the 19080s. With The Artist being ineligible for a Writer’s Guild nomination, Midnight in Paris stands a terrific chance at taking that one home. So far it has only won at the Southeastern Critics awards and the San Diego Film Critics awards, but has been mentioned by almost every single critics group and received one of the five coveted Best Screenplay spots at the Golden Globes. The film is in and if The Artist fails to dominate everything it actually has a decent shot at winning Allen his third Screenplay Oscar.
The Artist – While ineligible for the Writer’s Guild Awards, Michel Hazanavicius’ screenplay is currently the slight frontrunner in this race and a nominee as definite as they come. It has been mentioned pretty much everywhere and won n Chicago and St. Louis among others. Being a definite Best Picture nominee of course helps things as well.
50/50 – While 50/50 doesn’t have the overall strength of the two definite nominees above – a Best Picture nomination is not happening here – the screenplay has received a lot of praise and will figure in the race. So far it has collected a number of accolades, including wins from the National Board of Review, Washington D.C. and Utah. The only glaring omission happened at the Golden Globes. Then again, having only five Screenplay nominees in total there makes things naturally more difficult. The movie has been embraced by audiences and critics alike and that’s a way to reward it for that. It has pretty much no chance to figure in any other categories, so it can only receive some love here.
Strong contenders:
Win Win – Tom McCarthy has become a very respectable filmmaker by now and he’s coming off two very well-received films – The Station Agent and The Visitor. The latter garnered a Best Actor nomination for Richard Jenkins back in 2008 and the former won McCarthy a BAFTA award for the Best Original Screenplay. McCarthy himself got a Best Screenplay nod for his work on Pixar’s Up. Of course, like it was the case with The Station Agent and The Visitor who have both collected accolades for their screenplays, but missed out at the Oscars, Win Win could miss too. Aside from being fairly small (it made just above $10 million domestically), it came out in spring and is just not fresh in the voters’ memory. On the other hand, the movie surprisingly resurfaced with the critics’ awards as it has scored Best Original Screenplay nominations from the Chicago film critics, Washington D.C. film critics and the BFCA among others and it actually won in Indiana where the film also scored a Best Actor win for Paul Giamatti. With several movies being ineligible for the Writer’s Guild Award, it’s a shoe-in for a nom there as well. However, The Station Agent and The Visitor scored WGA nominations, but missed out at the Oscars. If the film can keep the monumentum going, though, it’ll end up getting nominated.
Beginners – While the film’s definite Oscar nomination (and likely win) will go to Christopher Plummer for Best Supporting Actor, there is a very solid chance that it’ll also score a Best Original Screenplay nod. Unlike with 50/50 or Beginners, there is no necessity here to reward it with a Best Original Screenplay nomination as it’ll already receive recognition for Plummer’s work. It is also an even smaller film than Win Win, having grossed less than $6 million in North America and it has played in the summer. Small films have been nominated in this category before (look at several Mike Leigh films!), but it is still an obstacle. On the other hand, the category isn’t terribly strong and Beginners has received mentions in San Diego, Detroit and Phoenix, though it did miss a nomination at the BFCA. It is still very much in play, but far from being a lock.
Also in the running:
Margin Call – If this movie can overcome how small it is, it actually has the best shot out of this lower bunch. It has obviously been quite well-received and with the whole Occupy movement it is an extremely timely movie. The film’s director J. C. Chandor has received numerous “Best New Filmmaker” accolades, including those from the National Board of Review and the New York Film Critics Circle. Moreover, it won Best Original Screenplay in San Francisco and came in second in Indiana, so there is obviously some level of support there. On the other hand, it has been completely ignored at the BFCA and most other critics groups. It’s a tough call.
Young Adult – There are two reasons why this movie is in here. First of all, it’s a Jason Reitman/Diablo Cody collaboration. Their previous effort, Juno, has won Cody an Oscar. The second reason is a Best Original Screenplay nomination it has received from the Broadcast Film Critics Association, topping the likes of Margin Call and Beginners for that nod. On the other hand, the film’s cynical dark tone doesn’t sit well with everyone and it seems to get lost in the shuffle during this awards season. It’s definitely not out yet, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
The Tree of Life – Terrence Malick’s feature is a strong contender in many categories, but this one isn’t one of them. I’m placing it here mostly because of the overall possible strength of the film. The Tree of Life is more noted for its direction and technical achievements than its writing. Sure, it received a Best Original Screenplay nod from the Chicago film critics; but then again, they gave the film a total of seven nominations. It could happen, but only if the film is completely embraced by the Academy.
Martha Marcy May Marlene – For a while it looked like this might end up as this year’s Winter’s Bone. However, the initial hype died down pretty quickly as did Elizabeth Olsen’s shot at a Best Actress nomination. It might sneak in by surprise, but I wouldn’t count on it.
Bridesmaids - One of the year's biggest WoM hits has a shot in two categories - here and in Best Supporting Actress (Melissa McCarthy). However, the lack of appearances at most critics circle awards and the fact that despite huge financial success and great reviews neither The 40-Year-Old Virgin nor Knocked Up managed to score a nomination here don't bode all too well for a nomination. On the other hand, there's of course My Big Fat Greek Wedding, but I don't feel like Bridesmaids became a similar phenomenon.
My prediction:
The Artist
Midnight in Paris
50/50
Win Win
Margin Call
I’ll be back next with the Best Adapted Screenplay category.
Other articles in the series:
